J-10 Thread IV

[TerraN_EmpirE]

Ukraine and Iraq are of interest for this I think. But that's just like My opinion man.
The Ukranian Airforce is not in great shape and the Crimea base was home to a good chunk of there aircraft. Most of what was left is old. They have been working to referb what they can but that will only last so long. Still money is an issue.

Iraq got F16 off the US but likely with the same restrictions that the US sold Abrams to them with. The Iraqis traded in Abrams for T90 because the Russians don't care unless you try to fight them.

 

[Biscuits]

They’re not gonna sell them to Ukraine, that’s really bad for Russia.

And selling an advanced fighter to Iraq sounds like a good way to piss off Iran, which has been cautiously setting itself up as the next Pakistan for the last 5 years or so. Total waste of a potential ally.

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

They’re not gonna sell them to Ukraine, that’s really bad for Russia

Reasons I say Ukraine is we already have heard of some partnerships between the Ukraine and PRC. I consider a possibility but no a solid one. We have seen of late a jump in popularity to F16 Block 70 In the region to and there is the other 4++ gens that could get on a potential list. Still where would the money come from.

And selling an advanced fighter to Iraq sounds like a good way to piss off Iran, which has been cautiously setting itself up as the next Pakistan for the last 5 years or so. Total waste of a potential ally.

Iran and Iraq are actually closer now than at any point in the last century.
In the recent conflict Iran was the country that came in after the Army fell apart and set up Militia forces based on their own model. They even gave access to these militia of American made weapons for a period of time.
Also the Iraqis were sold and delivered F16 Block 52. So the Iraqis Air Force already has more advanced fighters than the Iranian Air force I would go so far as to say potentially on par with a export knock down of J10. During reconstruction of the Iraqi airforce the Iranians were asked to return some of the Iraqi bird they captured. The Iranians were at least partial to the deal and did send back some aircraft. So Iran doesn't seem to view Iraq as the threat it used to.

J10CE isn't likely to get into the Iranian Airforce any time in the near term and the Iraqis also don't seem in the market now I admit but a sale to Iraq is almost a back door sale to Iran these days.

 

[Hyperwarp]

people, any chit-chat on a J-10C successor? Is the J-10D happening?

 

[Deleted member 13312]

Reasons I say Ukraine is we already have heard of some partnerships between the Ukraine and PRC. I consider a possibility but no a solid one. We have seen of late a jump in popularity to F16 Block 70 In the region to and there is the other 4++ gens that could get on a potential list. Still where would the money come from.


Iran and Iraq are actually closer now than at any point in the last century.
In the recent conflict Iran was the country that came in after the Army fell apart and set up Militia forces based on their own model. They even gave access to these militia of American made weapons for a period of time.
Also the Iraqis were sold and delivered F16 Block 52. So the Iraqis Air Force already has more advanced fighters than the Iranian Air force I would go so far as to say potentially on par with a export knock down of J10. During reconstruction of the Iraqi airforce the Iranians were asked to return some of the Iraqi bird they captured. The Iranians were at least partial to the deal and did send back some aircraft. So Iran doesn't seem to view Iraq as the threat it used to.

J10CE isn't likely to get into the Iranian Airforce any time in the near term and the Iraqis also don't seem in the market now I admit but a sale to Iraq is almost a back door sale to Iran these days.

All of this points to one reality, the one in which the J-10 has little or no opportunity in the export market. This is certainly not from a lack of trying, goodness knows CAC had done more than it's fair share of marketing effort already, nor is it one of which the J-10 is lacking. It is just that there is little interest for another F-16 esque fighter in the world right now, which is already inundated by it and a multitude of other cheaper alternatives.

 

[gelgoog]

people, any chit-chat on a J-10C successor? Is the J-10D happening?

I have not heard anything but there was the TVC demonstrator some time ago. The question is which systems or changes would warrant a new type entering production? I can think of a couple of things. The TVC engine, conformal fuel tanks, improved avionics and side looking radar. But the question is would it have enough performance advantage to justify a new model? Personally I would rather use the TVC demonstrator in a single engine heavyweight drone and focus on a stealthy airframe to replace the J-10. I think the J-10 design has reached the limits of what's doable with that airframe.

 

[vesicles]

All of this points to one reality, the one in which the J-10 has little or no opportunity in the export market. This is certainly not from a lack of trying, goodness knows CAC had done more than it's fair share of marketing effort already, nor is it one of which the J-10 is lacking. It is just that there is little interest for another F-16 esque fighter in the world right now, which is already inundated by it and a multitude of other cheaper alternatives.

I am sorry but I am still very confused as to what efforts the CAC has made to market the J-10. I am not advocating one way or another about the quality of the J-10. It is possible that the J-10 is so advanced that the Chinese don't want anyone else to have it. It is also possible that the quality of the J-10 is so poor that China doesn't want anyone else to know about the severe weaknesses of the fighter. No matter which one, or somewhere in between, the quality of the J-10 is not an issue here.

