Is China the regional power?

SampanViking said:

Examples are pretty dificult to find, but here is a purely hypothetical situation given for Illustrative purposes only.

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That's not actually an appropriate comparison, because if it were one would have to assume that demanding the use of sovereign territory for military operations against a nearby power like China would be "ok". In reality merely making the threat may provoke a negative response (i.e. believing the US was bluffing).

If you wanted a comparison, the US and China vying for military bases and/or access to energy supplies in a single country (where only one could get what they wanted) would be a better scenario.

FuManChu said:

If you wanted a comparison, the US and China vying for military bases and/or access to energy supplies in a single country (where only one could get what they wanted) would be a better scenario.

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I think most countries don't cut their foreign relations in a black & white fashion today. Given a situation where 2 countries are compenting for influence over a 3rd country, the 3rd country would most likely play both sides to reap maximum benefits.

Look at PRC-ROC's struggle over foreign relations as an example. Although the 3rd country can only officially recongize one out of 2 as "China", it doesn't mean the "loser" isn't actively pouring investments and economic aid to win them over. The kind of friends you make in these transactions are fair-weather friends who'd jump ship whenever it suits them anyway.

Also, just because country A won and got the military base or energy contract, doesn't mean they'd stay. The international situation changes constantely. The US celebrated gaining a foothold in central Asia via Karshi-Khanabad AFB lease in Uzebekistan, but pulled out just 4 years later as Uzbek government signed Uzbek-Russian military alliance.

If current trends hold, by 2020 China's GDP will have surpassed Japan's at exchange rate. By 2040, China's GDP will have surpassed America's also at exchange rate. My friends, by the time the Chinese Communist Party celebrates its 100th anniversary of coming to power in 2049, China will have become the greatest overall power in the world. Of course, per capita income will still lag very much behind the post-industrial powers, but the average standard of living should be high enough to realize a "harmonious society." I don't want to get political here, but it will be real classy of the CCP to voluntarily turn over power to a democratic process in 2049, so that history will judge the communist party kindly -- future generations will look back and say, yes, the communists made many mistakes, but through it all, in the one hundred years they were in power, China became great again.

If trends held for years as you wished, everybody would become a millionaire by betting on stocks.

Kongo said:

If trends held for years as you wished, everybody would become a millionaire by betting on stocks.

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I guess you got burned when Japan's stocks crashed then. And then their economy had a recession to low growth profile for a decade and a half now, with obviously no potential of growing faster further.

Undead Yogurt said:

If current trends hold, by 2020 China's GDP will have surpassed Japan's at exchange rate. By 2040, China's GDP will have surpassed America's also at exchange rate. My friends, by the time the Chinese Communist Party celebrates its 100th anniversary of coming to power in 2049, China will have become the greatest overall power in the world. Of course, per capita income will still lag very much behind the post-industrial powers, but the average standard of living should be high enough to realize a "harmonious society." I don't want to get political here, but it will be real classy of the CCP to voluntarily turn over power to a democratic process in 2049, so that history will judge the communist party kindly -- future generations will look back and say, yes, the communists made many mistakes, but through it all, in the one hundred years they were in power, China became great again.

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China's GDP in exchange value is lower than it should be, since the currency is undervalued.

Hard to say where US GDP would be in 2020, I would think it would reach over 20 trillion. However, the value of the dollar isn't the same as it does now.

If you're not growing ahead of your inflation rate, your economy is actually shrinking.

When I look at GDP, the only number that really interests me is industrial GDP. Good actually manufactured or grown, along with supporting services. Somehow I don't really see money made by litigation or stock speculation as legitimate GDP, more like money changing hands.

The current threat to China's progress is ecological, pollution, the increasing size of the Gobi desert, availability of farmable land. It needs to manage energy, do energy conservation, find alternative sources, and most of all, don't ape the American car based society.

One keeps forgetting that the US is also a FOOD superpower. It is responsible for supplying a large amount of food to this planet. Anything happens to the Bread Basket, and this world, including China, is in serious trouble.

crobato said:

I guess you got burned when Japan's stocks crashed then. And then their economy had a recession to low growth profile for a decade and a half now, with obviously no potential of growing faster further.

