Is the US shooting itself in the foot by banning Huawei?

Gatekeeper said:

I really think you need to read and learn about China before coming out with your assertions!

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That's why I am on these boards. Gives me some perspective on how its people think.

The more I learn, the more I understand why free speech and social media are so restricted in PRC. The CCP toppled one extractive system, only to replace it with another in different guise.

But PRC is reaching the limits of trade fueled growth. Given the recent trade frictions, that road is getting narrower and narrower. That's why they're trying to build a new one with OBOR. The jury is still out on that. I am afraid that to maintain economic growth they will have to transition towards a consumption economy. But that will require wealth transfers from the rich and successfull to the less privileged ones. Who is going to incentivize the elites to do that, when the same elites hold the political power?

Max Demian said:

From what I read in this thread, the good life seems to be the privilege of the 1% ( the nonlinear). The remainder are "treated like ants". That doesn't sound like such a great place to live in. If that's really the case, you might be headed for another proletarian revolution.

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that's a pretty weak understanding of the country. Having been to China and many countries in Europe, I can say that there are much more similarities than differences.

Max Demian said:

That's why I am on these boards. Gives me some perspective on how its people think.

The more I learn, the more I understand why free speech and social media are so restricted in PRC. The CCP toppled one extractive system, only to replace it with another in different guise.

But PRC is reaching the limits of trade fueled growth. Given the recent trade frictions, that road is getting narrower and narrower. That's why they're trying to build a new one with OBOR. The jury is still out on that. I am afraid that to maintain economic growth they will have to transition towards a consumption economy. But that will require wealth transfers from the rich and successfull to the less privileged ones. Who is going to incentivize the elites to do that, when the same elites hold the political power?

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actualy PRC has moved away from trade fueled growth a long time ago. Again it seems that your understanding of the country is more limited than even an average european, it does not take a lot of googling or wikipedia-ing to find out how much of China's economy is relying on cheap exports.

I suspect the leadership wants to not only have a strong consumption economy, but also maintain its manufacturing base through automation/AI. Soon human labor will no longer be "cheap."

drowingfish said:

actualy PRC has moved away from trade fueled growth a long time ago. Again it seems that your understanding of the country is more limited than even an average european, it does not take a lot of googling or wikipedia-ing to find out how much of China's economy is relying on cheap exports.

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You are right, it's more accurate to say the growth was and still is investment based. That's where the OBOR fits in, as the continuation of that policy. However, the ability to sustain such high rates of investments, without incurring massive amounts of debt, is underpinned by maintaining a large trade surplus. And trade wars could very well do substantial damage to that surplus.

Btw you guys should checkout comments on youtube about 5G. It's even worse than anti-vaxx.

@Max Demian I suggest you spend some time listening to Chinese telling their own stories, or better yet spend time in the country, instead of listening to what your government spoon feeds you.

If an economical war starts, oligarchs like Soros, Trump or Bush family won’t be the ones to bankrupt, it will be people like you, while they reap the profit in insider trading.

If a shooting war starts, war “hawks” like Bolton won’t be the ones to get shot at, it will be people like you, while they reap military honors and arms sales.

They’re telling these horrible lies about the place where I live, not because they are trying to fool me, because I can verify the truth every day I step out of my home. They’re telling the lies to YOU so that YOU will be ok with suffering so that they can try to wage war for profits on people like me.

Please don’t be an useful idiot and spread their words.

Max Demian said:

From what I read in this thread, the good life seems to be the privilege of the 1% ( the nonlinear). The remainder are "treated like ants". That doesn't sound like such a great place to live in. If that's really the case, you might be headed for another proletarian revolution.

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1%? Do you consider an ordinary high school chemistry teacher among the “privileged 1%”? How about a junior high school math teacher?

My mother-in-law is a retired high school chemistry teacher. And her pension allows her to live comfortably in the US by herself. My father-in-law is a retired engineer, not exactly a privileged type either. His own pension also allows him to live in the US without any help from any of us. They just bought a condo here in Houston with their own savings. They still have an apartment back in China. None of them is ever a CCP member and none of them has ever held any managerial position in their lives. Just ordinary worker bees. Their lives back in China would hardly be considered as “treated like ants”. They wanted to move to the US because their only child, my wife, lives in the US and they want to be closer to their only child.