I am not in any way questioning / guessing a potential rationale for why they want to / don't want to sell the fighter. What I question is the actual evidence that China has been marketing the J-10. It seems to me that most of the supposed evidence comes from potential buyers wanting to buy / interested in considering the J-10, but not CAC/China wanting to sell it. Sending the J-10 to air shows is not evidence of marketing the plane. They've sent the J-20 to air shows. I don't think anyone would ever consider that as evidence that the Chinese want to sell their J-20...

I can clearly see that China and Pakistan want to sell the JF-17. We've seen solid evidence that they are actively marketing the JF-17. I myself have not seen any similar effort on the J-10. Most of the cited evidence for the J-10 use soft languages, such as "rumored" etc. When someone wants to sell something, they want people to know about it. The Chinese and the Pakistanis have made very clear that they want to sell their JF-17 and actively advertise the fighter. "Secretly marketing a product" seems not a good strategy for selling anything...

 

[Biscuits]

I am sorry but I am still very confused as to what efforts the CAC has made to market the J-10. I am not advocating one way or another about the quality of the J-10. It is possible that the J-10 is so advanced that the Chinese don't want anyone else to have it. It is also possible that the quality of the J-10 is so poor that China doesn't want anyone else to know about the severe weaknesses of the fighter. No matter which one, or somewhere in between, the quality of the J-10 is not an issue here.

I am not in any way questioning / guessing a potential rationale for why they want to / don't want to sell the fighter. What I question is the actual evidence that China has been marketing the J-10. It seems to me that most of the supposed evidence comes from potential buyers wanting to buy / interested in considering the J-10, but not CAC/China wanting to sell it. Sending the J-10 to air shows is not evidence of marketing the plane. They've sent the J-20 to air shows. I don't think anyone would ever consider that as evidence that the Chinese want to sell their J-20... I can clearly see that China and Pakistan want to sell the JF-17. We've seen solid evidence that they are actively marketing the JF-17. I myself have not seen any similar effort on the J-10.

They have not marketed it themselves, but there have been persistent rumors of supposed sales.

Most likely it is a combination of both factors. The J10 is very advanced, but not advanced enough to always merit the costs potential buyers must pay.

Bear in mind that the domestic flyaway cost is heavily lowered due to state ownership. Foreign buyers don’t have that advantage.

It is rumored that Bangaledesh is in negotiation to buy a squad (12-18) of J10CE.
This is supposed to cost 1 billion $ in loans + undisclosed sum up front.

We are looking about 75-100 million $+ per piece. That can almost buy you a F-35 if you are on good terms with America.

Most countries looking to buy right now either want fast ticket into stealth or something to lob bombs at insurgents. The J-10 ain’t the former and is way too expensive for the latter.

Bangladesh is a special case since they don’t really have a chance to get 5th gen but needs something to take on India’s droves of 4th gen. That’s the situation J-10 was built to handle.

 

[vesicles]

They have not marketed it themselves, but there have been persistent rumors of supposed sales.

Most likely it is a combination of both factors. The J10 is very advanced, but not advanced enough to always merit the costs potential buyers must pay.

Bear in mind that the domestic flyaway cost is heavily lowered due to state ownership. Foreign buyers don’t have that advantage.

It is rumored that Bangaledesh is in negotiation to buy a squad (12-18) of J10CE.
This is supposed to cost 1 billion $ in loans + undisclosed sum up front.

We are looking about 75-100 million $+ per piece. That can almost buy you a F-35 if you are on good terms with America.

Most countries looking to buy right now either want fast ticket into stealth or something to lob bombs at insurgents. The J-10 ain’t the former and is way too expensive for the latter.

Bangladesh is a special case since they don’t really have a chance to get 5th gen but needs something to take on India’s droves of 4th gen. That’s the situation J-10 was built to handle.

Persistent rumors would not be a sign of any organization doing "more than its fair share" of marketing anything. IMHO, "more than its fair share" of marketing would most likely include, at least, loudly blasting advertisement of their product. Maybe even some begging and offering huge deals, like 50-80% discounts, etc. Persistent rumors about some negotiation sound to me like a lackluster effort to sell anything. If I hired a marketing manager to sell something for me and all I've heard is some rumors about my product being potentially on the market, I would fire his a$$ immediately...

 

[azretonov]

Ukraine and Iraq are of interest for this I think. But that's just like My opinion man.
The Ukranian Airforce is not in great shape and the Crimea base was home to a good chunk of there aircraft. Most of what was left is old. They have been working to referb what they can but that will only last so long. Still money is an issue.

Ukraine is an unlikely customer due to:
•The US involvement in Kiev's decision-making process.
•Russia would almost immediately object such an attempt due to the nature of their relationship with China in the long run.
•Ukraine seriously lacks the economic power to proceed with such procurement. Preferring second-hand western aircrafts would do them more good considering roughly 2/3 of the country is in range of Russian air defence systems.

Sorry for sailing off the topic for a moment. My point is that potential customers for J-10, are either poor or lies within the Russian sphere of influence. And I don't actually believe Chinese actually try to market this aircraft. They're more invested in JF-17 story, IMO.