Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
Israel’s economy is in really bad shape. And this is before the strikes from the axis of resistance. Even if a ceasefire is agreed the damage is done. There are many who left and will never return.

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Things can always get worse....a lot worse.
A full war between Israel and Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies would mean that the US will have to drag their feet to the Middle East to avoid the collapse of Israel.
 

FriedButter

Major
Registered Member
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Defense secretary orders USS Georgia submarine to Middle East, accelerates arrival of strike group ahead of anticipated Iran attack​

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered a guided-missile submarine to the Middle East and accelerated the arrival of a carrier strike group to the region ahead of an anticipated Iranian attack against Israel, the Pentagon said in a statement Sunday evening.

The USS Georgia, a nuclear-powered submarine armed with cruise missiles, was operating in the Mediterranean Sea in recent days, according to the Navy, having just completed training near Italy.

Austin ordered the submarine into the waters of the Middle East, the Pentagon said. The movement of US missile submarines is rarely revealed publicly, and the nuclear-powered vessels operate in near-complete secrecy.

The announcement of a submarine’s movement is a clear message of deterrence to Iran and its proxies, who the US and Israel believe are preparing for a potential large-scale attack on Israel.
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In reversal, Israel said to now believe Iran plans to attack in next few days​

Several reports Sunday evening indicated that Israel was expecting a major Iranian attack to be launched within days, though the military sought to downplay this by stressing that instructions to civilians were unchanged.

The reports marked a reversal of the previous prevailing assumption, which had been that the Islamic Republic — under heavy international pressure — had given up its initial intention to launch an imminent large-scale attack in response to the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, which Israel hasn’t confirmed nor denied carrying out.

Instead, Iran had been expected to leave the response to Lebanon’s Hezbollah terror group, whose top military commander Fuad Shukr was killed by Israel in an airstrike in Beirut several hours before Haniyeh’s assassination. Israel blamed Shukr for being behind many attacks on civilians, including a rocket strike last month that killed 12 children in a soccer field in Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights.

But the Axios news site, citing two unnamed sources familiar with the details, reported Sunday that Israel’s current assessment was that Iran would launch a direct attack on the country within days, possibly before renewed ceasefire-hostage deal talks are held on Thursday.

The report said that the issue was divisive within Iran. President Masoud Pezeshkian wants to avoid a harsh response, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps wants to launch a larger attack than it did on April 13-14, when hundreds of drones and missile were launched in Iran’s first-ever direct attack on Israel. Almost all projectiles and UAVs were intercepted during that attack.

One of the sources cited in the report said the situation was “still fluid” due to the disagreements.

The report said Defense Minister Yoav Gallant had spoken Sunday with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and told him Iran’s military preparations suggested Iran was getting ready for a large-scale attack on Israel.

The Pentagon later confirmed the existence of the call, adding that Austin had ordered the deployment of the USS Georgia guided missile submarine to the Middle East amid the escalating tensions. Announcing the movements of a submarine is rare for the US.

In a statement, the Pentagon added that Austin had also ordered the Abraham Lincoln strike group to accelerate its deployment to the region.

Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary, said in a statement that Austin spoke with Gallant and reiterated America’s commitment “to take every possible step to defend Israel and noted the strengthening of US military force posture and capabilities throughout the Middle East in light of escalating regional tensions.”

The Lincoln, which has been in the Asia Pacific, had already been ordered to the region to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier strike group, which is scheduled to begin heading back to the US. Last week, Austin said the Lincoln would arrive in the Central Command area by the end of the month.

It wasn’t clear Sunday what his latest order means, or how much more quickly the Lincoln will steam to the Middle East. The carrier has F-35 fighter jets aboard, along with the F/A-18 fighter aircraft that are also on carriers.

Ryder also did not say how quickly the USS Georgia guided missile submarine would get to the region.

Meanwhile, the Kan public broadcaster and Channel 13 news also reported Sunday evening that Israel’s updated assessment was that Tehran intends to launch a major attack this week.

Channel 13 reported, without citing sources, that there could be a combined attack by both Iran and Hezbollah, whether simultaneously or successively. The network said one factor that had delayed the promised response to the assassinations of the terror chiefs was French pressure on Iran and Hezbollah not to launch a major attack during the Paris Olympics, which wrapped up on Sunday.
The report said Defense Minister Yoav Gallant had spoken Sunday with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and told him Iran’s military preparations suggested Iran was getting ready for a large-scale attack on Israel.
Meanwhile, the Kan public broadcaster and Channel 13 news also reported Sunday evening that Israel’s updated assessment was that Tehran intends to launch a major attack this week.

Guess we will find out soon. The US wouldn’t be announcing the deployment of a submarine if Iran really did back down a couple days ago.

Channel 13 reported, without citing sources, that there could be a combined attack by both Iran and Hezbollah, whether simultaneously or successively. The network said one factor that had delayed the promised response to the assassinations of the terror chiefs was French pressure on Iran and Hezbollah not to launch a major attack during the Paris Olympics, which wrapped up on Sunday.

