I think most people don't look at it logistically and think that the moment a new design is certified you can churn out hundreds of them per year to reasonably replace existing forces. That or they don't comprehend that a functional and effective airforce isn't just the designs which are employed but the size of your forces, which in terms of modern designs China is seriously lacking in. In brief it seems most people don't have a concept of a "phase in".
J-10 Thread III (Closed to posting)
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Roger604
Senior Member
The best argument I've read is that China no longer needs large numbers of point defense fighters because its entire strategic posture has changed from human wave style J-7 air defense to information and electronic warfare air defense.
In keeping with the generation-skipping theme I discussed earlier (think of China putting together a high-speed train system far ahead of other developed countries), China should use long range missiles for aircraft defense similar to S-400 together with long range fighter aircraft. In other words, bring China's defense doctrine closer to that of military powers like NATO and Russia.
Long range fighter aircraft could be J-20. I suppose it could also be a radically modified twin engine long range J-10. The single engined J-10 is too short-legged. Would it be cheaper to produce a high-lo combination? Or would it be cheaper to have just one production line for J-20 and pump out lots of them?
So it's entirely possible China is moving toward a fully networked advanced air defense system deployed anti-aircraft long range missiles, anti-cruise missile medium range missiles and mid-course ballistic missile defense. The spearhead will be the J-20, backed by AWACs and lots of UAVs.
In keeping with the generation-skipping theme I discussed earlier (think of China putting together a high-speed train system far ahead of other developed countries), China should use long range missiles for aircraft defense similar to S-400 together with long range fighter aircraft. In other words, bring China's defense doctrine closer to that of military powers like NATO and Russia.
Long range fighter aircraft could be J-20. I suppose it could also be a radically modified twin engine long range J-10. The single engined J-10 is too short-legged. Would it be cheaper to produce a high-lo combination? Or would it be cheaper to have just one production line for J-20 and pump out lots of them?
So it's entirely possible China is moving toward a fully networked advanced air defense system deployed anti-aircraft long range missiles, anti-cruise missile medium range missiles and mid-course ballistic missile defense. The spearhead will be the J-20, backed by AWACs and lots of UAVs.
The problem is even with the changing air defence doctrine you're going to need at least a couple of hundred fighters to cover the air defence need of such a large territory (and with so many borders too). That's even belying the problem of what you're going to fill in for your air force while you wait to churn out those new generation fighters. Procurement schedules for an entire air force can span a decade or more after initial roll out date. 2020 may be when production begins, but that's certainly not when a new generation fighter can replace older airframes in a sizable number.
Well...let's see. It's also because they weren't facing an opponent with advanced radar, and it's also because the air force hadn't yet phased in the F-22 before air power had served its purpose in those conflicts.
EDIT: Soo....what does this have to do with the J-10?
Well...let's see. It's also because they weren't facing an opponent with advanced radar, and it's also because the air force hadn't yet phased in the F-22 before air power had served its purpose in those conflicts.
EDIT: Soo....what does this have to do with the J-10?
You just answered your own question. His point was that there is still a place for the J-10 even with the J-20 around... such as for instance when China isn't facing an opponent with advanced radar and when the PLAAF wouldn't quite phased in the J-20 yet even years after IoC.
Right, but I think the US would have used F-22s if they were phased in regardless of whether the enemy used advanced radars or not, so the notion that they wouldn't have done so because they were 150 million dollar planes I think is wrong.
That's what you think. With only 187 of them around, allow me to express skepticism. Consider the operational requirement of the Raptor. In any case what you think does not constitute evidence.
Regardless, however, he's already more or less proven his point. The F-22 has been around for over a decade now and achieved IoC with squadron strength half a decade after. Projecting this to the J-20 it puts us at the mid 2020s at the most optimistic estimation... and in the 15 years in between, it'll be J-10s and J-11s.
Roger604
Senior Member
With a combat radius of 1000 to 1500km, 300 J-20 would be enough to defend China. You don't need to constantly patrol every single inch of territory, and most critical points are covered by 300+ km range SAM anyway.
With 300+ J-20, I really question whether China will need any other fighter. Instead, it should shift its focus toward a heavy stealth fighter-bomber, like T-50.
J-20 is already in flight testing. I'm sure we will see it enter service in 3 to 5 years. During those 3 to 5 years, PLAAF can keep making J-11B and J-10A with domestic engines.
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