One of my cousin is a junior high math teacher in her late 30’s. Her husband is a police officer. Again, not exactly the privileged type. They own an apartment and two cars (a Honda SUV and a Toyota sedan). Not exactly “treated like ants”.

You say that you get your impression of China from reading posts here. Many members here either spend a lot of time in China, or have families back in China. Very few of us would imply anything remotely close to anything like “the privileged 1%”, because that is NOT true at all.

To be absolutely honest, I have to admit that all our views are somewhat biased. I myself no longer have a lot of interactions with native Chinese anymore. But my wife still does. And all her friends, in early to mid 40’s, seem to be doing very well. Being mid-level managers and supervisors at various companies, most of them make western equivalent salaries. One of her best friends is a supervisor at a headhunting company in China. And according to her, most of her clients are offering western level salaries to their employees. So my own impression of China is a lot rosier. With that being said, If you truly want to get to know a little about China, I suggest that you fly there and spend a week. And walk around the neighborhoods and get a firsthand experience of how the Chinese ants live...

A lot of people in the West have not kept up with the times and have widely outdated data on Chinese salaries. Those who work in Beijing or Shanghai have salaries as high or higher than in the most expensive cities in the USA. What China also has, however, is widely disparate salaries and incomes between regions. That is also the case in, say, the USA, but China is way more asymmetric. Because, I think, capital still hasn't fully flowed and percolated across the country.

Still there have been huge investments into infrastructure in China. I think saying they survive on exports is reductive. These infrastructure investments have been made with Chinese savings. Not foreign capital. Also the Chinese central government controls the government budget to such a high degree so they can focus it on the investments they consider priorities on a national level to a degree the USA cannot. The Chinese keep increasing their levels of disposable income and this is displayed not only in consumer goods statistics but also in air travel and things like that.

Remember, the Chinese do not use SWIFT inside China, so I think the knowledge of the Chinese economy by Western spy agencies is severely limited. Let alone private investors or the general public. This opaqueness must be a really scary prospect for Western oligarchs. That's why they keep trying to force the Chinese economy to fit the Western capital model I think.

Max Demian said:

That's why I am on these boards. Gives me some perspective on how its people think.

The more I learn, the more I understand why free speech and social media are so restricted in PRC. The CCP toppled one extractive system, only to replace it with another in different guise.

But PRC is reaching the limits of trade fueled growth. Given the recent trade frictions, that road is getting narrower and narrower. That's why they're trying to build a new one with OBOR. The jury is still out on that. I am afraid that to maintain economic growth they will have to transition towards a consumption economy. But that will require wealth transfers from the rich and successfull to the less privileged ones. Who is going to incentivize the elites to do that, when the same elites hold the political power?

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Ok. Max.
I appreciate you want to learn. I'm more than ok with that. But in order to learn. one has to dump the baggage that came with their pre-existing view of China.
Many of these views are mot only out of date. But are some are very bias, and some are just propoganda!
Most Europeans pre-conceived view of China is one straight out of the Orwellian 1984 and animal farm. This I'm sure it's to do with the constant stream of anti-China/CCP propoganda pursued by the MSM.
Let me tell you about my own experiences. Back in the eighties at the height of the cold war. My wife and u decided to travel into eastern Europe by car!
We were warned by friends snd family not to do it as we might not be able to return! (Such was the histeria surrounding anything beyond the "iron curtain").
we ignored all advice and travelled to Hungary, and Yougoslavia.
Sure, at the borders, their were fences as far as the eye can see. Their were even machine gun turrets. The border guards were expressionless and looked mean! (We were thinking what have we got ourselves into)!
But once we got pass the borders, we were able yo travel anywhere we please. We were expecting the KGB or whoever to follow us and impead our progress!
But non of this happened. And the people we meet were just like you and me. All going about their business! So we learned alot during thar trip.
The point I tried to make (and I'm concerncise of the fact I'm going off topic.please bear with me). Is that you need to travel to China and experience China for yourself.
You can however, start off by going to our very own forum to see our very own BD popeye posting the every day life in China under the "china daily photos" .
You can see for yourself that people in China are all going about their daily life that's no different to you and me!
So please don't believe all those Orwellian views from the western MSM!