I don’t see why the Iranians or Hezbollah would care if the attacks happened during the Olympics. Far more likely it was related to the meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation a few days ago. Where Iran met with the other Islamic states to publish a statement that sides with Iran on the matter.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
All that may be true regarding damage to Israeli economy.

But it also says there is almost total destruction of Palestinian infrastructure. Ground water have been deliberately polluted/flooded with sea water. Polio is also on the rise in Gaza - who knows if its deliberately released - IDF started to distribute vaccine to its own troops.

Just in terms of infrastructure it may take 15+ years to rebuild. How long would it take Israeli economy to recovery after a ceasefire.... 1 year, 2 years, maybe 3-5 years vs. 15-20 years for Palestine.

It is true, however Palestine has no real importance to the world economy and technology and has been struggling for decades. While Israel is/was world class technology powerhouse and world leading in many areas (e.g water conservation, agriculture, etc). After this war, not many countries would want to cooperate with Israel for a very long time. I doubt China would do that for long time ... forget about Russia and Arab and other Islamic countries (e.g Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, etc)
 

enroger

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't know why people keep writing about the end of Israel, etc.

Keeping it objective, Israel has a TFR of 3.0, and it is a developed country where the TFR is not in danger of suddenly collapsing. It's not going any where. A country with positive demographics will only improve its position in the future, presuming it is able to defend itself.

This isn't Ukraine we're talking about.

High population growth rate is exactly why Israel is in current predicament, they don't have enough land to fit their population and have to resort to territory expansion
 

_killuminati_

Senior Member
Registered Member
Just in terms of infrastructure it may take 15+ years to rebuild. How long would it take Israeli economy to recovery after a ceasefire.... 1 year, 2 years, maybe 3-5 years vs. 15-20 years for Palestine.
You really think the Apartheid plans on leaving Gaza alone for 15-20 years? Gaza is in a perpetual rebuilding mode due to constant Israeli-settler war crimes. This time, the Apartheid is interested in a total ethnic cleansing, i.e. Gaza annexed into the apartheid.

It has been forecasted by many Israeli economist it will take a decade for the economy to recover. Israel will never go back to the pre October 7th status quo. The Gaza war has destroyed Israel’s standing in the world. Also Israel hasn’t maintained military deterrence which will make it very difficult for people to stay. You already see many Israeli elites pulling money away from Israel. Also the fact they haven’t done anything against Hezbollah makes maintaining the north. 40% of the populace fled the north to the central and south. The remaining 60% are only staying because they expect the government to do something about it. If nothing is done many have said they will leave. If the north becomes empty and desolate it’s going to further impact the economy. In short the Israeli economy is on its way to further decline.
Thailand has become the new exodus destination for the fleeing war criminals.
 

enroger

Junior Member
Registered Member
All that may be true regarding damage to Israeli economy.

But it also says there is almost total destruction of Palestinian infrastructure. Ground water have been deliberately polluted/flooded with sea water. Polio is also on the rise in Gaza - who knows if its deliberately released - IDF started to distribute vaccine to its own troops.

Just in terms of infrastructure it may take 15+ years to rebuild. How long would it take Israeli economy to recovery after a ceasefire.... 1 year, 2 years, maybe 3-5 years vs. 15-20 years for Palestine.

Israel will never recover to pre Oct-7 level, and things can still go worst for them, much much worst if their infrastructure gets targeted by Hezbollah and Iran. No sane investor will ever feel safe to invest in Israel.

Sure Palestinian infrastructure is destroyed if it makes you feel better. But the people are still there, population down a few %s from IDF's best effort but they're still there and has plenty of hate and funded and armed by external allies to keep the fight going on for decades. Have fun with that
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Israel will never accept all the Arabs in Palestine as regular citizens because then the Arabs would have a voting majority. That is why they tolerated these Arab 'reservations'. But of course their goal is to drive the Arabs out of there and reduce their numbers.
 

_killuminati_

Senior Member
Registered Member
Israel will never accept all the Arabs in Palestine as regular citizens because then the Arabs would have a voting majority. That is why they tolerated these Arab 'reservations'. But of course their goal is to drive the Arabs out of there and reduce their numbers.
Low Jewish birthrates and very high Israeli-Arab rates adds to the problem. Despite all the sterilization programs, the Arab birthrate continued to dominate. But recently, the birthrate among those psycho Orthodox nutters began to skyrocket as well, with estimates showing they will be a majority (among Jews) in less then a couple decades.. which means an increase in the national Apartheid psychopathy.
 

Proton

Junior Member
Registered Member
you guys talk about Israel economy collapsing and it's like you forgot Uncle Sam. daddy US will simply print a few hundreds of billions of dollars to rescue Israel.
Money should never be a problem for Israel, it will always have millions of wealthy and appropriately bloodthirsty backers abroad.

If there is ever a logistical breakdown, or major attacks on energy infrastructure, things can get dicey though.
Don't see the (presumed) coming Iranian attack doing any major damage here, it will likely focus purely military targets.

A full scale war against Hezbollah could perhaps get serious consequences? If they have potent enough drones and missiles to enforce a blockade on Israel in the Mediterranean - being constrained to land corridors would cripple Israel significantly.
 
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