ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

how you doing Equation?

in September of last year Government encircled ISIL in
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area, and what happened then was ISIL ended up in the area (in black below) previously taken by Insurgents:
d9898b86948d8ee045ceaf87a417fdb5.jpg

until recently, that development had been convenient to the Government;
now ISIL took it into the recently gained Government protrusion extended toward
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and it's unclear what's going to happen next
 
and in the meantime Tillerson signals deeper US military commitment in Syria
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Secretary of State Rex Tillerson signaled deeper U.S. commitment to Syria on Wednesday, saying America would maintain its military presence there to prevent an Islamic State resurgence. He said the U.S. also would push for broader political changes in the Middle East country.

Speaking at Stanford University after being introduced by former top diplomat Condoleezza Rice, Tillerson said the Trump administration was determined not to repeat President Barack Obama’s “mistake” when he withdrew U.S. troops from Iraq in 2011. Republicans for years have argued the withdrawal created the opening for IS’ rapid expansion.

Instead, Tillerson stressed that U.S. forces would remain in Syria for the foreseeable future as President Donald Trump and his aides implement a new strategy to stabilize Syria, where a civil war has killed as many as a half-million people and created millions of refugees since 2011. There are currently some 2,000 U.S. troops in Syria, mainly training local forces to root out remaining extremist strongholds.

“Let us be clear, the United States will maintain a military presence in Syria focused on ensuring ISIS cannot re-emerge,” Tillerson said. Recounting what he said went wrong in Iraq, Tillerson said: “We cannot allow history to repeat itself in Syria. ISIS presently has one foot in the grave and by maintaining an American military presence in Syria until the full and complete defeat of ISIS is achieved, it will soon have two.”

Beyond counterterrorism, though, Tillerson outlined a much broader mission for U.S. forces in Syria than when Trump first entered office with an almost singular focus on defeating terrorists. Alongside defeating IS and al-Qaida, Tillerson cited several longshot propositions as American goals: Securing a successful U.N. peace process, getting Syrian President Bashar Assad to leave power, ridding Syria of Iran’s influence and eradicating all weapons of mass destruction in the country.

Backed by Russia and Iran, Assad has reasserted control over much of Syria. And Republicans and Democrats in the U.S. have grown worried that both of Assad’s allies are now entrenched in the country, with Iran in particular posing an immediate threat to neighboring Israel. Military leaders, meanwhile, worry that Assad’s inability to quell local unrest will mean that IS or another such formation is likely to reappear in the future.

Tillerson illustrated how the U.S. would continue trying to isolate Assad’s government even as the U.S. objective is “stabilization.” Washington won’t allow international reconstruction aid to flow to any part of Syria under Assad’s control, he said. It will discourage countries from trading with his government.

“Instead, we will encourage international assistance to rebuild areas the global coalition and its local partners have liberated,” Tillerson said, suggesting such an approach might pressure Assad to resign. “Once Assad is gone from power, the United States will gladly encourage the normalization of economic relationships between Syria and other nations.”

More immediate, Tillerson called for Russia to continue working with the U.S. on a “de-escalation” area in southwest Syria and stick to commitments to a U.N.-led peace process. The U.N. mediation has languished for years without any progress and fighting between Assad’s military and rebel groups persists.

In Syria, the United States also is contending with disagreements with close partner Turkey. The NATO ally is fiercely opposed to an expanded training program for Kurdish and Arab border guards in Syria. It sees the Kurdish forces working with the United States as an extension of the Kurdish insurgency in Turkey.
 
now
Turkey Seeks Russian, Iranian Consent for Syria Airstrikes
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  • Ankara says distrust of U.S. continues over unkept promises
  • Turkey army, intelligence chief in Russia for Syria talks
Turkey drew closer to its threatened offensive against Kurdish separatist fighters in northwest Syria, sending top security chiefs to Russia to seek permission to use Syrian airspace for strikes.

Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu dismissed U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s attempts to allay Turkey’s fears about a border security force incorporating thousands of Kurdish fighters that the American-led coalition against Islamic State has said will be formed. The concept of such a force has
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, which says the Kurdish fighters have designs on Turkish territory.

Turkey’s top general, Hulusi Akar, and intelligence agency chief Hakan Fidan flew to Moscow on Thursday to discuss regional security issues and developments and Syria with General Valery Gerasimov, head of Russia’s General Staff, the Turkish military said on its website. Turkey is holding talks with Russia and Iran -- whose militaries are supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in that country’s civil war -- about using Syrian airspace for the operation in the city of Afrin, Cavusoglu told CNN-Turk television in an interview on Thursday.

“We are under attack from Afrin every day, we have to make an intervention,” Cavusoglu told CNN-Turk. “The U.S. must stop cooperating with this terrorist organization,” he said of the Kurdish fighters. “We have to establish coordination for intervention from the air” so that military observers in the area are not harmed, he added, referring to those countries’ military advisers in Syria.

Syria’s Foreign Minister Fayssal Mekdad warned it would retaliate if Afrin is attacked, state-run Sana news agency reported.

Strained Ties
The growing prospect of a Turkish military confrontation with U.S.-backed troops has strained already troubled relations between the NATO allies. The Kurds were Washington’s most trusted force in the U.S.-led campaign to drive Islamic State extremists from Syria, but the Turkish government says they work hand-in-hand with PKK militants who have been battling for autonomy in Turkey’s southeast since the 1980s.

