Is War Coming to Iran?

$750 million for an embassy building in Iraq, for something that could easily just at average cost of around $45 million? You know than there's more to it than meets the eyes (NO not Transformers theme quote), like underground facilities and communication equipment and high tech electronics.

South Africa, Japan, Italy and Germany for example don't have nuclear weapons, but are consider nuclear capable powers. South Africa for sure, because they disarmed their own nukes. Germany and Italy both participated with the French in the development of nukes almost to the detonation, when Charles the Gaulle threw them out and made the project national only. While these nations don't have own(!) ready nuclear weapons, in case of attack they would be capable to assemble nuclear devices and strike back with equal destruction. The US has promised to supply allies under attack with nukes already stationed nearby.
Iran, according to CIA reports, doesn't want to arm nuclear, but achieve nuclear armament capability, like the nations mentioned above. That's within the legal boundaries of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty because every nation has the right to use nuclear armament capability to strike back in case of a nuclear attack, but only select few are allowed to have ready nukes in store.
India for example demonstrated nuclear armament capability decades before declaring themselves nuclear armed, but are not members of the non-proliferation treaty. The non-proliferation treaty has often been violated, but in theory is meant to provide all nuclear know-how in exchange for peaceful use in order to limit the potential use of destructive capabilities for mankind.
Unfortunately, not all nations have at least adopted a second strike doctrine like China and India or even disarmed like South Africa and as long as first strike is part of NATO doctrine, a nation can feel safer with a ready nuke in store. The Iranian problem nicely demonstrates that we have to delete nukes from the list of means suitable for violent solution of conflicts of interests, just like chemical and biological weapons and expanding bullets.
I wouldn't be delighted by Iranian nuclear armament, but we have to concede them a nuclear armament capability that is to be used only according to the treaty they signed.
The current news bits seem a campaign to develop the right atmosphere for a military conflict over an issue that can under these conditions only be solved by deep interference in the powerstructure of this nation. I would consider it a prequel to the reconquest of Iran one way or another.


A note about the very dumb reports I constantly read about nukes:
The amount of nuclear fissile material is the dumbest thing one can publish to measure the capability of building a nuke. You can build a nuke with the smallest amount of fissile material. It's about creating a neutron flux engine and there are a lot of nuclear cores that are suitable for neutron emission and modification of neutron emission for higher interaction (carbon and beryllium for example). These technologies are actually being employed from the oldest known designs of nuclear bombs to modern reactors. Just lumping a critical mass of fissile material together won't blow up nor do you need that amount for such a result.

Some key extracts.

...A decisive moment may arrive when Barack Obama meets Israel's prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, in Washington on 5 March. "The meeting … will be definitive," said Ari Shavit in Haaretz. "If the US president wants to prevent a disaster, he must give Netanyahu iron-clad guarantees the US will stop Iran in any way necessary and at any price after the 2012 [US] elections. If Obama doesn't do this, he will obligate Netanyahu to act before the 2012 elections."

If accurate, this is not much of a choice. It suggests military action by the US or Israel or both is unavoidable, the only question being one of timing...

...In some key respects, the Iran crisis is distinctly different from that over Iraq in 2002-03. As matters stand, similarly strident warmongering surrounding Iran is thus hard to understand or explain – unless the ultimate, unstated objective is not to curb Iran's nuclear programme but, as in Iraq, to overthrow its rulers...

...The present western consensus is that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons capability, but does not have an atomic bomb and is not currently trying to build one. Khamenei said this week that nuclear weapons were "useless and harmful" and that possessing them was sinful . Netanyahu's belief that Israel faces an imminent, existential threat is visceral rather than fact-based. Israel's refusal to acknowledge its own nuclear arsenal, let alone contemplate its reduction, further undermines the case for action...

Click to expand...

Thanks for the post. Israel's motives are understandable if you consider that they want an unlimited ability of nuclear strikes without enemy second strike capability as part of a regionally dominant military. Iran's impeding strike on Israel is pure rhetoric in order to twist truth and knowledge for political ends. I fully understand the Iranian position because their religion has extensive regulations on the use of violence in warfare, making the use of nukes a violation of faith. However, suicide bombers are as well violating the Islamic faith or stretching it beyond limits due to a very questionable fringe interpretation of this religion.
If Israel wants to handicap neighbours from achieving nuclear bomb capability without having a peace treaty with them, like Egypt, it's their operation to handle Iran. Obama could just let Israel have their try and fail at this instead of allowing them to harness the US for their political ends. The Israeli interest in no nuclear bomb capability is a carrot that any sensible politician would use to push the Israelis towards peace settlements with their neighbours, thus eliminating the threat environment that necessitates their violence pursuing policy.
Israel's security would increasingly depend on conventional forces if her neighbours are supported by a power that could muster nukes if required to negate strikes with Israel's arsenal. That's a threat because Iran makes it very clear that they would be willing to provide this support that can make Israel defeatable. The Israeli position is as well logical, but destroying Iran's ambition is just one among many options and much more are close at hand, but defeat convenience.

