Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

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Barefoot

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obj 705A said:
talking about defeating the Houthis is as realistic as talking about defeating the Taliban.
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It's not about killing every last one of them, or whatever a "defeat" may mean to you, me or anyone else, it's about stopping them firing those missiles and drones etc. I'm sure the US will be quite satisfied for them to be playing in the sand with whoever they may.

We hear reports of how the US is running out of missiles (today in the NYT?), just like we did with Russia, but the Houthi fire ending up like the fire from Hamas and Hezbollah is far more likely.

obj 705A said:
you talk as if Iran and co actually wanted or expected the 7th of october attack to happen. neither Iran nor Hezbollah wanted or were expecting Hamas to attack and that is exactly why Hamas attacked.
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It's a matter of them being ineffective and then being picked off one by one. One answer to preventing that might have been for them all to have coordinated their efforts.

[Edit: Can you remmeber the rhetpric coming out of Hezbollah, their bragging about how many rockets they had and all those seemingly endless warnings they gave, then on the day they were eventually going to fire a large barrage of missiles, something they telegraphed and advertised (i think they even gave a time of day they were going to fire them), Israel bombed the shit out them as if they already had the coordinates of all the launchers, they were locked and loaded, ready and waiting. Its dumb, really really dumb. The pager thing was dumb, the Nasrallah assassination was dumb. They must have someone on the inside helping Israel, right? I just think the Houthis are next, and no one is going to help them, that there is no need for an attack on Iran, because Iran is not a threat, not doing anything, and likely somone in Iran is helping US/Israel]

So anyone can blah blah blah about just how brave they are and tehir resilence, how Hamas and Hezbollah havnt been defeated because some of them are still alive, how Israel's weakness was exposed and its demise is imminent blah blah blah - like a spiders web or something, etc etc.

Nasrallah, gone. I didnt even mention Ismail Haniyah, killed while he was in Iran! Israel has continued its occupation of Syria, etc etc etc. I could go on, and on, and on

I dont want to keep repeating myself, so lets just wait and see what happens
 
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obj 705A

obj 705A

Junior Member
Registered Member
Barefoot said:
It's not about killing every last one of them, or whatever a "defeat" may mean to you, me or anyone else, it's about stopping them firing those missiles and drones etc. I'm sure the US will be quite satisfied for them to be playing in the sand with whoever they may.
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I specifically said the US can't achieve the objective of stopping the Houthis from interrupting the shipping with strategic bombers and DDGs because Yemen will overlook Bab Al-Mandeb for as long the earth exists because that is how geography works.
you have to kick the Houthis out of central Yemen all the way to Saada and DDGs cannot do that. you have to have a massive ground force to do that.
 
B

Barefoot

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obj 705A said:
I specifically said the US can't achieve the objective of stopping the Houthis from interrupting the shipping with strategic bombers and DDGs because Yemen will overlook Bab Al-Mandeb for as long the earth exists because that is how geography works.
you have to kick the Houthis out of central Yemen all the way to Saada and DDGs cannot do that. you have to have a massive ground force to do that.
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They can overlook all they want, they can wave and do a merry dance, show their arses, they can even tweet about it.

But can they keep producing (and firing) missiles and drones [edit: I dunno, maybe there is a direct tunnel to a factory in Iran?]


[Two different views here; you think that as long as some Houthis remain they will keep firing drones and missiles, and you base that on the idea that the Houthis have large secret impenetrable undergound factories with endless supplies of suitable materials? I think they will run out of that capability one way or the other and do not have to be kicked out for the missiles and drones to stop because and no one is going to help them, not Iran, not anyone. Let's see what happens]
 
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tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member
sheogorath said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1908189593708445705
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Turkey has more than enough power beat the crap out of Israel. But the question is if they are willing or not. If they are, then they should openly declare that they will establish bases and if Israel attacks then they will shoot back. But we will see if they have the will or not.

Turkey has the potential reestablish the ottoman empire like influence by slowly taking over Syria, Lebanon and eventually putting serious pressure on Israel.
 
M

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
Barefoot said:
It's not about killing every last one of them, or whatever a "defeat" may mean to you, me or anyone else, it's about stopping them firing those missiles and drones etc. I'm sure the US will be quite satisfied for them to be playing in the sand with whoever they may.

