ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

Jeff Head

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
ShahryarHedayat said:
Iranian-Brokered Truces Start in Three Syrian Towns

Two-day cease-fires begin as Iranian foreign minister arrives in Damascus for talks with President Assad

Iranian state media has said Tehran plans to present a plan to the United Nations to end
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.
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That proposal will be interesting.

In order to "end the conflict in Syria," it would have to include ISIS somehow, would it not?

ISIS right now is a HUGE anti-Syrian/Assad player and the conflict cannot end without them either being defeated or being brought to the table.

I just cannot imagine Assad and Iran parleying with ISIS after all of their atrocities.

Or am I misreading something here?
 
S

ShahryarHedayat

Junior Member
Jeff Head said:
That proposal will be interesting.

In order to "end the conflict in Syria," it would have to include ISIS somehow, would it not?

ISIS right now is a HUGE anti-Syrian/Assad player and the conflict cannot end without them either being defeated or being brought to the table.

I just cannot imagine Assad and Iran parleying with ISIS after all of their atrocities.

Or am I misreading something here?
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Maybe we should just accept ISIS as a future regional power?

And it means recognizing isis as an Independent country!

OMG thats awful
 
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P

PanAsian

Major
AssassinsMace said:
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US military official: 'We were outraged' when Turkey pulled a fast one right after the anti-ISIS deal
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Turkey is taking a page from the "no fly zone" intervention in Libya against Gaddafi, I wouldn't be surprised if after the Kurds have been bombed sufficiently into the stone age that the airstrikes will then turn to focus against the Syrian government, all the while merely corralling ISIS with token attacks.

Even though the US does not necessarily mind a stalemate among local Middle Eastern powers (the current administration's actions appear consistent with that as the strategic goal) roughly in the camps of Israel, Sunnis, and Shiites, the Sunni camp is not about to give up the dominance their camp enjoyed for decades though they have never truly behaved as a united front. Even with Saddam Hussein's eminently foolish invasion of Kuwait and the botched US invasion of Iraq to end his rule the Sunni camp is still overall the most influential and powerful local faction, even if Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt are not quite all on the same page.

The only way to maintain an overland bridge from Iran to the rump Syrian state on the Mediterranean coast is through Kurdish territory and the Shiite camp has been on business terms with the various Kurdish factions for a while now. The Turkish strikes against the Kurds are to attack the weakest link in the Shiite camp's chain in preparation for any Sunni combatant group, indeed including ISIS, to consolidate a wedge of territory to cut the Shiite east-west geographical link. Despite the Sunni camp's best efforts I don't think Iran and Russia are going to abandon the Syrian government and by extension Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The spot ceasefires arranged by Turkey and Iran are just horsetrading and prepping the chessboard for the next round of fighting while sizing each other up, I don't believe peace or even stalemate disguised as such is in the making. Too much is at stake for the local powers while not enough is at stake for outside powers capable of intervention that this will play out how the local powers want it to.
 
D

delft

Brigadier
plawolf said:
I think the Saudi connection is indeed one of the primary reasons the world's response to ISIS has been so hamstrung thus far. But there is little point in going down that road as it will just lead to recriminations and moderation.

On your point, I simply do not think the Kurds, Syrians, Iranians, Iraqis or anyone else currently engaged in the fight has the raw military and economic strength to win against ISIS, even with US air support.

What you need is for a powerful external military force to come in and smash ISIS, then hunt down as many of the shattered splinters as could be found and chucking grenades down whatever hole they have gone to hide in.

Then and only then will the likes of the Iraqis, Kurds, Syrians etc come into play, to police the aftermath and keep the hard won peace.

Looking around the world, I think there are, realistically, only two or three countries with the necessary military and economic strength to destroy ISIS. They are the US, China and maybe Turkey.

The UK, France and all the other NATO countries simply lack the numbers to engage and fight ISIS over such a large area without taking up pretty much all of their available combat forces (which is never going to be acceptable).

Russia probably still has the military muscle, but lack the financial heft to be able to finance such a massive operation.

