Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

aahyan

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IDF Head of Military Intelligence: Israel’s qualitative military superiority and other traditional assets are being eroded

In operational terms, the war in Gaza is a wake-up call regarding the challenges of multi-front war, including simultaneous attacks on several fronts, disrupting trade and supply routes.

With Iran’s help, Israel’s enemies are increasing their ability to wage long wars of attrition. In the shadow of the war in Gaza, there has also been a normalization of firing missiles and drones into Israeli territory by Iran directly and by its various proxies across the region.

The proliferation of aerial threats, and the heightened ground threats on the borders, offset Israel’s qualitative and quantitative advantages. It is difficult for Israel to use crushing force to secure quick and decisive victory, highlighting gaps in its military structure and weaponry.

These external challenges for Israel are exacerbated by its internal divisions. The state faces an ongoing political crisis, paralysis of governance, and the weakening of the state with respect to legislation, policy planning and implementation, and law. These trends project weakness and undermine deterrence to our enemies. The damage to Israeli democracy also harms relations with Western allies. Above all, infighting undermines national resilience.

Israel faces an unequal sharing of the national burden, socioeconomic gaps, the deterioration of education in science and innovation, and the lack of haredi (ultra-Orthodox) integration into the labor market. These threaten to collapse Israel’s economy in the coming decades and to severely damage the remnants of the “people’s army”, welfare policy, and governance. Economic decline means less resources for defense and reduced soft power and international status.

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aahyan

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Rumors - There is a coup attempt within the Israeli army. Far right religious camp is trying to overthrow IDF top brass. Far right religious camp wants to continue the war on Gaza and ethnically cleanse Gaza. IDF top brass believes that's manical and dangerous.

If a ceasefire isn't reached this summer. Then far right religious camp of Israel has taken a hold of all of Israel and is leading them into the unknown.
 

aahyan

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it appears the biggest issue is the transition from phase 1 to phase 2 to reach a permanent ceasefire. Hamas wants US to commit to reaching phase 2. but US and Israel will not agree to this, because they want to keep their options open to continue the war if they cannot secure their maximalist demands from Hamas during the phase 2 negotiations. Hamas knows this and wants to make the US give guarantees of reaching phase 2. otherwise Hamas will free a lot of Israeli prisoners and Israel will resume the war.

Israel officially rejected Hamas' latest proposal but apparently gave a written guarantee that the phase 2 negotiations will continue without a time limit. this proposal is unlikely to be satisfactory to Hamas, which wants Israel to commit to a ceasefire and close the possibility of continuing the war after phase 1.
 

aahyan

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Translation - Media reports from Israeli security sources: The official in charge of the army hostage file said that he would resign if Netanyahu sabotaged the current efforts.

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JJD1803

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Rumors - There is a coup attempt within the Israeli army. Far right religious camp is trying to overthrow IDF top brass. Far right religious camp wants to continue the war on Gaza and ethnically cleanse Gaza. IDF top brass believes that's manical and dangerous.

If a ceasefire isn't reached this summer. Then far right religious camp of Israel has taken a hold of all of Israel and is leading them into the unknown.
This is why the IDF doesn’t want to overthrow Netanyahu with a coup. It will guarantee a civil war in Israel. The far right orthodox fascist have armed militias in the West Bank and they have forces in the military that supports them. If the far right fascist takeover the top army brass they are going to drive Israel into suicidal military action into south Lebanon. Israel is not going to be able to survive the n the coming years. October 7th was the beginning of the end.
 
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