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J-10 Thread IV
- Thread starter Jeff Head
- Start date
Mods merged two threads into one.
So it appears we were right in claiming the WS-10A/x not making its way onto J-10 in the past was indeed because PLAAF wanted 10 or so years of proven reliable service of WS-10A on J-11 before allowing it on a single engine fighter. I don't believe these WS-10 are too different from the WS-10A or whatever the latest variants are on Sino-flankers. That condition from PLAAF combined with a relatively limited production rate.
So it appears China did in fact totally master the design and manufacturing of high thrust turbofan back around 2012. WS-10 isn't a 2020 success story, it's a ~2010 success story just proven now. All those haters and trollers can eat it but they're probably wallowing in a world of delusion still. Of course this isn't to say a WS-10A/x is equal technology to something like a F110, especially when it comes to MTBO and lifespan.
So it appears China did in fact totally master the design and manufacturing of high thrust turbofan back around 2012. WS-10 isn't a 2020 success story, it's a ~2010 success story just proven now. All those haters and trollers can eat it but they're probably wallowing in a world of delusion still. Of course this isn't to say a WS-10A/x is equal technology to something like a F110, especially when it comes to MTBO and lifespan.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
I don't think it is the same engine as early WS 10A. Installing it on J10C show that the engine has reached maturity from the earlier design in term or reliability and MTBF thru incremental improvement in material science and engineering. I mean they have been working on it close to 30 years now and that is the average number of years for high performance engine to reach maturity. So it is about the right time. so ignore all those western insult . People in the know like Henri K has no such delusion. I have been saying that for years there is no shortcut They just have to sweat it out
On remarquera qu'il s'agit d'un J-10C équipé du moteur chinois WS-10, et non du moteur russe AL-31 FN Serie 3 comme sur des lots précédents. L'application du WS-10 sur un appareil mono-réacteur témoigne son entrée en maturité. 1 1 5
ENGLISH
Note that this is a J-10C equipped with the Chinese WS-10 engine, and not the Russian AL-31 FN Serie 3 engine as in previous lots. The application of the WS-10 on a single-engine plane testifies to its maturity. 1 1 5
So where are we with J10 production now overall?
Roughly 300+ J10A/S by the time J10B/C/S production took over. That was when exactly? 2014? 2015?
We had first images of batch 03 (after batch 01 for J10B, and batch 02 for first J10C) in october 2018.
Now, roughly year and a half later, we have first images of batch 05.
Batches numbers were usually around 50 or so, with the exception of batch 02 which had one number going all the way to 75.
Hard to assess how many planes were indeed in a batch. Here's just one possibility:
Batch 01 (B model) - 50 airframes.
Batch 02 (c model) 75 airframes
batch 03 50-75 ?
batch 04 50-75?
And now batch 05 deliveries might be ongoing.
That's roughly 225 to 275 B and C models (mostly C) spotted from very late 2013 to end of 2019. Probably closer to 275, rather than 225.
That period of six years suggests production rate of possibly up to 45 airframes per year.
That's not counting the S models still being produced. If there's still 4 S models per each 28 airframe strong unit, that's possibly 40 more S models produced during the same time. With overall production going over 300 airframes.
Counting in the batch 05 and the fact I was rounding down stuff and being conservative, I wouldn't be surprised that to this day there've been 650 J10A/B/C/S produced so far.
I would think that the number of J7s in PLAAF must be sharply dropping. I strongly suspect there's not a single old generation J7 in service anymore.
Roughly 300+ J10A/S by the time J10B/C/S production took over. That was when exactly? 2014? 2015?
We had first images of batch 03 (after batch 01 for J10B, and batch 02 for first J10C) in october 2018.
Now, roughly year and a half later, we have first images of batch 05.
Batches numbers were usually around 50 or so, with the exception of batch 02 which had one number going all the way to 75.
Hard to assess how many planes were indeed in a batch. Here's just one possibility:
Batch 01 (B model) - 50 airframes.
Batch 02 (c model) 75 airframes
batch 03 50-75 ?
batch 04 50-75?
And now batch 05 deliveries might be ongoing.
That's roughly 225 to 275 B and C models (mostly C) spotted from very late 2013 to end of 2019. Probably closer to 275, rather than 225.
That period of six years suggests production rate of possibly up to 45 airframes per year.
That's not counting the S models still being produced. If there's still 4 S models per each 28 airframe strong unit, that's possibly 40 more S models produced during the same time. With overall production going over 300 airframes.
Counting in the batch 05 and the fact I was rounding down stuff and being conservative, I wouldn't be surprised that to this day there've been 650 J10A/B/C/S produced so far.
I would think that the number of J7s in PLAAF must be sharply dropping. I strongly suspect there's not a single old generation J7 in service anymore.
Hmmm?? ... I have - similar to the J-16 - a slightly lower estimation
Given they are indeed all with 75, then we would have at least three Batches (aka 02, 03 & 04) with 75 Aircraft each = 225 + 56 J-10B (Batch 01) = 281 J-10B/Cs at all.
This would be enough for 10 Brigades (with each 28 single seater) ... problem is, that we only have 7 Brigades (= est. 196-200 ac.) confirmed, which would better fit to lower numbers like about 56 in batch 01, 76 in Batch 02 and about 40 in Batches 3 & 4 making 212 J-10B/C alltogether.