We hear reports of how the US is running out of missiles (today in the NYT?), just like we did with Russia, but the Houthi fire ending up like the fire from Hamas and Hezbollah is far more likely.



It's a matter of them being ineffective and then being picked off one by one. One answer to preventing that might have been for them all to have coordinated their efforts.

[Edit: Can you remmeber the rhetpric coming out of Hezbollah, their bragging about how many rockets they had and all those seemingly endless warnings they gave, then on the day they were eventually going to fire a large barrage of missiles, something they telegraphed and advertised (i think they even gave a time of day they were going to fire them), Israel bombed the shit out them as if they already had the coordinates of all the launchers, they were locked and loaded, ready and waiting. Its dumb, really really dumb. The pager thing was dumb, the Nasrallah assassination was dumb. They must have someone on the inside helping Israel, right? I just think the Houthis are next, and no one is going to help them, that there is no need for an attack on Iran, because Iran is not a threat, not doing anything, and likely somone in Iran is helping US/Israel]

So anyone can blah blah blah about just how brave they are and tehir resilence, how Hamas and Hezbollah havnt been defeated because some of them are still alive, how Israel's weakness was exposed and its demise is imminent blah blah blah - like a spiders web or something, etc etc.

Nasrallah, gone. I didnt even mention Ismail Haniyah, killed while he was in Iran! Israel has continued its occupation of Syria, etc etc etc. I could go on, and on, and on

I dont want to keep repeating myself, so lets just wait and see what happens
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You can argue that the strategy of fighting against the US is a bad choice. But this is probably not by Iran's choice, it's just that the US lost face in the hostage crisis during the revolution and failed rescue attempt, so now they hate Iran and want to sabotage it, no matter what they do

However you also have to look at the results. Sure, many Arabs died, but Arabs aren't Iranians. Sending people to die in order to save Arab lives is not popular in Iran at all. Arab loses just don't count that much to the Iranian people. Meanwhile Israel has become a pariah to half the population in the US and many in Europe. This is a huge relief for Iran. With the media covering the genocide in detail and discussing nuclear armament for Europe because of Russia, suddenly far fewer people care about the Iranian nuclear program

They have few cards, but they played them ok. The current threats of war may sound threatening to you in the context of Israeli attacks on their Arab neighbours, but in the context of the long US Iran conflict, this is a far lower level of threat than during the Bush regime. With Iraq and Afghanistan mostly free from Western influence, Saudi normalising relations with Iran and American attention focused on East Asia, I'd say Iran is feeling less worried now than they did in the past when American power relative to Iran was much greater, China wasn't a factor and countries were being invaded every few years
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
This is interesting. Turkey is like literally the Muslim edition of Israel. Their people both act like swindlers, thier military is NATO hardware, and they're both small countries driven by rage from the past. Every Muslim country so far has been too light-handed and/or too weak to properly deal with the existential and fundamental level threat of Israel. I'm sure Turkey would not make that mistake. That would be a great fight!
 
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V

Virtup

Junior Member
Registered Member
As someone who spent most of his life surrounded by muslims and arabs, I can tell with near certainty that you shouldn't expect anything from them for the next two generations AT LEAST. I was hoping oct 7th would stir them a little since it is one of their holy sites that is in danger, but we know how that turned out: only the persians and yemenis tried to do anything about it.

The truth is that arabs in MENA no longer treat their religion as an actual religion (a way of life and a perspective on the world). It's just a bunch of rituals and festivities to most of them now. And without Islam, arabs aren't worth sh*t. They wern't worth sh*t before Islam and won't be for the foreseeable future. Too much laziness, ignorance, trachery and lack of accountability.

So, what's the conclusion to all this rant? I'm pretty sure Palestine and the AL AQSA mosque are a goner. The Israelis will probably have their "prophesized" state and build their 3rd temple on the ruins of islam's 3rd holy site, not because they're competent (they're definetly not), but because those around them are far, far worse.

Heh, had Salaheddine been somehow transported to our current times, he probably wouldn't have bothered with these people and would have gone and started a buisness empire somewhere else, probably China.
 
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Michael90

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obj 705A said:
China has no allies in the middle east. the main challenges that Iran faces are security threats. China is only active in east Asia plus Pakistan & China follows an isolationist / non interventionist foreign policy for the rest of the world the middle east included.
China has trade relations with the rest of the world but trade relations are one thing and actively intervening to protect smaller countries is another.

