ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

SampanViking

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What a balancing act being played out!
Just for the record, I have never really bought into the freely making available of the strategic battle plans of the Russian led coalition, so not really surprised if they are not attacking targets as advertised in the press.

What I do suspect is that a degree of flexibility is being retained in order to take advantage of weakness and or disarray, as it occurs.
The recent Government offensive in East Homs seems to have caused ISIS to redeploy very substantial forces away from other fronts. This has allowed the Rebels in North Aleppo to launch; no doubt massively aided by Turkey, a sweeping offensive along the Turkish border, with a presumed intention of building Turkeys long sought buffer zone between the two Kurd controlled areas and therefore stymi attempts to spread and link with each other.

Clearly Russia and Syria is not about to slug it out in East Homs and the roads East against large numbers of well dug in ISIS fighters and so have switched to other objectives, which will leave ISIS able to return its fighters to Aleppo and for them and the Rebels to waste their strength on each other as the Government turns its apparent attention to Idlib.

Again there could be a element of bluff in this one too, as all these SAA redeployments means that Al Nusra and ISIS have to move their forces out of their defences and move to new positions as well. A very dangerous pursuit for forces with no Air Force against the one that has!
 
I do not follow developments very closely ...
I would've liked to, but sources in English, which I used to follow, this week contained ... wishful thinking at best, of both sides ... didn't see almost anything new in Russian (I mean also at militarymaps.info), OK yesterday Russian Ministry of Defense issued sorta warning against anti-Government offensive in Aleppo area:
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(hard to put this info anywhere :) ... and I don't know Arabic, so before commenting, I'll wait in my armchair for let's say three videos saying they show what the other videos say they show
 
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delft

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From RT:
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Syria prepares op to liberate Aleppo, Russia to assist – Damascus
Published time: 10 Apr, 2016 10:06
Edited time: 10 Apr, 2016 10:26

After liberating Palmyra from terrorist group Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL), Syrian forces are now preparing a similar operation for the country’s second-largest city, Aleppo, according to Syrian PM Wael al-Halaki. Russia is to assist, he added.

Halaki added that Deir ez-Zor would be the next major target for Damascus after taking control of Aleppo.

He was speaking as a parliamentary delegation from Russia visited Syria on Sunday.

The Syrian Army, supported by Russian warplanes, liberated Palmyra last month in a three-week operation. The city is strategically located in central Syria and its capture opened a window of opportunity to further advance to Deir ez-Zor in the east.

However, the situation in Aleppo, which is currently being contested by several rival factions, has recently been aggravated. This week terrorist group Jaysh al-Islam used chemical weapons to attack Kurdish YPG forces, which control one of the city’s neighborhoods.

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is located in northwest Syria, close to the Turkish border, and before the war it was an economic powerhouse of Syria.
You must always consider the possibility that such announcements are intended to be misleading but a similar announcement about the conquest of Palmyra proved to be the real thing.
 

SampanViking

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Very true Delft, but in Palmyra there was not exactly a lot of possible options for a target.
Southern Aleppo is a "target rich environment" and there are multiple options from any physical deployment location.

I also note that ISIS has indeed redeployed to North Aleppo and is recapturing areas recently lost to Rebels along the Turkish border. I also note that the Russian Airforce has been busy in Raqqa province overnight, presumably hitting ISIS convoys on the move.

The question now is the SAA target Aleppo City or the big push into Idlib?
Or is the news of elite force redeployment false and the axe about to fall somewhere wholly unexpected? Would be very interesting if it all has been disinformation and the real target remains Deir ez Zor after all!
 
