Military/technological capabilities, intelligence and Industry is what matters in today's warfare not political or religious rhetoric.
If that was the case then Israel would have won in Lebanon in 2006 and Gaza would have been under control by end of 2023. Similarly Ukraine would have collapsed in the first days of Russian invasion.
War never changes: it is won by the side which is better prepared.
Preparation for war requires three things:
awareness of possibilities,
competence in planning and
discipline in maintaining secrecy.
Humility goes a long way in helping the three but is not a substitute for either.
Hubris on the other hand will
always overturn all three and ruin the most perfect plan.
Hezbollah has failed over the last year in much the same manner that Russia has since 2022 (or actually: since 2014). Both were characterised by utter lack of awareness, lack of competence in planning and no discipline of secrecy (Russia was considered to maintain its "maskirovka" before 24/2/22 when the war was still thought to be conducted competently). Most importantly both were characterised by
hubris of leadership.
Hezbollah showed hubris by believing that their offensive potential can't be degraded, that their fighting force is a given - not influenced by human factors - and that their enemy is demoralised and incapable of conducting effective warfare. Sun Tzu rolls in his grave.
On the other hand Israel has imagined it very well, planned it extremely competently and executed it with restraint and discipline. Most importantly there was not a shade of hubris. Political rhetoric aside the military side of the operation was excessively cautious and showed tremendous restraint.
Israel has waited a year taking multiple hits and bearing the heavy toll of evacuation until it was absolutely certain that it had the enemy structure and operating procedures mapped and targeted. For a year Israel has feigned relative weakness and inability to respond with sufficient force to stop constant attacks. Even the attack from Iran was used to help build that image of vulnerability. It was a carefully staged show to convince the target that it can put its head out of the hole. And it worked.
It made Hezbollah complacent and too absorbed by their own grandiose rhetoric. A year of constant fighting without commensurate threat causes inevitable relaxation in discipline among fighters. During the first three-four months Hezbollah could maintain discipline. After six to nine it simply becomes too much of a burden to constantly enforce it if there is no will among the fighters to keep it up. And when that happens patterns of behaviour emerge and planning becomes much easier.
Humans are always the weakest link in any warfighting system. Therefore it is always best to wait for that weakest link to show fracture and strike then, and only then.
When the order came Israel first created chaos in the command structure by eliminating a significant portion of Hezbollah's mid-level leadership and attacked with pin-point precision destroying storage depots, launcher sites and personnel infrastructure. When Hezbollah attempted to re-organise following the pager attack they identified top leadership and eliminated it. Now Hezbollah is in complete disarray because as in any political institution - and remember that Hezbollah is a political party/organisation first, and a fighting formation second - it is in a state of constant infighting for power and influence. With its leader having been in charge for over three decades there is no flexible structure in place, capable of filling the void. If Israel's intention is to destroy Hezbollah fighting force now is the best opportunity so I expect the ground invasion to begin shortly. Almost anniversary of 7/10 is a good time.
Now, a few more important notes:
Hezbollah has numerous enemies inside Lebanon and no matter the rhetoric of Lebanese authorities there will be plentiful collaborators hoping to get rid of competition. For example the Shia Amal movement is not an ally of Hezbollah, but its
primary rival.
I also think that this image is misunderstood.
While Netanyahu openly attempts to influence US elections I doubt he would do
this without the support of the main decision-making bodies in the US. I think everyone who reads this as a "slap in the face" of Biden are reading it wrong. It's a warning sign to Iran "we weren't acting alone" and implies the actual US deep state - intelligence, military, main decision-making committees, core special interest - are in on the plan. Elections in America are a sham. The decisions that matter are made elsewhere.
And remember that while everyone focuses on Israel it's not just Israel doing the preparation. While governments call for ceasefire the intelligence and planning bodies are aiding Israel as much as they can. US alone can decide the outcome with its recon potential.
I would also not ignore the possibility that Russia aided Israel in this operation because the benefits for Russia are just as tremendous - removing Hezbollah weakens Iranian influence in Syria and indicates the importance of keeping Russia on your side.
Understand that no state actor except Iran wants Hezbollah to continue to play a role in the region. That includes Russia which has a history of bombing Hezbollah's positions in Syria "by accident". If you support Israeli policies you want Hezbollah gone because they are obstacle to Israeli policies. If you oppose Israeli policies you want Hezbollah gone because they're the excuse that justifies Israel's policies. It's the same as Hamas - Israeli position vs Palestinian statehood is weaker when Fatah is the only faction. Hamas was allowed to grow precisely to justify continuing repression and intervention.
When Netanyahu came to the US and presented the plan to eliminate Hezbollah he most likely got the go-ahead as well as material aid - the recent $9bn - to go through with his plan. And that means that it was a good plan. US can and does withhold aid to Israel when it sees the reason for it. They didn't this time.
Rhetoric on both sides didn't change because there was no reason for it to change. Nobody in the west supports Hezbollah and eliminating Hezbollah makes criticising Israel easier, not harder. It's a win-win situation provided that Israel doesn't bungle the job. And so far they didn't.
If Israeli operation continues to be a success then there is no downside to allowing it to continue. Israel does the dirty work of occupying south Lebanon and the west maintains clean hands of only wanting peace.Hezbollah will be eliminated and the main threat that Iran holds over the region is drastically reduced. Yes Iran still has its own offensive potential but that is not as conveniently used as Hezbollah. Iran is put in a hard place of having lost an important asset and having its negotiating position severely weakened. Who benefits? Everyone who isn't the Iranian regime. That includes
everyone including disgruntled Iranians who happen to work within the structures of the state or military.
Iran is not a monolith. It is a state ruled by an authoritarian oppressive regime that uses wartime politics to maintain power in the same way that Netanyahu does. And just like Netanyahu it has plenty of internal opposition and likely collaborators. For example the Pasdaran (guard) exist because even now the regime can't fully trust the Artesh (army).
That's even more true of Lebanon which unlike Iran has no national identity to hide behind. Hezbollah is just a
minority political faction and supported from abroad.
Iranian regime has also recently made a tremendous error of buying into hubris - they agreed to aid Russia in the war which cost it the good will of both the EU and US Democrats. What did they get in exchange? Can anyone tell
for sure? They would be much better off steering clear of involvement with Russia but hubris wouldn't let them. They also wanted to not help too much which was hubris that was noticed in Moscow.
And now they lost Hezbollah and will have their position in Syria weakened substantially. Syria most likely will return fully under Russian umbrella and Iran will have to scramble to preserve whatever it can on the ground. This way it can't afford to waste resources in trading blows with Israel which is how Israel and its western allies like it. Instead of repeat of 13/4/2024 we'll have return to groundwork which means plenty of targets for Israeli Air Force for which there will be plenty of ordnance funded by the US.
Rhetoric is deception. Only action implies intention. If you want to understand politics and war you need to pay attention to the thing that matters. Not the one that doesn't.
And now for cleaning up of Hezbollah's turf, and perhaps just that, sothat Hezbollah has somewhere to run and try and rebuild over the next decade or so. Why would Netanyahu kill his golden goose when it was sufficient to pluck its golden feathers? Keep laying those golden eggs!
A random tidbit as a parting note:
Nasrallah means "victory of god" in Arabic but in Polish "
nasra" translates as "will shit on" and it being used in the same word as "allah" is inevitably obscene. Therefore any talk of Hezbollah has never been not funny in any context. So I will mourn the loss of a joke. If at least there was some Ruhollah alive... "Ruh" in Polish is pronounced like the stem of a word meaning "to f...".
Ruhollah.
Nasrallah. Middle eastern politics is never not funny when discussed in Polish.