Iran Daily Brief- Iran's Revolutionary Guards are part of the repression of dissiden info

Iran's Revolutionary Guards are part of the repression of dissidents in Syria

Supreme Leader’s Advisor on International Affairs: Iran strongly supports Syria; IRGC Al Quds Force plays key role in Islamic Awakening – Top advisor to the Supreme Leader on international affairs and Director General of the World Islamic Awakening Association, Ali Akbar Velayati, reiterated in the IR...GC cultural conference on the Islamic Awakening that Iran continues to support Syria.



In comments he made that were not fully published in the media, Velayati addressed the key role played by the IRGC Al Quds Force in promoting the Islamic Awakening (the Iranian term for the Arab Spring), stressing that “without the assistance of our Al Quds brothers, this would not be the case. Al Quds Force fighters, with their tremendous experience gained during the Iran-Iraq War and given their obedience to the Velayat e-Faqih (Guardian Jurist) and desire to sacrifice themselves, have become one of the most influential players in the Islamic Awakening.”

I am a citizen of the world who is, probably like you, anxious in regards to what would happen if/when Iran does get the bomb. I read and reread the IAEA reports over and over again and I have to say that I am quite convinced that Iran is forging the way to build a bomb.Time will tell if the IAEA and I are right…I certainly hope not. In the meantime, Iran keeps on claiming that nuclear weapons are a sin, that they will never develop nuclear weapons etc…On the other hand, they keep on threatening that they will take their program underground and that repercussions will be horrendous.(I found this site that has quite a few quotes:





I put together this infographic of all the violations by Iran according to the IAEA with links to the respective paragraphs in the IAEA reports at my blog – IRANandIAEA.wordpress.com. I do hope that I did not miss out on anything – if I did , please be kind enough to correct me and I can change the infographic. I also tried my hand at creating a small movie of the infographic – link. Would love your feedback and, if you do decide to publish this infographic, please be kind enough to inform me about it J. Hope this can be of help.

magomad, you need 15 post before you may post links.

Be sure to read the forum rules before you proceed. Welcome to SDF!!

[h=3]FORUM RULES: Things to Remember Before Posting, important, please read![/h]..and introduce yourself to the rest of the forum!

[h=3]New members introductions - New members Introduce yourselves[/h]
bd popeye super moderator

Thanks bd popey!

NikeX said:

For another view to the Iranian motivations for the development of nuclear weapons you only need to look at the words of Iran’s Supreme Cleric, Ayatollah Ali Khamene of the Iranian leadership and study what he and others have said in the past regarding jihad and the use of "nuclear fire" to establish an Islamic Caliphate.

This business about "US invasion" is just a cover story for the ideas of creating a world wide Caliphate

Click to expand...

they have not said anything of the sort

infact Iran has claimed all along that it is Irans right to have nuclear technology and for peaceful means, in addition if everyone else has them why not Iran

if North Korea can get so also Iran has that right too, u cant have one rule for one country and another rule for the other

magomad said:

Iran Daily Brief- Iran's Revolutionary Guards are part of the repression of dissiden info

Iran's Revolutionary Guards are part of the repression of dissidents in Syria

Supreme Leader’s Advisor on International Affairs: Iran strongly supports Syria; IRGC Al Quds Force plays key role in Islamic Awakening – Top advisor to the Supreme Leader on international affairs and Director General of the World Islamic Awakening Association, Ali Akbar Velayati, reiterated in the IR...GC cultural conference on the Islamic Awakening that Iran continues to support Syria.

In comments he made that were not fully published in the media, Velayati addressed the key role played by the IRGC Al Quds Force in promoting the Islamic Awakening (the Iranian term for the Arab Spring), stressing that “without the assistance of our Al Quds brothers, this would not be the case. Al Quds Force fighters, with their tremendous experience gained during the Iran-Iraq War and given their obedience to the Velayat e-Faqih (Guardian Jurist) and desire to sacrifice themselves, have become one of the most influential players in the Islamic Awakening.”

Click to expand...

if theres one thing Iranians cant do that is politics and negotiating, that something they have never learnt

considering all the educated Iranians there are none have been able to bring a peaceful solution to many of the problems Iran has faced

and that is a irony, because pre-Khommeni Iran was number 1 allies of US, u can say more than even Japan and Israel

Iran had on order 160 F16s in 1975 and increased the order to a staggering 300 F16s by 1978, this was even before F16 was inducted, infact the order for the F16s was so large that when revolution happened US did not know what to do with them, a great number of them went to Israel

there are even reports that Iran already got ground equipment for F16s in 1978, this ground equipment was then sold to Pakistan in 1983

90 Chinnoks were operated by Iran in 1979, with another 50 due to be added to that, to make a total of 140 Chinnoks!!!even today UK does not even operate half as much

Iran is the only country outside the US to operate the F14 Tomcats, bought to knock out the high flying Soviet Mig25s which routinely crossed Iranian airspace

during the Cold War any counter-attack on the Soviet Union was to be a joint US-Iranian attack, which later was turned into a US-Turkish one

makes you wonder where Iran would have been if the revolution never happened, they would have most certainly have been part of JSF

Iran can be a force for good in the region, they have a big complex country with a large population, i hope one day both Iran and the rest of the world can sit down and sort out thier differences, but that is maybe a bit of a long shot for now