ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

FORBIN

FORBIN

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The situation in Syria has clearly improved since end November
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With more big Russian support since end september mainly about 50 fighters bombers ...maybe also deliveries as T-90 by example but seems in few qty all arriving hidden with Ropucha/Alligators pass through the Turkish Straits with definitely ammunitions.

For areas controled by sides/Front lines change interesting see maps for a comparison, come on Jura :D your the specialist ;)



The tempo of Russian air operations slowed considerably from January 4 - 7. ISW was only able to confirm 17 locations of Russian airstrikes during the reporting period, the lowest volume of Russian strikes since early October 2015. The cause of this decrease currently remains unclear; as the lull may have been caused by changing weather conditions, shifts in Russian posturing inside Syria, or deferred maintenance activities following several weeks of heavy Russian airstrikes.

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P

PanAsian

Major
asif iqbal said:
Amazing how much support Putin is giving Syria

Nor Serbia, Saddam or Gaddafi but with Assad Russia has set the bar high

I always said Russia would go to war for Assad and they sure did

Syria is now pretty much de facto Russian territory or might as well be

Not surprised, Bashers father was a good friend of the Soviet Union and Putin is ex KGB he know the ties go back decades

During the height of the Cold War two American carrier strike groups roamed the Mediterranean 24/7 365 and Hafeez gave USSR Latakia, it was the best present USSR ever got I don't think they will ever forget that
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I can't agree more with the rest of your post but "Syria now pretty much de facto Russian territory"? That's far from the truth. It's more like the Syrian government would have a hard time maintaining its hold on its territory, and even its survival, the moment they stop receiving Russian air support. The Syrian government continues to face manpower problems despite ground support from Iran and Hezbollah.

Even now Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies are most likely free to reinforce rebels from the south. Jordan has been suspiciously quiet throughout the entire conflict save for the short episode involving one of its pilots, despite it bordering critical rebel held areas and sharing vast stretches of desert with both Syria and Iraq which is probably a "no man's land" smugglers' haven in the context of this conflict. Turkey may have to work harder at it but Syria's northern border still have stretches open for support for rebels to come in.
 
P

PanAsian

Major
Jura said:
...
Battle_for_Northern_Syria_January_5_4AM.png
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I am somewhat confused by the "SDF" labels on this map. Is this the new name for the Kurdish forces and their allies? Western/US supported rebels and Kurds are "SDF" as compared to Gulf/Turkey supported "Rebels"?
 
D

delft

Brigadier
Jura said:
... briefly trying to follow your stream of thoughts LOL I got into (maybe wrongly!)
the third paragraph of
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(in the process I realized how limited is my knowledge of the Dutch history :)
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It's a pretty good resume of the war in the area around that time. I read more than forty years ago an account of the war in the area before the big leaders arrived but intended to provide them with clear roads to Groningen. It looked rather unorganized but the principle was that when a force arrived at a strong point that was defended by a force that was slightly weaker, say twelve men against eight, it would go away again. Was the force much stronger, say twenty against eight, the strong point was given up and the weak force departed with their weapons, flags and drums or, if they didn't, they were attacked and all were killed unless they won. There were many small roads with even more strong points and it took years. So it was all about logistics: providing enough soldiers to overawe the defenders or sending enough reinforcement to see off the attackers, if you got to know soon enough what the other party planned to do. ( BTW I earlier told about the professor of military history, a former Lt.Col. in the Dutch army, I met in 1973 who had never thought about the logistics of the French invasion of the Netherlands along the river Rhine in 1672.)
 
D

delft

Brigadier
PanAsian said:
I can't agree more with the rest of your post but "Syria now pretty much de facto Russian territory"? That's far from the truth. It's more like the Syrian government would have a hard time maintaining its hold on its territory, and even its survival, the moment they stop receiving Russian air support. The Syrian government continues to face manpower problems despite ground support from Iran and Hezbollah.

Even now Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies are most likely free to reinforce rebels from the south. Jordan has been suspiciously quiet throughout the entire conflict save for the short episode involving one of its pilots, despite it bordering critical rebel held areas and sharing vast stretches of desert with both Syria and Iraq which is probably a "no man's land" smugglers' haven in the context of this conflict. Turkey may have to work harder at it but Syria's northern border still have stretches open for support for rebels to come in.
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A few weeks ago Russia and Jordan established a centre for military coordination in Amman:
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. This must make support of the terrorists in Syria more difficult.
 
Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
delft said:
... ( BTW I earlier told about the professor of military history, a former Lt.Col. in the Dutch army, I met in 1973 who had never thought about the logistics of the French invasion of the Netherlands along the river Rhine in 1672.)
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I recalled this one ... the series of posts ends
Jan 13, 2014
with (sounds like I lost back then :)
Jura said:
delft, I misunderstood you, and I'm sorry. Indeed, p. 395 of Wars of the Age of Louis IX, 1650--1715 by Cathal J. Nolan says "French and Dutch armies took field ovens and supplies of grain with them on the march, pausing every several days to bake thousands of loaves of fresh bread". I'm leaving this topic here now. Over. Out.
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but it's unclear how this is related to what's going on somewhere else now, I mean it's fine to bring events like
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(wiki link here because I had to check the spelling), but only in general sense (as symbols), and I don't think the Dutch checkpoints of 1590 etc. etc. are relevant to any checkpoints of the Syrian Civil War, sorry

EDIT
just look at WW2 Eastern Front: certain "doomed" campaigns actually succeeded, yet some "unstoppable" failed
 
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Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
FORBIN said:
09/01
Moments ago, the Syrian Arab Army’s elite special operations division – the “Tiger Forces” – launched a major assault on the villages of ‘Ayishah, Tal Hatabat, ‘Ayn Al-Thahab, and ‘Ayn Al-Bayda in the Aleppo Governorate’s eastern countryside after they fully secured the village of Najarah in the Deir Hafer Plains.
...
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... could happen, shown on this map:
CYaTd8FUsAQHjQL.jpg


but ... Nov 20, 2015
Jura said:
...
CUMYyCcUwAAotpW.jpg:large
showing the push for
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? or following "M4"?
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Isn't it risky to create such a protrusion, changing its shape in time EDIT wide only about two miles at its base!, into enemy territory?
 
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PanAsian

Major
Interesting, but I imagine much more complicated to get working properly with target detection and tracking than if IS just got their hands on some manpads.

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The Islamic State's improvised SAM

Neil Gibson, London and Jeremy Binnie, London - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly
10 January 2016

Key Points
The Islamic State is apparently trying to make a SAM system using an R-13 air-to-air missile
If the militant group can overcome the technical challenges, the resulting system would still not be a significant threat to coalition aircraft or civilian airliners
Sky News stoked new fears about aviation security on 5 January, when it broadcast footage showing Islamic State militants apparently attempting to turn an air-to-air missile into a surface-to-air missile (SAM) system.

Sky said it obtained the footage from Syrian rebels who found it on an Islamic State trainer they captured as he attempted to reach Turkey. It claimed the footage showed how Islamic State weapons experts working at the "jihadi university" in the Syrian city of Al-Raqqah had worked out how to "recommission thousands of missiles assumed by Western governments to have been redundant through old age" by manufacturing new thermal batteries.

While a complete missile did not feature in the footage, the guidance section of what appeared to be an AIM-9 Sidewinder was seen. Cyrillic writing on one of its control surfaces suggested it was an R-13 (AA-2 'Atoll'): the Soviet copy of the short-range infrared-guided Sidewinder. It was most likely an R-13M variant captured at one of the Syrian air force bases overrun by rebel forces in recent years.

The Sidewinder missile's thermal battery would be extremely difficult to change as it is an integral part of the target detection device (proximity sensor system). The R-13 is probably similar.

Some of the footage showed the missile's guidance section fitted to the hardpoint adaptor used to launch it from an aircraft. This provides the missile with electrical power and compressed gas to cool its seeker before it is launched. It also provides an interface between the missile and the aircraft's fire control system, allowing the pilot to activate the weapon and informing him when its infrared seeker has locked on to a target, facilitating a launch.

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(344 of 710 words)
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D

delft

Brigadier
Jura said:
I recalled this one ... the series of posts ends
Jan 13, 2014
with (sounds like I lost back then :)


but it's unclear how this is related to what's going on somewhere else now, I mean it's fine to bring events like
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
(wiki link here because I had to check the spelling), but only in general sense (as symbols), and I don't think the Dutch checkpoints of 1590 etc. etc. are relevant to any checkpoints of the Syrian Civil War, sorry

EDIT
just look at WW2 Eastern Front: certain "doomed" campaigns actually succeeded, yet some "unstoppable" failed
Click to expand...
Tactically the war is very different but at the operational level I see a remarkable resemblance.
 
FORBIN

FORBIN

Lieutenant General
Registered Member

Military engineers worked on Russian fighter jets at the Hmeymim airbase in Latakia, Sunday, as the Russian air force continues to assist the Syrian army in its campaign against the so-called Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) and other Syrian militants.
The jets, including Sukhoi Su-24s and Su-25s, were seen taking off and landing at the Hmeymim airbase after performing sorties against IS and other militant groups in Syria.
According to Russia's Defence Ministry, the fighter jets have focused on targets in Aleppo, Damascus, Idlib, Latakia, Raqqa, Hama and Homs provinces.
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