ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

I think I've said this before: I like Propaganda :)

Yesterday at 2:10 PM
... now the official (РИА) headline is The Only Entry Into Aleppo Cut Off By Illegal Combatants
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

(dated 13:26 06.08.2016)
the "Road of Life" the article refers to is marked in red, called "Supply road" in the map I now clipped out from
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
:
90DbO.jpg
full of expression, anti-Government picture which purports to shows the first "humanitarian convoy" into the previously besieged Aleppo, "Road of Life" "reversed now":
CpQgpiIUEAQssSz.jpg
my comment: had the situation been reversed, the other side would've posted the same LOL!
 
will attempt a more general post now; I went through Twitter and Russian Internet and noticed many people "mulling" the Southern Aleppo situation and

#1 what the Government should do now? the main opinions were
  1. counter-strike ASAP (before anti-Government forces are able to fortify the corridor);
  2. counter-strike after carefully prepared offensive;
  3. pessimistic
#2 where anti-Government forces should take it now? there's like a poll for this:
tPpwa.jpg


in my comfortable chair, I clicked "South" (so I must be wrong hahaha): I think this would make possible to later move it against
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

and the area I noticed long time ago:
Dec 5, 2015
...
04wYx.jpg

Tat (Zeraa to the west is probably Government-controlled) which is just about five miles from
Hama-Khanasir-Aleppo road (shown in yellow by Jabul Lake in top-right corner) ...
to cut the supply route of "Army Group Aleppo" in those places
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
The battle for Aleppo is clearly far from over and experience does teach you to find the truth in the space between the rival claims.

I think it is petty obvious that rebel claims to have forced a siege breaking salient several kilometres wide occupying all the Military base and surrounding districts are rather over optimistic readings of the situation, as indeed just as Government claims to have repelled the rebels from all areas are premature.

My guess is that you have a very fluid situation with some mixed rebel and SAA presence throughout the contested zone, with positions changing hands both ways on a regular basis. The rebels may indeed have been able to physically link with groups inside Aleppo, but that the link is little more than a thread and of no logisitical value whatsoever.
I still suspect that the main objective is simply to open a temporary path for the trapped fighters to get out and join the main body in Idlib.

I can think of three factors that currently mitigate against the rebels:
1) The fragility of their alliances and the speed they degenerate into infighting the moment things go wrong and descend into recrimination.
2) The likelihood of the SAA to trap the lot in a new cauldron by launching a pincer through the now manpower denuded Western countryside. (I base this on the reports of where Russia is bombing and where pro Government reinforcements are apparently being deployed).
3) The Putin Erdogan summit in Moscow tomorrow. Erdogan is royally peed at the US for; what he sees, as its role in the coup and apparently, grateful to Moscow for an early tip off.
Is a seismic re-alignment now on the cards?

The war has not stopped away from Aleppo and the SAA are reporting further progress is around Damascus in Darayya and East Ghouter.
More significantly is the news that Government forces in Latakia have recaptured Kinsibba and (this time) all the high points around it, to ensure no more suicide VBIED's can make it all pear shaped again. It also suggests that the rebels on this front are also denuded of man power on account of the Aleppo offensive.

Dust not likely to clear on Aleppo for a while yet I suspect.
 
Last edited:
I'll repeat here what I said in the pub yesterday, which was the level of Internet-coverage of this war is unprecedented. I'll give one example I noticed now;

G4xO5.jpg

this is a pro-Government video, posted in Twitter yesterday, which claimed the Government was still in the eastern corner of "1070 Apartments" https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...no-oped-no-policis.t6913/page-400#post-408083
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...no-oped-no-policis.t6913/page-400#post-408083
and the obvious feature is the water tower; using previous information in Internet, it's relatively easy to locate it:
BFMo8.jpg

and confirm that claim (perhaps you should trust me: more than 30 years ago my task was to take azimuths quickly under oxygen deficit during team competitions with the names like Partizan's Submachine Gun Trophy LOL!
 

delft

Brigadier
From Daily Mail on line:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!




    • Footage shows a team of UK Special Forces, believed to include the SAS, keeping watch in Syria for IS militants
    • The troops are armed with heavy machine guns and are defending a Syrian rebel base from barbaric murderers
The Special Forces are fighting alongside moderate rebels in the New Syrian Army. The rebels are based at the Al-Tanaf base, which used to be held by IS; a fierce counter-offensive has been raging as they try to take it back.

On several occasions, the British Special Forces have crossed the border from Jordan into Syria to provide support to the New Syrian Army.

A New Syrian Army spokesman refused to comment on the pictures of the Special Forces, but said: 'We are receiving special forces training from our British and American partners. We're also getting weapons and equipment from the Pentagon as well as complete air support.'

So the New Syrian Army intended to defeat ISIS needs to be defended against ISIS by a dozen British soldiers.
 
