Is China the regional power?

Jeff Head said:

I agree economically...but militarily I disagree. Clearly if you are talking about ground forces alone, China has the edge...but they have to get that ground power across oceans and keep it from being ravaged by air power. In this regard, in both those areas IMHO, Japan still has the edge.

China is coming of age in both areas though, and because of her massive potential in terms of production, which she is beginning to flex in the naval area now, she has every chance of overcoming those disadvantages over the next few years.

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Well put but I dont really think air power is too much of a problem. China's AA weapons are quite decent and Japan doesnt really have any stealth warplanes (at least not yet). The planes are just as vulnerable as the ships.

You guys a missing the point. China doesn't need to transport its army around the world, conduct precision strikes and replace indigenous governmental figures with pro-Chinese ones. That's a world superpower, and I think we can all agree on China not being a world superpower.

The point is if China is a regional power, and the answer is of course yes. China shares borders with a lot of smaller countries, and being the 'giant next door' it exerts a lot of influence. Kind of like how some say Canada is being influenced way too much by the US in every way. The geopolitical situation makes it impossible for US influence to not spread, and so is the case between China and the smaller countries.

Another point I'll make. China DOES NOT NEED a world-class navy and AF. Just look at the nations that China is bordering. Vietnam, India, Nepal, Pakistan, etc. So if there was another war with any of these countries, It'd be the army doing most of the action, and some air force if applicable. The PLA is the world's biggest, may I remind you all, and can roll over many other small countries bordering China.

In conclusion, yes, China is a regional power military-wise, and does not need a very capable AF and navy to be in that position.

Regarding Japan's military power, we have to look at its current-force vs. potential capability.

The current JSDF has self-imposed restrictions on offensive capability. For example the JMSDF ships don't carry Tomahawk LACM's, and the JASDF doesn't deploy laser-guided bombs and long-range air-to-surface missiles. The Japanese navy leans heavily toward home defensive role (ASW) and has limited power projection capability.

But if we're talking about Japan's military potential, I think if they really wanted to, they can build nuclear weapons and MRBM's within 12 months. Japan is a relatively wealthy and technically advanced country, they can afford offensive precision arms if needed.

However, at the same time, Japan's traditional lead in technology & development in the East Asia region is also slipping. The Koreans are catching up and the Chinese are right behind them. Korean companies today are toe-to-toe with Japanese companies in consumer electronics.

I think there are many factors that will lead to Japan's eventual decline from its lead position, both internal and external. From the outside, we have powerful competitors. From the inside, we have demographic and cultural shift - decline in marriage, child-bearing, fully employed workforce, and rise in parasaito shinguru and freeter culture.

Since this is a military forum, I'll just cover some of these items briefly. Today Japan has one of the world's worse elderly (age 60+) to young (age 15 and under) ratios. Its birth and marriage rates are declining, 60% of single females in late 20's are unmarried. The sterotype salaryman and lifetime employment are eroding, and the younger generation prefer not to work as hard. All these things will gradually erode Japan's lead, while harder-working folk will advance.

I would say that one of China's main sources of influence is the fact that it is percieved as "rising", making other nations think that not only is China a good ally/partner now, but a better one in the future. However, China does not have the military dominance in the reigon it needs to truly be a "reigonal power", although I am certain that China will in coming decades have a powerful enough military to ensure an eventual reunification of Taiwan (let's not get into US intervention here), ensure access to energy supplies and the Indian Ocean, and thouroughly defend China's reigonal seas. Right now the US can still deny all of those things to China. Economically and politically, the US has very strong ties to South Korea and Japan and Taiwan's political exsistance adds the finishing blow, as it were, to put the US as firmly reigonally dominant over China. However, that is changing. Taiwan may not be independent for long, and South Korea is drifting towards China. :china: :china:

Guys, I think some of you are misinterpreting what the original poster meant. He did not ask "is China a regional power", the question was "is China the regional power", as in the dominant nation.

Sorry, I disagree. What actual "control" does China have over any of these nations?

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Economically it should be obvious. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and North Korea all have a great amount of dependence on China, moreso than China has on any one of them. In the case of Taiwan and North Korea this is essentially complete control.

They have economic influence and a growing military influence...but Japan in particular can counter their Naval and Air Force with its own quite capably, and when you add Japan's principle ally, the US, it is clear that there is no "control".

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I'm sorry, but no. Japan's military is small and incapable of long-reaching conflict. Our military is incredibly distant from East Asia, while China's is naturally nearby.

Same economically. All of these nations are tied to the west, particularly the United States, as is China, in a huge way economically. China does not control that side of the equation. They are a part of it, but they do not control it.

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Funny, I must be imagining our billion dollar trade deficit, the massive stockpiles of American dollars, and reliance on cheap products from China.

When you add the total economic might of the US, Japan, and South Korea, the heavier influence over regional issues is clearly still on the side of these allies IMHO as opposed to China.

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South Korea and Japan rely more on China than the U.S.

1) US
2) Japan
3) China

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Japan was only a regional power in its imperial times. It is no way a regional power. Japan has no political control over China, South Korea, North Korea, or Taiwan. Japan has no economic contrl over any of them either. Military, contrlol is a given no.

Funny, I must be imagining our billion dollar trade deficit, the massive stockpiles of American dollars, and reliance on cheap products from China.

