Have they really advanced that much? Just a few days ago, IDF was still camping in the perimeter outside Gaza city, on the beaches and in the farmland for more than two months.
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)
- Thread starter phrozenflame
- Start date
To be honest I'm not sure.HAMAS doesn't have enough network to send video and IDF doesn't want to show what's really going on in Gaza. Also I don't think reaching an area is the same as controlling it. If we look back at the first week of IDF operations that HAMAS could not or did not want to stop the IDF armored columns from driving along the highways/roads. But IDF will now face the problem of Russia rushing Kiev in the first phase which is the difficulty of clearing the houses on both sides of the road.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
The IDF has been fighting like amateurs this entire war so far, infantry huddling in IFVs rather than dismounting to screen their armour, hence all the footage of Hamas RPG teams being able to line up easy shots and even managing to run up and attach munitions directly to Israeli armour.
Even when they do dismount, Israeli infantry clump together behind cover and suffer mass casualty events whenever Hamas manages to get into a flanking position.
Strategically it’s even worse, with Israel seeming to be politically focused on taking ground asap and failing to secure their holdings in any meaningful way, leading to their support elements getting frequently ambushed and even their frontline assaulters getting caught out when assaulted from what should be secured areas. It’s so bad the Israelis actually had to do an air drop to resupply their troops 10 miles from Israeli soil.
It almost look like the IDF has made a list of all the blunders the Russians did when they marched on Kyiv and made that a to-do-list instead of a list of things to avoid doing.
If Hamas had modern heavy weapons, or indeed even outdated soviet heavy weapons and AD, the IDF would have suffered straight up large scale conventional military defeat.
In light of this, Israeli looking to open up a second northern front against Hezbollah would seem like madness at first glance, but there is some reason to this madness if you think about it.
In my view, Israel’s leaders have now finally realised just how unprepared their troops are for the fight they are now committed to, there isn’t time to properly retrain and re-equip their entire ground force, so they are looking to wag American ground troops into the fight to cover for their own shortcomings. American military leaders are resisting, but it seems Israel is using their leverage on American political leaders to overrule them.
The Israelis don’t need any additional air or even naval power, what they need are US marines screening their armour and kicking down doors for them in Gaza. On just that basis, there is a good chance the US military and few strategic thinking political holdouts will cave in to the Israeli political pressure to get involved, since just loosing some marines won’t materially impact on their grand plan of fighting China in the pacific
That is why Yemen is attacking shipping, as a direct warning to the US that things will not stay nicely contained for them should they get involved.
The biggest wild card is Iran. They have been unusually mute throughout this whole war so far, and I cannot make up my mind on whether that is a sign of weakness or maturity on their part.
Even when they do dismount, Israeli infantry clump together behind cover and suffer mass casualty events whenever Hamas manages to get into a flanking position.
Strategically it’s even worse, with Israel seeming to be politically focused on taking ground asap and failing to secure their holdings in any meaningful way, leading to their support elements getting frequently ambushed and even their frontline assaulters getting caught out when assaulted from what should be secured areas. It’s so bad the Israelis actually had to do an air drop to resupply their troops 10 miles from Israeli soil.
It almost look like the IDF has made a list of all the blunders the Russians did when they marched on Kyiv and made that a to-do-list instead of a list of things to avoid doing.
If Hamas had modern heavy weapons, or indeed even outdated soviet heavy weapons and AD, the IDF would have suffered straight up large scale conventional military defeat.
In light of this, Israeli looking to open up a second northern front against Hezbollah would seem like madness at first glance, but there is some reason to this madness if you think about it.
In my view, Israel’s leaders have now finally realised just how unprepared their troops are for the fight they are now committed to, there isn’t time to properly retrain and re-equip their entire ground force, so they are looking to wag American ground troops into the fight to cover for their own shortcomings. American military leaders are resisting, but it seems Israel is using their leverage on American political leaders to overrule them.
The Israelis don’t need any additional air or even naval power, what they need are US marines screening their armour and kicking down doors for them in Gaza. On just that basis, there is a good chance the US military and few strategic thinking political holdouts will cave in to the Israeli political pressure to get involved, since just loosing some marines won’t materially impact on their grand plan of fighting China in the pacific
That is why Yemen is attacking shipping, as a direct warning to the US that things will not stay nicely contained for them should they get involved.
The biggest wild card is Iran. They have been unusually mute throughout this whole war so far, and I cannot make up my mind on whether that is a sign of weakness or maturity on their part.
I think the more surprising thing was the Houthis successful strike via Ballistic missile on a cargo ship. Granted it was stationary and GPS rather than actively guided, it points to the fact that Iranian GPS tech is actually quite good, a guided version should not be underestimated.
I wish we had some sort of post strike picture to see the damage inflicted.
I wish we had some sort of post strike picture to see the damage inflicted.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Or the Russians repaying Iran for their help by allowing the export of Iskander or even Iskander-M tech or missiles outright.
A 7-30m CEP is more than good enough to hit a stationary ship. But trying that against a moving ship, especially an actively manoeuvring warship, is an entirely different ball game. Let’s not forget that the tech is so hard that for years the entire western MIC and intel community were convinced Chinese AShBMs either couldn’t work or were just a massive psyops programme, despite all the evidence to the contrary. It wasn’t until China finally demonstrated a live hit out at sea that the approved western narrative changed from it being impossible to it being no big deal and that anyone can do it and that American BMD got that covered anyways.
I think the more simple reason is that Hezbollah is simply doing too much shit, it's not a situation that can continue, even if Israel is unprepared.
By now, there's estimates of at least a few hundreds dead and several dozen tanks destroyed at the hands of Hezbollah. If Israel doesn't respond, their sovereignty will be called into question. I mean, without naming names, just imagine if a certain group inside China started shooting at the PLA and destroyed dozens of tanks, and Beijing just chooses to do nothing.
Rather than similar to the Ukraine war (which would be more similar to a hypothetical US-Iran war), the more accurate comparison would be the Chechnya war, since the Palestinians, like the Chechens, don't have any remotely good heavy weapons.
Similar to that conflict, the goal of the Palestinians is to tire out Israel forces and bring international sympathy to help them. And while Russia is/was very difficult to exhaust due to its unique circumstances, it's imho much more possible to exhaust Israel, in terms of ammo, recruits and economy.
Iran is waiting on the sidelines for now. You know how when Great White sharks attack seals? They take a huge bite out of the hind quarter and wait for the thing to bleed to death first before making another bite because a thrashing seal may end up hurting the shark. It is kinda like that.
there is no such thing as a stationary ship in the open sea, unless it's doing active station keeping (which is quite a special technical adaptation, which they don't have). Winds¤ts are at play, especially near the strait. And Bab-el-Mendeb isn't just any strait, this one is a very treacherous place. Strait doesn't get named Gate of tears for nothing.
As far as I understand, they used optically-guided SRBM, which can hit moving targets anyway. The problem, as is always with ASBMs, is that either you have really fresh&precise targeting data, or it's a miss.
What Russia can do is provide space
Not on civilian vessels and not on Israeli ships, of course.
...nor it's an ASBM anyway.
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