Issues/Problems the PLA needs to address

Totoro said:

How will China bankrupt its economy if it keeps its spending (gdp ratio) at half the US spending? USSR was closing in at 20% of its GDP near the end - China is nowhere even close to that point. Increasing the manned combat plane fleet by 50%, even if all other expenses remain the same, would require at most one sixth of current military expenses. So a jump to, say, 2,5% of GDP. At most.

Realistically though, PLA's ground force will be downsized and a few hundred thousand people on salary will be cut in a matter of a decade. That in itself might be enough for a few dozen planes extra to be bought AND operated per year.

I am not saying that will necessarily happen, i am just pointing out it is possible.

I don't see why would it be prudent for Chinese air forces to further decrease numbers by 2040 when it's pretty evident the neighboring countries and US are not planning to decrease their numbers by a significant margin.

2800 figure is combined figure of S. Korea, Taiwan, Japan and realistically available inventories of USN, USMC and USAF for overseas missions. Give or take a few hundred. Again, that is not saying such an alliance will necessary happen, but it is a possibility that should not be taken lightly and should planned against.

The same way China can use its missiles against bases, the opponents can use their sizeable inventories (10.000+ cruise missiles) against Chinese bases near the coastline. It's always a two way street.

To be frank, 10.000 cruise missiles, even if all were used against air bases, isn't enough to neutralize even 50% of chinese bases for a month or more (as daily re-attacks are needed). In the same way, chinese missile force (less numerous by half at least) is not enough to neutralize opponent's bases.

So there won't be ample coverage of enemy's bases by chinese missiles. That missile force is a small part of the attacking force with a relatively short span of effectiveness. Continued and persistant air strikes by planes are going to be needed by both sides to keep the other side neutralized.

If the mentioned alliance materializes (which it may not) there may indeed be many bases available, enough for the mentioned 2800 figure. Actually, with civilian airports being used as well, the limiting factor to the 2800 figure will be support crews and not lack of airstrips.

I shall not go into multi-year war and industrial capacity discussion as it is way too broad of a topic and is subject to far too many variables. (China's allies? markets available to china, supporting its economy during world war?)

I have tried not to mention any specific countries as enemies in the previous post and their mention in this post is purely for clarification purpose. There is no intention of dragging any nationalistic discussion into this thread. I am merely trying to argue for a percieved need of a larger combat aircraft fleet, due to possible (But realistic) future threat/requirement set.

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kwaigonegin said:

PLA's defence speeding will surely increase in the future regardless of acquisition. As China's cost of living increase so will salaries and other personnel related cost. This is especially so if it were to compete with the private sector for qualified candidates.
As china moves yet closer to a fully industrialized nation status, they will find that a bigger pice of the pie will go towards soft costs and not all tanks planes and ships LOL.

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Blackstone said:

PLA was modeled on the Soviet military, and one item is too many commissioned officers and not enough career NCOs. Anyone know if that's being addressed in a serious way under Xi's reforms? Any concrete evidence of that?

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Hendrik_2000 said:

That is an outdated view . They have introduced NCO for a long time 10 or more years and now they actively recruit NCO
Chine Brief from Jamestown foundation has a lot of article about NCO

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Here is the timeline
A 2003 initiative for the special enlistment of civilians from colleges and advanced technical schools directly into the NCO corps. In 2008 the PLA press reported that the number of these special enlistments had reached more than 10 percent of the NCOs recruited each year (PLA Daily, November 4, 2009; November 12, 2008).
• The 2003 CMC “Strategic Project for Talented People” with a twenty-year plan to professionally develop officers and NCOs to support a modern military (Xinhua, December 27, 2004).
• A 2004 regulation establishing and optimizing schools for intermediate- and senior-grade specialized technical NCOs (PLA Daily, April 20; October 13, 2004).
• A 2005 "guidance" to improve the allocation, selection, training, education and management of NCOs, and create yearly NCO awards to recognize achievements and boost morale (PLA Daily, January 25, 2005).
• Reforms in 2008 addressing continuing quality and capability issues regarding training and education, skill evaluation, management procedures, marriage, social insurance and housing. The General Staff Department also established a NCO selection registration system in an attempt to eliminate abuses in the selection process (PLA Daily, November 1, 2008; Xinhua, September 22, 2008).
• Continued efforts in 2009 to improve qualifications and increase the numbers of NCOs in high-tech units. Reforms included the establishment of the current seven ranks for NCOs, increased pay and subsidies and plans to recruit more graduates with three-year civilian college diplomas while relying less on promoting enlisted personnel who have generally consisted of middle school graduates with only nine years of education or high school graduates with 12 years of education (Xinhua, July 14, 2009; PLA Daily, July 13, 2009).
• A 2010 regulation implementing a position qualification system for specialized technical NCOs and increased stipends tied to skill levels (PLA Daily, August 30, 2010).
• A revised regulation issued in mid-2011 to further improve the NCO assignment process and benefits, including those for retirement/demobilization. The PLA stated the revision was to further intensify NCO reforms and "fundamentally resolve contradictions and issues existing in the building of the NCO contingent," indicating continuing problems. The PLA noted unfair NCO selection methods and the poor quality of the candidates as two of the issues being addressed (PLA Daily, July 10; June 27).
• Announcement of a new NCO selection qualification system to be implemented by 2012 establishing statutes, appraisal organizations and examination standards, database and management system to ensure the required professional skills for NCO posts (PLA Daily, January 25). - See more at:

