Scoop: Blinken told G7 Iran and Hezbollah could attack Israel in next 24 hours
Secretary of State Tony Blinken told his counterparts from the G7 countries on Sunday that an attack by Iran and Hezbollah against Israel could start as early as Monday, three sources briefed on the call tell Axios.
Why it matters: Blinken convened the conference call to coordinate with close U.S. allies and try to generate last-minute diplomatic pressure on Iran and Hezbollah to minimize their retaliation as much as possible. He stressed that limiting the impact of their strikes is the best chance to prevent all-out war.
Driving the news: Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah have vowed to respond to the assassinations by Israel of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut.
Behind the scenes: The sources said Blinken stressed that the U.S. believes Iran and Hezbollah will both retaliate.
- But unlike the Iranian attack against Israel on April 13 — in which Iran launched nearly 350 attack drones and missiles toward Israel, and Israel, the U.S. and their allies worked together to intercept most of them — Blinken said it's unclear what form the retaliation will take.
- Blinken said the U.S. doesn't know the exact timing of the attacks but stressed it could start as early as the next 24-48 hours — meaning as early as Monday, the sources said.
- The secretary of state told his counterparts the U.S. is making efforts to break the escalatory cycle by trying to limit the attacks by Iran and Hezbollah as much as possible and then restrain the Israeli response.
- Blinken asked the other foreign ministers to apply diplomatic pressure on Iran, Hezbollah and Israel to maintain maximum restraint.
Zoom in: Blinken told the G7 foreign ministers that the boosting of U.S. forces in the region was for defensive purposes only, the sources said.
- One source who was on the call said Blinken sounded frustrated when he briefed the ministers on recent talks with Israel over a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal.
- Blinken said the administration felt it was "close to a breakthrough" before the assassination in Tehran. Now a deal is needed more than ever, Blinken added.
- State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller declined to comment.
What they're saying: "We express our deep concern over the heightened level of tension in the Middle East which threatens to ignite a broader conflict in the region," the G7 ministers said in a statement.
- "We urge all involved parties to refrain from perpetuating the current destructive cycle of retaliatory violence, to lower tensions and engage constructively towards de-escalation. No country or nation stands to gain from further escalation in the Middle East."
State of play: The commander of U.S. Central Command, Gen. Michael Kurilla, is expected to arrive in Israel on Monday to finalize preparations with the Israel Defense Forces ahead of the possible attack by Iran and Hezbollah, Israeli officials told me.
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a meeting on Sunday night with Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant and the heads of the military and the intelligence services.
- "Iran and its minions are looking to surround us in a stranglehold of terrorism. We are determined to stand against them on every front and in every arena — near and far. Whoever seeks to harm us will pay a very heavy price," Netanyahu said ahead of the meeting.
- Gallant also spoke Sunday with his U.S. counterpart Lloyd Austin
The big picture: Other countries in the region are also bracing for dramatic escalation, and scrambling to try to prevent it.
- Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi visited Tehran on Sunday in the first such visit in almost a decade. Jordan is concerned an Iranian missile and drone attack will pass through its airspace.
- During the April 13 attack, Jordan intercepted Iranian drones that were making their way towards Israel and allowed U.S. and Israeli fighter jets to use its airspace to intercept Iranian drones and cruise missiles.
- Safadi met with acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri and passed along a message from King Abdullah II to the Iranian president, according to a Jordanian Foreign Ministry statement.
- "I didn't come here to convey a message from Israel or to receive a message for Israel. I came here to express concern about regional escalation," Safadi said after his meeting in Tehran.
