ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

Jura said:

^^^
funny discussion of these videos under the popular military blog, too:

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delft said:

My knowledge of Russian is slight. Please explain.

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Russia and Turkey say Syrian government forces and rebels will begin a truce at midnight on December 30. Other details are thin.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday the Syrian government and rebels opposed to President Bashar al-Assad have reached a ceasefire to end the fighting in the more-than-five-year civil war.

Here’s what we know so far about the agreement—and its potential implications:

Who is involved?

The Syrian government and, according to Russia’s defense minister, seven armed groups who command about 60,000 fighters. The Defense Ministry

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the groups as Feilak al-Sham (4,000 fighters), Ahrar al-Sham (16,000), Jaysh al-Islam (12,000), Thuwar al-Sham (2,500), Jaysh al-Mujahideen (8,000), Jaysh Idlib (6,000), Jabhat al-Shamiyah (3,000).

When will it go into effect?

December 30 at midnight,

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Turkey’s Foreign Ministry.

Who will ensure the truce isn’t broken?

The Turkish Foreign Ministry says Turkey and Russia will jointly monitor the ceasefire; Russian President Vladimir Putin

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Iran on that list. Russia and Iran support Assad; Turkey supports some rebel groups.

Who is excluded?

The state-run Syrian Arab News Agency

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Jabhat al-Nusra (the group now known as Jabhat Fateh al-Sham), ISIS, and affiliated groups are excluded.

What’s next?

The agreement that is reached will be submitted to the UN Security Council later Thursday, the Russian foreign minister said. Both Turkey and Russia said representatives of the Syrian government and the rebels will meet soon in Astana, the Kazakh capital. Turkey added that they will be accompanied by the guarantor countries.

What else do we know?

Putin

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the agreement was detailed in three documents. He said the first was signed by the Syrian government and the opposition to stop hostilities; the second to control the ceasefire; and the third “a declaration of intention for Syrian settlement.” No other details of the content of those documents have been released.

What is unclear?

No rebel commanders have yet publicly commented on the ceasefire. But Ahmad Ramadan, a spokesman for the Syrian National Coalition, a major opposition group,

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the AP that the Free Syrian Army (FSA), a coalition of rebel groups, will abide by the truce, but will retaliate to violations by Syrian forces and their allies. Separately, Al Jazeera

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that on Wednesday the negotiating arm of the largest group of rebels fighting under the banner of the FSA “said they had yet to be in contact with anyone and had not been invited to participate in talks.”

Why now?

The Syrian civil war has dragged on for more than five years. Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been killed and millions more displaced. In the early days of the fighting, it appeared as if Assad would go the way of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi, but Russia became involved in November 2015. Since that time, Assad, backed by Russian airstrikes and Iranian fighters, as well as members of Shiite Lebanese militia Hezbollah, made steady gains. Earlier this month, government forces captured all of Aleppo, Syria’s largest city that was divided since 2012. The recapture of the city means Assad now controls the overwhelming majority of Syria’s population centers. Rebels still control territory, including Idlib province, but are on the defensive. Assad is likely to stay in power for now and Russia can scale back its military involvement in Syria—as Putin himself acknowledged Thursday. Assad and his allies can also turn their attention to ISIS, al-Nusra, which was previously linked to al-Qaeda, and other groups it deems as terrorists.

Will the truce last?

Short answer: It’s anyone’s guess, but past attempts at a ceasefire have failed, and Putin himself acknowledged that conditions are “fragile.” It’s unclear if Assad has the incentive not to target other rebel groups, though he is believed to be weak without Russian support. It’s also unclear if all the rebel groups will abide by a truce—or whether the guarantors of the ceasefire—Russia, Turkey, and Iran—agree on which of the rebels are terrorist organizations, and, consequently, can be targeted. Indeed, commentators

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Russia had labeled two of the groups included in the ceasefire list—Ahrar al-Sham and Jaish al-Islam—as terrorists last month.

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Jura said:

haven't seen supposedly cool pictures from Mosul posted here for a while, so I did some digging now ... I've read in Russian Internet the Iraqis are bleeding against ISIL there (I'll leave it at that) ... the main stream Western article (my top-one google-search
mosul+offensive
hit):
Iraqi Forces Begin Second Phase Of Massive Mosul Offensive
Security forces are in locked in a fierce battle to take back the city from ISIS.

source:

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Iraq's special forces continued to push back Islamic State militants in the eastern sector of Mosul on Friday in intense fighting that forced scores of people to flee their homes.

The fighting in the Quds neighborhood came a day after

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to stage a multi-pronged offensive in eastern Mosul east of the Tigris River.

The latest push, aided by airstrikes and artillery from a U.S.-led coalition, is taking place under clear and sunny skies and, if the weather holds, was expected to continue until all forces in the eastern sector reach the Tigris River.

Iraqi government forces launched a large-scale offensive in mid-October to retake Mosul, the last major urban center held by the extremist group in Iraq. The offensive, however, had stalled about two months later because of the presence inside Mosul of some one million civilians, stiff IS resistance and the lack of urban warfare experience among some Iraqi units.

In the northern sector of Mosul, troops of the 16th Division, bolstered by reinforcements, began their own push, storming the Hadbaa district to dislodge the militants.

The fighting in the eastern Mosul forced scores of residents to flee on foot Friday, making their way through dirt berms, debris and government troops' firing positions to find relative security elsewhere in the city. In scenes that have become common since the battle began in mid-October, adults carried children and the young helped the elderly as they walked to safety while waving a white flag.

Ambulances with wailing sirens dashed from the battlefield to field hospitals elsewhere in the city. Seriously injured civilians were sent to Irbil, capital of the Kurdish region to the east of Mosul.

The United Nations says some 120,000 people have fled Mosul since the offensive began. Most of them are now in displacement camps in the neighboring, self-ruled Kurdish region and south of Mosul. About one million civilians are known to be inside Mosul, preventing the Iraqi military and their allies in the U.S.-led coalition from using overwhelming firepower.

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Jura said:

The Guardian Monday 2 January 2017 23.34 GMT "... the main violations were in an area north-west of Damascus in the rebel-held Wadi Barada valley, where government forces and the Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah group have been trying to press their advances."

Russia Today "Published on Jan 2, 2017
Syrian Arab Army (SAA) troops continued their offensive in the Wadi Barada area of Damascus, Monday, reportedly reaching the gates of militant-held area."

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delft said:

The "rebels" complaining are ten of the dozens of groups belonging to FSA which are mixed in with groups outside of the cease fire. They should just get out of the way while the government deals with their murderous friends.

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"Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (

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: جبهة فتح الشام‎‎,

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: Jabhat fatḥ ash-Shām, "Front for the Conquest of the Levant"), formerly known as the al-Nusra Front ..."

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Jura said:

...

Russia Today "Published on Jan 2, 2017
Syrian Arab Army (SAA) troops continued their offensive in the Wadi Barada area of Damascus, Monday, reportedly reaching the gates of militant-held area."

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