ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

Forces fighting the Islamic State group should be able to retake the ISIS-held cities of Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria within the next six months, according to the top U.S. commander in Iraq.

On a tour north of Baghdad Wednesday, U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend said "within the next six months I think we'll see both (the Mosul and Raqqa campaigns) conclude."

Townsend also said he expected the fight for Mosul's western half to begin in days.

Iraqi forces have retaken about half of Mosul — the country's second largest city — since the operation was officially launched in October, following more than two years of coalition-led anti-ISIS operations around Iraq clearing supply lines and partially isolating the city. Last month Iraqi forces declared Mosul's east "fully liberated" and have since largely paused the fight.

Townsend, who heads the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS, said Iraq's military is still in the process of putting forces into place ahead of the push into western Mosul, but predicted operations would begin "in the next few days."

Closely backed by U.S.-led coalition airpower, Iraqi ground forces faced months of grueling urban combat in Mosul that at times brought the front lines to a standstill for weeks. But the pace of operations increased as Iraqi forces closed in on the Tigris River which roughly divides the city.

Townsend credited the quicker progress with better coordination and "lessons learned" on the part of Iraqi forces. But on the ground inside Mosul, Iraqi troops said as they neared the Tigris, ISIS fighters launched fewer car bombs and largely fled their advances — unlike the heavy resistance they faced in the first few weeks of combat inside the city.

Townsend said he expects that the fight for western Mosul will pose a particular challenge for Iraqi forces due to the older neighborhoods and narrower streets.

"It will be a more difficult fight, more constricted," he said.

At times during the Mosul fight, Iraqi forces experienced relatively high casualty rates among some of their most elite and well-trained fighters. Iraqi medics inside Mosul said during some of the heaviest fighting, Iraq's special forces were suffering around 20 casualties— both deaths and serious injuries — a day. Townsend said these high attrition rates were "a concern," but he didn't believe they would hamper the forces moving forward.

In Raqqa, significant ground military operations against ISIS have barely begun. The coalition has been targeting ISIS in the area for more than two years and U.S.-backed Kurdish-led fighters have been on the offensive in nearby areas, mostly north of the city, retaking just a cluster of surrounding villages over the past few months.

On Saturday, the fighters known as the Syria Democratic Forces announced the launch of the "third phase" of the Raqqa operation, which aims at isolating the city from the rest of ISIS-held territories before attacking the city itself. The announcement came a day after aircraft from the U.S.-led coalition destroyed two bridges on the southern edge of Raqqa, the de facto capital of IS' self-declared caliphate.

Iraqi and coalition officials have warned that the extremist group is still expected to pose a security threat in Iraq and beyond, even after it is defeated territorially. Townsend said he hopes U.S. forces can remain inside Iraq even after the Islamic State group is territorially defeated, unlike the withdrawal of forces that occurred in 2011.

"ISIL morphing into an insurgent threat, that's the future," Townsend said using an alternative acronym for the group. On a helicopter ride back to his Baghdad base Wednesday afternoon, he pointed to streets in the Iraqi capital below where he fought the predecessor to IS — al-Qaida in Iraq — and the landmarks targeted by the group with insurgent bombings.

When asked if he thought Iraqi forces would be capable of fighting ISIS when the group returns to its insurgent roots, he replied: "I don't know. We would have to refocus training in those areas."

U.S.-led coalition spokesman Col. John Dorrian, speaking to reporters from Baghdad during a weekly teleconference said he had not seen Townsend's remarks and declined to comment on the timing of the anti-IS operations.

Regarding the looming battle for Raqqa, Dorrian said, "What we would expect is that within the next few weeks the city will be nearly completely isolated, and then there will be a decision point" to launch an assault to retake the city itself.

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Jura said:

I didn't pay any attention to US-supported Kurds pushing towards Raqqa until, well, now when they got close to the Tabqa Dam (?):

pictures, video in the related blog by "Cassad":

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(says ISIL is retreating towards its main defense line closer to Raqqa etc.)

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Jura said:

some time ago
Dec 21, 2016
and now I read

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ISIL would be simply leaving Al-Bab soon ... either way, I wouldn't have thought ISIL could be holding up also in

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for many weeks (the northernmost ISIL-held point in the above map; the most recent map:

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)

EDIT
by the way I noticed the author of the new map in Twitter now said ISIL had retaken 'Bzaah' ...

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1. yesterday ISIL counter-attacked against Kurds in Raqqa area (seems to be confirmed; is understandable: Friday at 9:47 PM
   

   Jura said:

   Jan 6, 2017
   time for an update:
   

   

   
   I've read the Kurds made it to 'Bridge' in middle-top in the map below; if true, it would mean they're about two miles from the downtown:
   

   

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   )
2. and also yesterday ISIL left the siege of Mosul, presumably in the area about 100 km to the west (where the black point is in yellow circle, with the related description in the right banner:
   

Jura said:

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I wondered where would be the nearest intact bridge(s) to move Iraqi armor to the western bank of the Tigris (I've heard of five bridges inside Mosul all damaged ... plus forcefully crossing about one kilometer wide river it's ... a huge tactical challenge)?