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PanAsian said:

A long but good article on strategic issues surrounding Indian SOFs despite a hefty dose of anti-China and China threat bias.

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Anti-corruption inspections to root out falsifying of military training data take on added importance in drive to boost forces’ combat-readiness

China’s People’s Liberation Army is ridden with “peace disease”, its official newspaper has said as efforts are stepped up to address a lack of battle-readiness and anti-graft measures continue to stamp out corruption of its military drills.

According to the People’s Liberation Army Daily in an editorial on Monday, “peace disease” has infiltrated every corner of the PLA since its last battles, with Vietnam in the late 1970s, threatening to undermine the fighting capability of what is the world’s largest military.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered the military to boost its combat-readiness in response to concerns that officers lack the required competence after having not engaged in battle for decades. Xi has launched reforms including downsizing the army and placing greater emphasis on training.

To prevent some military officials falsifying training data, the Central Military Commission (CMC) has since November been sending military disciplinary officers – representing the PLA’s anti-graft watchdog – to the army’s five theatre commands as inspectors, to monitor drills.

“Peace disease has been a common symptom in our military for decades,” the PLA Daily editorial read. “If we do not make up our mind to eliminate those evils, we must pay a heavy cost in the event of a war.

“We can only stop a war when we are able to fight.”

It stressed that the country was facing greater security threats and unprecedented global variables, and added: “Let the army get back on the right track, concentrating on combat-ready training.”

Xi, who chairs the CMC, has ordered the PLA to be transformed into a world-class fighting force in the next three decades.

That ambitious goal requires the military to learn from its Western counterparts, especially the United States, and to conduct regular and intensive live-fire drills – with the inspectors sent to try to ensure the drills’ integrity.

The shift has come as China increasingly flexes its military muscle in the disputed South China Sea, and establishes missions further away, such as setting up a military hub in the east African nation of Djibouti.

Retired PLA colonel Yue Gang said the military was reminding its officers that the Communist Party’s anti-corruption drive was shifting from “capturing big tigers [senior officials]” to “prohibiting omission”.

“Apart from corruption, job omission is the next key symptom of ‘peace disease’ in the Chinese military that should be cured,” Yue said, referring to some military commanders’ creation of fake data relating to routine military drills.

PLA party representatives from the ground force of the Fuzhou-based Eastern Theatre Command in Fujian province selected a new batch of anti-graft officers on Friday to monitor military drills.

The theatre is the former power base of Xi, who spent more than 17 years there before he was promoted as Zhejiang party chief in 2002.

The Eastern Theatre Command is one of the five war zones of the PLA, covering Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Shanghai and East Sea Fleet.

The statement said the ground forces in the Eastern Theatre Command would make efforts to comply with Xi’s order to focus on combat-ready training.

Yue said the Eastern Theatre Command’s pledge would be promoted to China’s other four theatres, in the central, south, west and east.

“The message is clear: inactive military officials involved in falsification will be sent to military courts and punished by law, which is definitely stricter than previous years,” Yue said, adding that officials found guilty of misconduct in the past had received a warning, or been told to make a repentant admission.

“Being an uncorrupted official does not mean you are qualified in the army. The treatment and benefits given to Chinese servicemen and women is in line with international standards, and so we should expect the training for them to also meet international levels. Otherwise, there will be serious consequences for the military.”

The anti-graft movement has brought down two former CMC vice-chairmen, Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou, who were the most senior military officers investigated for buying and selling military ranks and other forms of corruption.

At least 13,000 military officers involved in corruption have been punished over the past five years, the PLA Daily reported in October.

Military drills during Guo and Xu’s terms in the early 2000s were routine and often conducted for show and profit, with more drills translating to more funding and commanders involved in well-received drills boosting their chances of being promoted – practices that were later identified as harmful by Xi.

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