Last edited:
I've read in Russian Internet
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
(fresh maps inside)
sides are mainly pulling reinforcements to Southern Aleppo now, so l looked back a little bit:

Aug 1, 2016
...
... and after those loses, based on
Wednesday at 6:58 PM
... (in case you decided to look at it :) it's tilted by about 90 decrees: north is to the right):
Co7N0dwXYAAAfqG.jpg
the situation was approximately like this:
mPhdB.jpg

both Al-Hikma (top-left corner) and Musrifah (in middle-bottom) lost by the Governement, but the "Barrier" (from middle-top) holding, some units in front of it ("Tel Mu'tah" which I believe is some hill), so ... there seem to be no obstacles toward the Artillery Base to the south from "Barrier" (where I put the red dots), and anti-Government force quickly get to the gates (the main gate is, OK was, in top-right corner above), so my point is the other barrier should've been built there

my armchair-generalling may be right or wrong :) the area commander has been replaced anyway:
CpW6ZI4WcAA6Iuc.jpg

(the new one is to the left; in the middle is SF "Tigers" commander EDIT according to
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 
Last edited:

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
From Daily Mail on line:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!



So the New Syrian Army intended to defeat ISIS needs to be defended against ISIS by a dozen British soldiers.
I guess that the number of the New "Syrian" Army is less than the number of SAS protecting them. When the last man of the New "Syrian" Army is gone, SAS men will just change their clothes to be the New New "Syrian" Army.:D
 
Aug 3, 2016
...
But all some people need to know :) is

"... as of 0400 hours [apparently of August 1st, as the description of this video says Streamed live on Aug 1, 2016] the [Southern Aleppo anti-Government] offensive was foiled; more than 800 Illegal Combatants KIA ..."

since it was said, for the record, around this moment:
gw8pD.jpg

in
and here's new edition; after this moment:
yT2Yg.jpg

he says [as of yesterday] it's completely excluded Illegal Combatants in Eastern Aleppo can be supplied from Southwest Aleppo area ... "There are no American tanks in Bagdad" LOL!
EDIT
r

Sergei Rudskoy, head of Russian General Staff's main operations command, arrives for a news briefing on Syria, in Moscow, Russia, August 10, 2016.
Reuters/Maxim Zmeyev
 
Last edited:
ehm
House GOP Probe: Central Command Skewed ISIS-Fight Intel
US military leaders altered intelligence reports to paint a rosier picture of the US fight against the Islamic State than intelligence analysts believed and facts warranted, a House Republican task force has concluded.

The task force released a 15-page report Thursday, after a five-month investigation, corroborating earlier news that analysts felt leaders within Central Command’s intelligence directorate “experienced an attempt to distort or suppress intelligence.” The report suggests the cooked intelligence tainted reports to President Barack Obama, national security officials, and the public—which lawmakers felt may have endangered US troops.

House Intelligence Committee and task force member Mike Pompeo, R-Kan., said Thursday that Central Command’s top intelligence leaders “manipulated” intelligence “to downplay the threat from ISIS in Iraq.”

“The result: Consumers of those intelligence products were provided a consistently ‘rosy’ view of U.S. operational success against ISIS,” Pompeo said in a statement. “That may well have resulted in putting American troops at risk as policymakers relied on this intelligence when formulating policy and allocating resources for the fight.”

Pompeo led the task force alongside House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee member Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Calif., and House Armed Services Committee member Brad Wenstrup, R-Ohio.

Their report blames “structural and management changes” at the intelligence directorate, which began in mid-2014. The problems followed the change in Central Command’s leadership from Marine Gen. James Mattis, as CENTCOM commander, to Army Gen. Lloyd Austin.

The distorted intelligence led Pentagon officials to make public statements in the first half of 2015 about the fight that were more positive than the intelligence supported, according to the report.

For example, in the spring of 2015, Austin said in congressional testimony that the major military assault to retake Mosul would begin as early as April or May and said the Islamic State was in a “defensive crouch.” Not only did leaders feel the characterization mismatched their assessments, but a week later, Islamic fighters State overran Iraqi positions in Ramadi, forcing a retreat.

The optimistic reports may have also colored the views of other senior national security leaders who Central Command’s senior intelligence officials would brief frequently, such as the director of the Defense Department’s Joint Staff, then Air Force Lt. Gen. David Goldfein, and Director of National Intelligence James Clapper. Clapper would in turn brief President Obama.

“The frequency of these interactions could have provided CENTCOM leaders with outsized influence on the material presented to the President outside of formal coordination channels,” the report concluded.

The task force followed reports that analysts filed a formal complaint alleging senior military leaders altered reports to downplay the strength of the Islamic State and al-Qaeda's branch in Syria. A survey of 125 analysts, directed by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, “showed that a substantial number of CENTCOM respondents felt their supervisors distorted, suppressed, or substantially altered analytic products.”

According to the report, after the fall of Mosul in June, 2014, and the start of the US-led offense, senior leaders at Central Command’s intelligence directorate deepened their involvement in the creation of intelligence products. Those officials “regularly performed line-in/line-out edits and wording changes which were perceived by analysts as more frequent.”
source is DefenseNews:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

and at the end, there's the text of the report (the link to it is
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 
Top