The PKK is classified as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and European Union as well as Turkey.

“The U.S. must stop cooperating with this terrorist group,” Cavusoglu said.

Tillerson was
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Wednesday as denying that a border security force will be established, saying the issue has been “misportrayed.” Earlier this week, the U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State confirmed that such a unit was to be built.

Cavusoglu said Turkey wasn’t satisfied with the U.S. explanations, while adding that it has no interest in colliding with the U.S. over the operation. The offensive in Afrin, in Syria’s northwest, would not directly entangle U.S. troops, which are embedded with Kurdish fighters in the country’s northeast.

Shelling Positions
Turkish army units shelled Kurdish positions around Afrin on Thursday while convoys of tanks, armored personnel carriers and busloads of troops arrived at the border overnight, according to footage from CNN-Turk television.

The lira was trading 0.7 percent higher at 3.7929 per dollar at 2:22 p.m. in Istanbul. The currency had weakened earlier this week over the likelihood of a campaign in Syria and a deteriorating current account.

In a statement late Wednesday, the National Security Council in Ankara said that Turkey “will not allow the formation of a terror army at its Syria border and will take every measure to prevent it.”
 
Yesterday at 8:44 PM
...
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(where Turkish intervention appears to be imminent)
and Turkish military operation in Syria's Afrin has begun: Erdogan

Updated an hour ago
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Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday a military operation in Syria’s Kurdish-controlled Afrin region had begun after cross-border shelling by the Turkish army.

Turkey’s army said on Saturday it hit shelters and hideouts used by militants from three groups - the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), PYD and YPG, after militants fired on Turkish positions inside Turkey.

“We will destroy the terror corridor gradually as we did in Jarabulus and El-bab operations, starting from the west. Afrin operation has de-facto started in the field. Manbij will follow,” Erdogan said.

Erdogan has repeatedly said he would crush the Syrian Kurdish militia in Afrin, which he views as a security threat to Turkey.

Direct military action against territory held by Kurdish militia opens a new front in Syria’s civil war and sees Ankara confronting Kurds allied to the United States at a time when Turkey’s relations with Washington are reaching breaking point.

The U.S. State Department called on Turkey to focus on the fight against Islamic State militants and described Turkish activity in Afrin as destabilizing.

Defence Minister Nurettin Canikli said on Friday that Turkey’s operation in the region had started with cross-border shelling, but no troops have gone into Afrin.
 
Yesterday at 8:44 PM
News of [this] Hour at gazeta.ru (
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) is Mr. Lavrov says Russian troops are NOT leaving
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...
... and now noticed Russia relocates its military forces from Syria's Afrin: Interfax

Updated an hour ago
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The Russian military operational group and military police have been relocated from Syria’s Afrin where Turkey has started its military operation against the Kurds, Interfax news agency cited the Russian defense ministry as saying on Saturday.
let's wait and see
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
So now the Turks are fighting the Kurds again which means that the Kurds will have to reallocate there forces to hold against Turkey releasing tensions that had helped sideline IS and AQ.
I have said it before I will say it again Syria is a Madmax film in the making.
 
Wednesday at 9:26 PM
Jan 10, 2018

now this is probably the most interesting tactical development:
af6c5ba504a5ea266d8693038a88193d-1.jpg

I set aside the speculations I now read in Russian Internet about why ISIL is there ...
any interest here?
Wednesday at 10:23 PM
how you doing Equation?

in September of last year Government encircled ISIL in
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
area, and what happened then was ISIL ended up in the area (in black below) previously taken by Insurgents:
d9898b86948d8ee045ceaf87a417fdb5.jpg

until recently, that development had been convenient to the Government;
now ISIL took it into the recently gained Government protrusion extended toward
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

and it's unclear what's going to happen next

what happened was Government secured Sanjar area against ISIL, and Government encircled Insurgents; completely schematically shown just using the older map again:
004b6a9aad3237edc2f4b1dbebbd8d08.jpg


here's a detailed view (should be "clickable"; it's
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):
NW-Syria-20jan18-30dey96.jpg
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
So now the Turks are fighting the Kurds again which means that the Kurds will have to reallocate there forces to hold against Turkey releasing tensions that had helped sideline IS and AQ.
I have said it before I will say it again Syria is a Madmax film in the making.
Syria was doing fine before the over dramatize uprising against the Assad government and regime changing attempt.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
Syria was doing fine before the over dramatize uprising against the Assad government and regime changing attempt.
The Civil war started as just that a Civil war, as Assad was in the middle of a extreme Crackdown the locals had enough.
even before
Turkey decided to play against Assad supporting the locals.
Then AQ forces retreating from Iraq decided to use the fight to there advantage and rushed into Syria.
Parts of the military defected
Chemical weapon attacks
Russia joined backing there man Assad.and disarm Obama.
Iran joined.
Turkey changed sides.
The Military defectors were left with there pants down.
AQ splintered into the Self proclaimed Caliphate.
The conflict spilled into Iraq and beyond.
Russia directly struck targets.
The Kurds started fighting.
Turkey started protesting the Kurds.


The root cause remains That Syria was NOT doing just fine. as long as that root cause is there Syria will remain in a civil war.
 
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