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The mainland Chinese economy is greatly dependant on foreign trade (exports) and investments. Investment and export sectors collectively account for about 80% of mainland Chinese GDP and are still growing at close to a 30% annual rate. This is an unsustainable outcome for mainland China. Further sharp increases in investment are a recipe for capacity overhangs and deflation. Continued sharp gains in exports are a recipe for trade frictions and possibly even protectionism

Mainland China's overall trade surplus has increased dramatically in recent years creating an imbalance in the world economy. For example, mainland China keeps a trade surplus of US$200 billion with the United States. However, products that are labelled Made in China are not necessarily developed or designed in mainland China. In fact, 60% of mainland Chinese goods that are exported come from overseas-invested factories, according to PRC customs data. Mainland China has become a focal point for assemblies, where final products are assembled and/or tested, but not manufactured there. The main components are still imported from other countries. Thus, despite mainland China's huge trade surplus with the West, it has a trade deficit of US$137 billion with Asian countries

The US economy:
The U.S. has the world's largest national economy with over $12 trillion.

It has nearly 30% of the global market exchange-rate GDP.

It is characterized by moderate to high economic growth.
U.S. has a per-capita GDP much greater than any emerging superpower and higher than that of most industrialized countries, at USD $41,800.

The U.S. has the third largest per-capita GDP in the world, following Luxemburg and Norway.

The average American does, however, spend considerably more of his or her life working than does the average European.(see the controversies about GDP).

The U.S. is headquarters for many global corporations and financial institutions.

American companies are leading players in in many fields, such as new materials, electronics and telecommunications, information technology, aerospace, energy, nanotechnology, biotechnology, medicine, bioinformatics, chemical engineering, and software.

The country is a key agricultural and commodities producer, although it is dependent on petroleum imports.

It has a decisive influence on international financial bodies, such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank; the American dollar is the most important reserve and convertible currency in the world.

Economically it should be obvious. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and North Korea all have a great amount of dependence on China, moreso than China has on any one of them. In the case of Taiwan and North Korea this is essentially complete control.

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It is the other way around, it is the Foreign Direct Investments of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan that is fueling the Chinese Economy. Without their investments, the Chinese Economy will slow down.

Also, despite China's impressive economic development during the past two decades, reforming the state enterprise sector and modernizing the banking system remain major hurdles. Over half of mainland China's large state-owned enterprises are inefficient and reporting losses.

Thank you FuManChu for reminding us of the question.

So who is THE Regional Power? By that you can only mean who is best able to enforce their will on the other nations in the region.

Well that is not an easy question to answer, but I am sure that the main part of the answer is "Its the Economy Stupid" just as most things ususally are.

China is a continental power in a way few countries are or can be, even the USA has to be viewed as a Maritime Power as the majority of its Borders are SeaBoard or Canada. I wonder how many here really are aware of or appreciate the nature and scale of the Infrastuctural Links that tie China to its Continental Neighbours, - The Massive Freeways, Railway Lines and Pipelines that now stretch deep into South East Asia and as far West as the Caspian Sea and Iran.

The movement of goods and Raw Materials between China and its neighbours (excluding India) are huge and represent the single largest and fastest growing sector for Income in all of these countries.

In terms of Enforcing Political will, there are few arenas in which this can be tested. It is however worth noting that Taiwan is now rolling back from dreams of Independance and coming to grips with active engagement with China instead, whilst DPRKS dear Mr Kim has issued an apology to President Hu but only issued threats to the USA.



I am afraid Idont that I have to shatter your illusion as to the present state of the Chinese Economy. As the Economist has recently highlighted, the main driver of economic growth in China and the Far East generally is now Internal Consumption. Sino-US trade contributed 2% of China'a annual GDP growth in 2005, which means that even without growth from the US, that China's growth would have been 8.5% in 2005.

By all accounts we are about to see just how much Global clout the US economy still has. The US is now widely recognised to be in a slowdown, with all the signs of a Property Bust imminent. If the US is still THE Regional Power than its slowdown will have adramtic effect on the Chinese Economy. If it is not then Chinese growth will continue at or about double digits.

No point telling me I am right or wrong, time will provide than answer for us soon enough

Sorry for the double posting, but I had finished my first before I relaised Idont had posted his.

IDonT

Thus, despite mainland China's huge trade surplus with the West, it has a trade deficit of US$137 billion with Asian countries

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In other words they have a massive trade surplus overall. You have to consider the kind of money people are getting from those goods China buys. China can buy from many different sources, there are lost of options. However, these countries will have a harder time finding someone else to sell to that will give them that kind of business.

the American dollar is the most important reserve and convertible currency in the world.

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Good for China that they have nearly a trillion of them in reserve.

It is the other way around, it is the Foreign Direct Investments of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan that is fueling the Chinese Economy. Without their investments, the Chinese Economy will slow down.

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That's wrong. China isn't being fueled by Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan. They just wanted to get a piece of the Chinese pie. Their economy was growing from internal factors, they opened to investment to speed up growth. If anything a cutting of FDI would be great for them, it would help their economy cool off and encourage self-sufficiency in a lot of industries they're currently behind in. On the other hand, a slowdown in China means a recession in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. They lose their biggest customer and shopping point.

Also, China's control goes well beyond economic.

On the other hand, a slowdown in China means a recession in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. They lose their biggest customer and shopping point.

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A slowdown in the chinese economic will not only effect Japan, SK and Taiwan but creat a recession for the whole world.

I agree economically...but militarily I disagree. Clearly if you are talking about ground forces alone, China has the edge...but they have to get that ground power across oceans and keep it from being ravaged by air power. In this regard, in both those areas IMHO, Japan still has the edge.

China is coming of age in both areas though, and because of her massive potential in terms of production, which she is beginning to flex in the naval area now, she has every chance of overcoming those disadvantages over the next few years.

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Well If you put it this way then they are both not regioal power since they dun have edge over each other. It fair to said if you leave US out of the equation there is no way in hell Japan can attack China Vrs China attack Japan. In current condition there is not alot the US can do since it had it hand tie down in Iraq and ahfga