In essence...I agree completely.The first 'reason' would be nothing more than an excuse.
I agree with this as well, which in turn would undermine any efforts to get the US to go along with it if they could force some kind of Russian-NATO standoff.I had already voiced my belief that the reason the Turks did this is to pre-emptively sabotage any hope of the French and Russians forming a broad based international coalition with UN mandate to destroy ISIS and other terrorists groups operating in Syria.
I think it is highly unlikely that NATO will agree to fight for Turkey over any such action.The only reason it had the balls to use such a flimsy pretext to shoot down the Russian fighter is because it is expecting the rest of NATO to stand with it and shield it from the consequences of its own highly questionable actions.
But Russia will have to be careful in how it responds.
If the response in any way were viewed as over the top and wholly disproportionate...then Russia would risk giving Turkey what it hopes for.
I agree 100% with this...and have the same hope regarding it.The US and other major NATO members should set a clear precedent and example that membership of NATO and US Ally status does not grant you a free pass to do what you like irrespective of international laws and norms, and so you cannot expect the US and NATO to come pay the butchers' bill for you when you are clearly the aggressor and in the wrong.