ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)
- Thread starter Jeff Head
- Start date
Interesting!
One evening of chaos in Turkey and the situation in Syria near the Turkish border changes dramatically.
It seemed likely that trust between Erdogan and Turkish army would now be at an all time low and this seems to be supporting that conjecture.
It did always seem likely that the Turkman rebels in Latakia and Aleppo were being heavily supported by the Turkish state and military. The contrast in fortune over the last 24 hours is I think, highly suggestive.
Can we assume that; irrespective of any other outcome, that the Coup last night has effectively put Turkey out of the war for the foreseeable future?
One evening of chaos in Turkey and the situation in Syria near the Turkish border changes dramatically.
It seemed likely that trust between Erdogan and Turkish army would now be at an all time low and this seems to be supporting that conjecture.
It did always seem likely that the Turkman rebels in Latakia and Aleppo were being heavily supported by the Turkish state and military. The contrast in fortune over the last 24 hours is I think, highly suggestive.
Can we assume that; irrespective of any other outcome, that the Coup last night has effectively put Turkey out of the war for the foreseeable future?
Question is: What was the coup about? Did this military faction want to continue the war in Syria and did it object to Turkey talking about resuming relations with Syria, as was mentioned by the Turkish PM a few days ago? Was the coup induced by sponsors of the terrorists? Saudi Arabia?
Addenda:
I'm just reading Ambassador Bhadrakumars blog post, with another view of the matter:
Addenda:
I'm just reading Ambassador Bhadrakumars blog post, with another view of the matter:
Last edited:
I agree.
I also want to add that, the Coup is an exposure of what was happening out of light in the past months, a demonstration of crack within the Turkish state. We should connect the Coup with the very recent re-approachment of Turkey to Russia and Israel, someone in the establishment was very unhappy with what Erdogan did to Turkish international environment, someone has hade enough and was planning to change it by force. Erdogan smelt the smoke of fire, began to turn the course, but someone think that is not enough and Erdogan is the problem and must go, therefor the coup.
The opposition to the coup in Turkey is massive. It is not limited to Erdogan's AKP, which got more than 50% of the votes at recent elections but also the secular Kemalists and others. ( Iran's foreign minister condemned the coup before it was clear it was failing. ) So the probable initiative came from outside Turkey.See for a thoughtful consideration of the implications this article in Atimes by Ambassador Bhadrakumar:
Jura The idiot
General
Yesterday at 2:52 PM
conceded the Government had lost Kinsabba since the time of your post ... could this be a problem for your theory?
recently even a pro-Government Twitter account
conceded the Government had lost Kinsabba since the time of your post ... could this be a problem for your theory?
There is no official confirmation of this except claims from a few Jihadi websites and bloggers.
The most recent item on Kinsibba is from FARS today and it claims that the SAA have repelled all counter attacks.
That there have been counterattacks is hardly a surprise, neither is the notion of a high degree of fluidity in the line of contact.
Thanks Delft, Bhadrakumar is certainly a safe port in a storm and his points are highly pertinent.
Thanks for the article.
As this thread is not focused on Turkey, but related, I am not sure I should continue my thought here. So please allow me to clarify the base of my thinking.
The article by Bhadrakumar seems to point the figure solely outside of Turkey which is not really against my thought. I do not make difference between Kemalists or Gulenists. If they all have their people within the Turkish state machinery and oppose AKP, they are the same. The only difference is that Gulen can not safely reside in Turkey.
I agree Erdogan has a majority support from the voters. But it is very obvious that he is much less popular in the state machinery. If we believe what western media reported so far, , the arrests after the coup has raised to more than 6000 and will probably go higher. The arrested include not only high ranking officers including commanders of second and third army, former chief of air staff, commander of Incirlik air base etc. Among the arrested are also more than 200 (270 something last time I checked) judges.
Regarding the opposition party (including Kemalists)'s support, I am sure they will, at least openly, condemn the coup. A coup is a coup, which is illegal in any constitution regardless the purpose. No political party who want to work in the constitutional framework is going to support a coup, not openly, and surely not after it has failed. Doing so would make that party an illegal organization and be banned. We know that the opposition in Egypt did not call for a coup when Morssi was in office, they didn't condemn Gen. Al Sissi after his coup either. So I would not put much meaning to the opposition's words in Turkey either.
So to clarify, the gap I was talking about is the gap between the power holders within the state machine, they are very often not the same as the mass.
Jura The idiot
General
... and your
By -
18/07/2016
sounds tense
All-or-nothing battle immerses strategic Latakia town
oh and he has a sentence on the previous situation "Over the weekend, the jihadist rebels of Jaysh Al-Fateh recaptured Kinsibba and its surrounding hills after launching a counter-attack against the Syrian Armed Forces." so I can repeat myself:
Yesterday at 10:05 AM