China is building CVs & all these dozens of DDGs, SSNs not to go fight the US around the world whenever the US wants to do regime change and change the maps outside of east Asia. but to secure east Asia and regain Taiwan and to protect Chinese shipping globably. as long as the US does not target Chinese civilian ships in the middle east then China will not intervene.

Russia on the other hand does have the desire and the political will to intervene in conflicts globaly to try to stop US imperialist policies but in the middle east so far they failed such as what happened in Syria. hopefully once the shooting starts Russia will aid Iran with intelegence / targeting information and by continuously giving them defensive and offensive missiles. though personaly I find that aid highly unlikely to happen because Russia wouldn't want to risk having Russian weapons hitting American bases in the GCC because that would harm Russia's relations with the GCC.
as for China I am confident that in the event of a US war on Iran. China will stay out of it and will not send a single bullet to Iran as military aid let alone send any missiles. instead China is likely to just condemn the US diplomaticaly and call for peace etc..

personaly I always believed Iran and few other middle eastern countries were driving their countries to the abyss. the writing has been on the wall for some time now. the MENA region is firmly under the military influence of the US. Syria for example should have normalized relations with Israel and ditched it's relations with Russia. become a firm ally of Israel and you will be safe.

same thing goes for Iran. they should have normalized relations with Israel. forget all the talk about "resistance" or whatever. they should have done what Turkey did and send the Shahed / Geran drones to aid Ukraine rather than giving it to the Russians not for the sake of Ukraine because Ukraine is finished regardless. but for the sake of enhancing the relations with the US. in addition they could offer the US to have military bases in Iran.

if I were to give an advice to small countries like Iran , Syria, Algeria etc.. small / weak countries should only care about the welfare of their people and should not try to change the world or enact justice or establish a multipolar world or whatever. leave that mission to the bigger countries. and if a nation of 1.4 billion people with the second largest economy is unwilling to / incapable of changing the world order and instead choses to focus on it's own region in east Asia and for the rest of the world choses to just do trade without establishing firm military alliance (which is what is needed for a true multipolar world in the face American DDGs and bombers changing regimes however they like). then why should much smaller countries volunteer to do what a much bigger country doesn't do!

follow the example of Singapore. Singapore realizes that they are a very small country and that the US is still top dog globably so they focus on themselves rather than trying to change the world. that is why they still lean more towards the US. that is why they imposed sanctions on Russia to appease the US.

I believe in the future MENA will go back to being firmly under the control of the US and Latin America will follow suit with regime changes. meanwhile east Asia will become more and more China's region and Russia's influence in Eastern Europe and especially the post Soviet space will expand and Eastern Europe will go back to being under Russian influence gradualy which is historicaly it's natural place.
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I agree completely with you. I actually said the same thing on here several times. China follows a non interventionist policy and they have said that proudly several times. I don't understand why some people cant just accept that and move on. lol China changed completely in 1979 when Mao died and the Maoist faction in China was uprooted and deposed. The china that emerged after that was a non belligerent China and one that adhere to a non interventionist policy and normalised relatuons with the US/West and opened up to trade and relations with every country. Vietnam followed China decades later after realising that it will benefit them more to normalise relations with the West and abandoned that their stupid isolationist "axis of resistance" policy. Lol . As you said , small and medium coubtries should realise their reality and know they cant gain anything by standing up yo the top dog. Just go along with the top dog and benefit for your ow interests like china did . If even big powers like China choosed to be cautious, reserved and focus on their internal interests, i dont understand why far weaker countries believe they can challenge the top dogs and win. Lol
Anyway, even with China's growth , size and power as a great power today, China still lies low and doesnt involve herself on other countries affairs or military conflicts outside her borders. China is focused on herself and improving her people's living standards only and rightly so. As long as the US/West doesnt threaten Chinas sovereignty (Taiwan/SCS) China wouldnt get herself in any country or region or conflict anywhere. Xi Jinping himself openly said China has no intention of surpassing or displacing the US in the world.
This says it all.

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I believe the US should make a deal with China and agree to respect China's sovereignty, the US can have the world as they do already all they wabt China wouldnt and doesnt care much. Apart from some token speech here and there. So it will be a WIN-WIN for both great powers.
 
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