"Night Hunter" down this night, says ТАСС
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claiming the chopper was not shot at; the crew (of two) dead: bodies recovered, transfered to the Latakia Air Base
(I noticed a moment ago, I might update this post ...
interesting site:
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Interesting info:
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Land Platforms
Analysis: US arms shipment to Syrian rebels detailed
Jeremy Binnie, London and Neil Gibson, London- IHS Jane's Defence Weekly
11 April 2016

Simplified packing list for December 2015 arms shipment

Type Aqaba Agalar Total
7.62x39 mm 85,190 48,998 134,188
7.62x54 mm 58,752 8,652 67,404
12.7 mm 81,468.40 36,713 118,181
14.5 mm 196,233.76 173,447 369,681
82 mm 53,885.34 53,885
PG-7VM 0.00 68,600 68,600
PG-7VT 36,795 88,224.00 125,019
9M111M 13,540 8,153 21,693
AK-47 & DShK* 12,250 12,250
AK-47 & PKM* 6,540 6,540
PKM 6,340 6,340
DShK & RPG-7* 3,585 3,585
RPG-7 4,120 4,120
Faktoria launchers 2,421.60 298 2,720

Total 550,996 443,210 994,206

* The packing list merged some categories

ANALYSIS

Documents released by the US government's Federal Business Opportunities (FBO) website have provided an indication of the types and numbers of East European weapons and ammunition the United States is providing to Syrian rebel groups as part of a programme that continues despite the widely respected ceasefire in that country.

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(138 of 954 words)
 

delft

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I should have seen this yesterday:
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says that the offensive to liberate Aleppo has been at least delayed because 10 000 men of the Al Qaeda franchise threaten to cut the supply road from Damascus to Aleppo. That's a good target to destroy. Might it be that the announcement of the Aleppo offensive was meant to move the terrorists to do just that and so destroy them where losses for the Syrian army might be less than when fighting in the city of Aleppo and the towns of the Aleppo province?
 
Very true Delft, but in Palmyra there was not exactly a lot of possible options for a target.
Southern Aleppo is a "target rich environment" and there are multiple options from any physical deployment location.

I also note that ISIS has indeed redeployed to North Aleppo and is recapturing areas recently lost to Rebels along the Turkish border. I also note that the Russian Airforce has been busy in Raqqa province overnight, presumably hitting ISIS convoys on the move.

The question now is the SAA target Aleppo City or the big push into Idlib?
Or is the news of elite force redeployment false and the axe about to fall somewhere wholly unexpected? Would be very interesting if it all has been disinformation and the real target remains Deir ez Zor after all!

Syrian government forces + allies aren't strong enough to launch all these attacks simultaneously, or even a single major one especially with the Russian drawdown, and Deir ez Zur is too out of the way. I think they are all attempts to lure opponents out from dug in positions so whatever limited airpower can be brought to bear opportunistically. It's still a war of attrition and cat and mouse.
 

delft

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From Al Masdar News:
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ISIS captures 7 more villages near the government supply line to Aleppo
By
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15/04/2016

The Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham’s (ISIS) official media wing “Al-Amaq” reported that their forces captured 7 more villages in southeast Aleppo after advancing from the nearby Maskanah Plains on Thursday.

Al-Amaq did not name the villages they captured from the Syrian Arab Army (SAA); however, they are once again near the Khanasser Highway that leads from the Hama Governorate to Aleppo City.

Earlier today, ISIS reported that they seized the village of Burj Al-‘Atshanah in the Khanasser Plains after a violent battle with the Syrian Armed Forces.

With ISIS quickly approaching the Khanasser Highway, the Syrian Armed Forces will have to mobilize more soldiers to help drive back the terrorist group.
It seems the Daesh attack is even heavier than expected when Syria abandoned its effect to clear the whole of Aleppo some days ago.
 
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SampanViking

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It certainly seems to be a major assault. Whether the aim is too cut the Highway (unlikely to be effective for very long, as we have recently seen) or; and more likely IMHO, an attempt to draw forces away from other fronts, where ISIS is under pressure is moot.

In February, it was the Tigers that turned the tide, during the February Assault. Today the Tigers are operating East of Palmyra.

Would the most daring response to this attack be a stronger push East towards Deir-Ez Zor and make ISIS redeploy?
 
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