...

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Jura said:

Thursday at 10:03 PM

related:
Trump Orders New Military Strategy to Defeat ISIS

source:

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The Pentagon is developing proposals for sending an unspecified number of American military personnel into Syria, conventional ground forces who would augment the 500 combat advisers already there coordinating efforts to destroy the Islamic State.

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, any such deployment would have to be approved by President Donald Trump. However, the commander in chief has directed military leaders to fast track plans for defeating the terror group and, according to White House documents leaked to the media late last month, he has expressed a willingness to expand the United States' presence in war-torn Syria.

Defense Department officials would neither confirm nor deny the report.

"We are in the process of conducting our 30-day review of the strategy to defeat ISIS as directed by the president," said Navy Capt. Jeff Davis, a Pentagon spokesman. ISIS is another name for the Islamic State. "We are considering a number of measures to accelerate the campaign as part of that review, but no decisions have been made."

A spokesman for U.S. Central Command, which oversees the Islamic State campaign in Syria and neighboring Iraq, told Military Times that no deployment announcements are imminent.

However, multiple U.S. Army sources indicated that about two thousand soldiers with the 82nd Airborne Division’s 2nd Brigade Combat Team soon may bolster other Army elements already in the region. Currently, about 1,800 paratroopers from the 2nd BCT are in Iraq participating in the U.S. military's train-and-advise mission. The 82nd Airborne Division is based at Fort Bragg in North Carolina.

Citing an unidentified U.S. defense official, CNN indicated additional deployments could happen within weeks.

Defense Department officials would neither confirm nor deny the report.

"We are in the process of conducting our 30-day review of the strategy to defeat ISIS as directed by the president," said Navy Capt. Jeff Davis, a Pentagon spokesman. ISIS is another name for the Islamic State. "We are considering a number of measures to accelerate the campaign as part of that review, but no decisions have been made."

A spokesman for U.S. Central Command, which oversees the Islamic State campaign in Syria and neighboring Iraq, told Military Times that no deployment announcements are imminent.

However, multiple U.S. Army sources indicated that about two thousand soldiers with the 82nd Airborne Division’s 2nd Brigade Combat Team soon may bolster other Army elements already in the region. Currently, about 1,800 paratroopers from the 2nd BCT are in Iraq participating in the U.S. military's train-and-advise mission. The 82nd Airborne Division is based at Fort Bragg in North Carolina.

Citing an unidentified U.S. defense official, CNN indicated additional deployments could happen within weeks.

Today, there are about 5,000 U.S. troops deployed to Iraq and another 500 in Syria. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis is "actively engaged with his combatant commanders and commanders on the ground to listen to their recommendations and to provide them with the resources and authorities they need to hasten the defeat of ISIS," Davis said.

Since becoming the commander in chief, Trump has pledged to bring more force to bear on the Islamic State, whose de facto capital, Raqqa, is located in northern Syria. Several thousand U.S. allies — a group known collectively as the Syrian Democratic Forces — are engaged in an offensive to liberate the city.

Any large-scale deployment of conventional U.S. military forces would represent a marked departure from the strategy advocated by Trump's predecessor, President Barack Obama, who hoped instead to rely on small special forces teams to train and advise the patchwork of militias with a stake in the militant group's defeat.

Today, there are about 5,000 U.S. troops deployed to Iraq and another 500 in Syria. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis is "actively engaged with his combatant commanders and commanders on the ground to listen to their recommendations and to provide them with the resources and authorities they need to hasten the defeat of ISIS," Davis said.

Since becoming the commander in chief, Trump has pledged to bring more force to bear on the Islamic State, whose de facto capital, Raqqa, is located in northern Syria. Several thousand U.S. allies — a group known collectively as the Syrian Democratic Forces — are engaged in an offensive to liberate the city.

Any large-scale deployment of conventional U.S. military forces would represent a marked departure from the strategy advocated by Trump's predecessor, President Barack Obama, who hoped instead to rely on small special forces teams to train and advise the patchwork of militias with a stake in the militant group's defeat.

It's unclear how any additional U.S. ground troops would be put to work in Syria. American commanders have said there is an urgent need to liberate Raqqa, as intelligence has indicated ISIS militants there are actively plotting attacks on the U.S. and its allies in the Middle East and Europe.

The White House also indicated last month that it could task the military with establishing "safe zones" in Syria for the estimated 11 million refugees who've been forced from their homes as a result of the violence there.

That prospect, outlined in an early draft of the president's controversial executive order seeking to ban migrants from seven countries with Muslim majorities, has proven exceedingly sensitive. Some estimates have suggested that to do so, the U.S.-led coalition would have to deploy upwards of 30,000 ground troops. Such a commitment could prove deeply unpopular both in the U.S. and overseas.

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Jura said:

Syrian Air Force is in the process of receiving modernized Fencers (Су-24М2

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to be precise) from the Russians; the source

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says two copies have been already obtained, eight more to follow

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