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Sorry to disappoint, but i do not suffer same illusion as him. So i never got burnt by stock market.

I'd watch it if I was you!

I would have to say yes.

Based on the 3 requirements

Military, Economic and Politically.

I think it has been discussed enough in the forum.

Although I may add politically China has been trying to expand its influence in South East Asia as negotiations has and still going on with ASEAN countries in Security and Economic cooperation. Which sees China export more goods to SE Asia in return they will secure a source of raw material. Economic ties with Australia has strengthened and trade between Australia and China exceeds Australia and Japan.

In a regional sense, I think Chinas Economic and Political influence is at least currently at Par with Japan but still shifting. Given the choice of good relations with Japan or China at the current moment would be a very hard choice to make in the East Asia region. But I guess not for long IF China is able to maintain their growth without plunging into depression (ref to SE Asia Economic Crisis).

From the above comes the most important point, industrial power. Currently China produces more goods compared to any other country.

Lesson from History taught us, no matter how good your scientist is if you don't have enough man, tanks etc etc you will lose the war. (ref to Nazi Germany)

China has 1. Biggest population of the world 2. Biggest Industrial output of the world.

Better of #3 China has nuclear weapon.

We're actually capable of producing a lot more food, if we switch production from animal fodder to grains. But it'd mean less beef on your table.

There are many environmental problems that will cause eventual reduction in food production. Water shortage, soil erosion, declining petrol supplies (used for fertilizer), loss of farmland to urban sprawl, pollution, heavy metals, etc.

Unfortunately, as a manufacturing power house, China is stuck with these problems. Manufacturing consumes a lot of water and output pollution en mass. You could reduce the pollution output, but not get rid of it completely. The only way to truly reduce pollution is to shift manufacturing to someone else's backyard and let them deal with it.

I recall back in 1970s, Taiwan's rivers were so polluted that they were basically open sewers. Entire river was black in color. Taipei city had open sewers everywhere. Over the last 20-30 years they've done a good job cleaning up. Now the rivers and even some sewers can support fish (tilapia) population. But this is also because much of Taiwan's polluting manufacturing industry was moved to China/Vietnam/etc.

Consider the irony of a consumerism society. The government requires its citizens to have unlimited material wants (well above "needs") and buy lots of stuff to stimulate the economy and roll coins into tax collection. The more we consume, the stronger the economy -- at the cost of putting additional strains on the planet. But if we all decide to ditch consumer lifestyle and adopt a minimalist lifestyle to have least impact on the environment, the government would prolly go bankrupt.

In that perspective, a new & popular hippie potato-farmer movement would be more dangerous to the American government than Iraq. As long as American citizens continue to consume vast amount of resources to generate economic prosperity, the government can afford its $500 billion military and blow away Iraq 10 times over. But if majority of Americans decide to ditch their jobs and become potato farmers, it'd be the end of America as a world power.

It's a simplistic way to view things, but if you want a good indication on if China (or any other country) is a "power", one merely has to look at how much resources it consumes.

I have to admit adeptitus that your assumption about the consumption of natural resources to determine the global influence of a nation is quite convincing since the necessary capacity to acquire these resources inevitably reflects the comprehensive power of her.

Accordingly China is currently the number two power globally and regionally the number one but it will take another 10-15 years for closing in to the US decisively.

Unfourtunately trends have the ugly trait of going in unpredictable directions as the case of Japan has us instructively shown. Back in 1990-91 the japanese economy had reached a level of 62% of the US GDP (in current $) and every ´expert´ was predicting that by 2000 Japan would close in to 80% and would reach parity in 2010. Actually the japanese economy developed far weaker than predicted and in 06 is only 36% as big as America´s.

Of course China is not and will not develop like Japan but an inherent unpredictability is unavoidable in a highly complicated globalized world. Nevertheless this fact is also a truism for the US since America could also enter a slump like the ´lost decade´ of 1973-82 in the coming years and this would indeed turn the tables in favour of China more rapidly than everyone would think. So let all of us be catched by a big surprise!