A well-trained, well-organised, well-led, and moderately well armed army does not suddenly spring into being out of nowhere in an instant. It took time, training and experience for ISIS go from fanatical individuals into an effective fighting force.
Not only did the west actively help create the perfect breeding ground for ISIS in Libya by giving ISIS the opportunity to organise, recruit, train, plan and ultimately launch their attack in Iraq. Many of the core fighters who went on to form the backbone of ISIS got training from western, Turkish and Gulf state special forces instructors, first in Libya, then in Turkey or Syria.
Without Libya and Syria, half of Iraq would not have fallen to ISIS, or at a minimal, would not have fallen so spectacularly rapidly as to allow ISIS to capture the huge weapons stocks and money they did.
But this is all off topic.
Back to the main subject, the war of words between Russia and the US is escalating in the aftermath of the US air strikes on Syria government forces.
The US response to this disaster has been feeble at best, and the Russians are certainly not going to let them off the hook easily.
The only way the US could salvage the ceasefire deal is to offer Russia major concessions, which the US are currently resisting.
The Russians are incrementally upping the pressure by walking slowly away from the negotiating table, all the while reminding the world it was a frankly embarrassing (if it did really happen as claimed) balls-up by the US military that is the core reason.
The US has also unwittingly crossed a dangerous line by killing Syrian government troops so directly and publically.
Now their own special forces on the ground are going to be in unprecedented danger, as even if the Syrians and Russians don't actively go gunning for them when the fighting resumes, they are going to be far less inclined to go out of their way to prevent US forces ending up on the wrong end of 'friendly fire'.
If US ground forces end up under an air strike or artillery barrage, the Russians and Syrians could quite legitamtely pariot back America's own feeble excuses about it being a complext situation and add America refusal to share Intel and co-ordinate the fight as further factors leading to the 'accident'.
I would almost expect such a 'friendly fire' incident to happen around late October, early November time.
Trump would absolutely blame it all on Obama, which leaves Hillary in the awkward position of having to choose to either stand by the president (and risk taking a beating in the polls), or have both candidates for US president agree that the deaths of US service personnel are Obama's (and by extension, the US government's) fault rather than Syria or Russia's.
The US strategy of relying on 'moderate rebels' was a total pipe dream from the start.
They need to either go big like the Turks and deploy ground forces officially and in significant enough numbers to take ISIS head-on without needing to rely on unreliable rebels, or get out of dodge and pull their ground forces out or risk gift wrapping Syria and Russia the perfect fulcrum to have a perhaps decision impact on the upcoming US presidential elections.