The US is exhausted after its previous Middle East (mis)adventures (what a waste Bush II made, had the US not exhausted itself fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, it may have been up to taking on the fight against ISIS in a meaningful way).

China lacks the foreign bases and most importantly, the desire to get involved in any foreign conflicts, and would also be mindful of how badly America would take such a large scale Chinese military campaign in the heart of the ME.

That leaves only Turkey (short of a mass casualty terrorist attack by ISIS on either the US or China as you have suggested).

As such, I think the key to winning the fight against ISIS is to get the Turks "on side".

If I was in charge in the US, I would put massive pressure on the EU to get the Turkish EU membership application moving, and use that as a bargaining chip to get Turkey interested in the fight against ISIS.

To sweeten the deal further, I would allow Turkey to be the kingmakers in Syria, after ISIS is destroyed (might as well remove Assad as well while you are at it), and sell that as a means for Turkey to potentially fully resolve its Kurdish problem, by effectively allowing them to remove potential KKP safe heavens and support bases in Northern Syria and to police that entire area as they see fit after the fall of ISIS.

Package that with massive financial support from America and the EU, and that may be enough to make it worth Turkey's while.

That kinda throws the Kurds under the bus, but they are never going to get a state, and their suffering under Turkish dominion is going to be several orders of magnitude less that how they would suffer under ISIS, so its by far the lessor of the two evils.
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Turkey has been supporting IS because it wants to be kingmaker in Syria. This would be just the wrong kind of price to dangle in front of a country that is one of the sources of the mayhem. It would be encouraging other countries to act irresponsibly.
 
Zool

Zool

Junior Member
Ironic that some time ago now the Syrian Government claimed it was these folks, under the Free Syrian Army banner back then, who were the ones to employ captured chemical weapons. No conclusive proof was ever brought to light one way or the other, but here we have new reports of chemical weapon usage in Iraq:

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German defence ministry says peshmerga fighters in northern Iraq believe they were attacked with rockets filled with chlorine
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Kurdish peshmerga fighters in northern Iraq. Photograph: Hussein Malla/AP
Agence France-Presse in Berlin

Thursday 13 August 2015 15.20 BSTLast modified on Thursday 13 August 201516.01 BST

Kurdish forces fighting
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in northern Iraq have reported being attacked with chemical weapons, according to the German defence ministry.

“We have indications that there was an attack with chemical weapons,” a ministry spokesman said, saying many peshmerga fighters had reportedly been left suffering from respiratory irritation.

A senior official from the peshmerga said the attack happened two days ago and wounded several dozen fighters.

“Last Tuesday afternoon, peshmerga forces in the Makhmur area 30 miles (50km) west of the city of Irbil were attacked with Katyusha rockets filled with chlorine,” the official said on condition of anonymity.

A ministry spokesman said German forces were not present during the attack.

Germany has been supporting the Kurdish peshmerga fighters since September as they push against Isis, and currently has about 90 personnel on the ground.

Isis has previously been accused of using chlorine against Kurdish forces in
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.

In March, the autonomous Kurdish government in northern Iraq said it had evidence that the jihadi group used chlorine in a car bomb attack on 23 January.

Last month, the Conflict Armament Research group and Sahan Research group said Isis had also targeted peshmerga with a projectile filled with an unknown chemical agent on 21 or 22 June.

The chemical used had characteristics and clinical effects “consistent with a chlorine chemical agent”, the groups said.

The organisations said they had also documented two such attacks against Kurdish fighters from the People’s Protection Units in Syria’s north-eastern Hasakeh province on 28 June.

It said that upon impact, the projectiles had released a yellow gas “with a strong smell of rotten onions”.

There were no deaths but troops exposed to it had experienced burning of the throat, eyes and nose, severe headaches, muscle pain, impaired concentration and mobility, and vomiting.
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D

delft

Brigadier
Chlorine was the first poison gas used in WWI, that's why poisons that aren't actually gasses can be called poison gas, but it was so ineffective that it was soon replaced by other agents. I think it is safe to assume that every recent mention of chlorine as a poison agent in the Middle East is just propaganda.
 
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