Is China the regional power?

Nethappy said:

It fair to said if you leave US out of the equation there is no way in hell Japan can attack China Vrs China attack Japan. In current condition there is not alot the US can do since it had it hand tie down in Iraq and ahfga

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Why are you talking about Japan attacking China? If either attacked the other for a ground invasion it would be suicide. You have to consider the implications of a more likely clash, say a naval and/air conflict - ground forces would be very unlikely to come into the matter.

Nethappy said:

Well If you put it this way then they are both not regioal power since they dun have edge over each other. It fair to said if you leave US out of the equation there is no way in hell Japan can attack China Vrs China attack Japan. In current condition there is not alot the US can do since it had it hand tie down in Iraq and ahfga

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Again, I disagree. I believe both are regional powers and that many of their political and even strategic interests are divergent and potentially at odds.

A ground war for either country would require first that they be able to get their ground force to the others shores and support them their, both militarily in terms of naval and air coverage, and logistically. Right now, I do not believe either can do that.

But their other interests, particuularly natural resources and particularly energy, are dependent on being able to keep sea lanes open and defend them. At this time, I believe Japan is more capable in that area. ...and right now, it is impossible to leave the US out of that equation. It supports Japan and Japan supports the US...and the US is definitely not too tied down in the Mid East to react overwhelmingly on the high seas.

Again, as I have said all along, the PRC is working very hard and very fast at balancing these equations...and they are developing the manufacturing and production capabilities, along with the wealth to do so. So, in time, the equation is apt to change...but it has not, as of this date, risen to the level of being able to counter what I just spoke of by a long shot.

FuManChu said:

Why are you talking about Japan attacking China? If either attacked the other for a ground invasion it would be suicide. You have to consider the implications of a more likely clash, say a naval and/air conflict - ground forces would be very unlikely to come into the matter.

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The only way I can think of ground forces getting involved is a Chinese attack on the Ryukyu Islands. This, however, would certainly bring American involvement if the US was not already involved. So you are right Fu Manchu.

Both navies would be straining to their limit in a situation like this.

As for who is THE reigional power, if that question includes only nations in the reigon, I would say China by far. However, it is really impossible to not include the US.

As for who is THE reigional power, if that question includes only nations in the reigon, I would say China by far.

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Well, the Japanese economy, when measured in terms of GDP is over twice as large as the Chinese economy. Furthermore, although overall inferior millitarily, the Japanese have greater force projection than the Chinese due to their more advanced navy and longer range fighters.

FriedRiceNSpice said:

Furthermore, although overall inferior millitarily, the Japanese have greater force projection than the Chinese due to their more advanced navy and longer range fighters.

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Excellent commnet, and I would argue that because of those two things you mention, that the Japanese military is not inferior, just smaller. Now, the PRC recognizes those things too and is very busy addressing both issues, so that condition may not hold over the next several years...but it does now. As I have said, for me, it's the US, followed by Japan, and then China. Realistically I do not think you can exclude the US, but if you just cosider local nations, it's Japan and then China from my perspective.

I don't think the US would withdraw from Japan, unless if something catastrophic happens in the US. Although I do see more re-deployements between Japan and Okinawa/Ryūkyū in the future.

The Japanese policy on Ryūkyū has been "out of sight, out of mind" where they dump (with US in collusion) the bulk of US forces there, along with all the problems associated with foreign military bases. Investment in Ryūkyū was discouraged and required "special permission" to prevent Ryūkyū from becoming self-sufficient, and to make them rely on US military for local economy as long as possible. From Tokyo's point of view, Okinawans aren't real Japanese, they're just Japanese subjects.

But those times are coming to an end, as the local economy has slowly risen above "dependency" level, and successive Okinawan governments have pushed Tokyo to reduce/redeploy US troops and increased local autonomy. The Okinawans aren't asking for independence, but they do want to turn their home into Japan's Hong Kong, and relive the glory days from 15th-19th century where Okinawa was a major center of trade.

I foresee Okinawans gaining "special self-governing" status like that of Jeju-do island of S. Korea within our lifetime, with gradual withdraw/re-deployment of US forces from the islands. The self-governing island(s) will provide Visa-free visits to tourists & buisnessmen and have its own (limited) immigration & customs department. This will not happen tomorrow, but I think it will occur before 2050.

By then if the US forces are still deployed in North-East Asia, it'd prolly be a smaller force. But with advances in technology, you'll be able to do a lot more with less. More system automation means fewer hands needed. So the future US 7th fleet might not have as many in headcount, but will be more capable in firepower than the current 7th fleet. I suspect the largest US military base in the area by then will be Guam.

In focusing on GDP and relative military strength, you overlook "soft power", which I think makes China the dominant regional power.

The countries in the region are, for historical reasons, far more suspicious of Japan than of China. This means that even South Korea (with its dependence on the U.S. military) is more comfortable with China than with Japan, and would likely side with China in the event of a dispute.

Economically, China's economy is far more open than Japan's, and is growing much more quickly. This means that access to China's market is more important than access to Japan's market. Huge numbers of South Korean business people live in China, for example, running branch plants and doing other business. A huge trade surplus also means that China has a huge appetite for raw materials and tons of cash to invest in its neighbours.

Finally, Japan still has a constitution that keeps its military at home. That may
change soon, but for now it's still the reality.

China has also put a lot of diplomatic energy into its relations with its neighbours. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is an example of this.

Put these together and you can see that China has a lot of influence over its Asian neighbours. Japan, on the other hand, is geographically in Asia, but has had its mind elsewhere for decades. It has focused on the West and the U.S. in particular, at the expense of influence in its own back yard.

AmiGanguli said:

The countries in the region are, for historical reasons, far more suspicious of Japan than of China. This means that even South Korea (with its dependence on the U.S. military) is more comfortable with China than with Japan, and would likely side with China in the event of a dispute.

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I don't think South Korea would side against Japan at all. It would only get involved directly if it had a claim as well - otherwise it would watch from the side-lines (and maybe cheer for one). The recent "alliance" between China and South Korea that some people comment upon is more a result of mutual feelings about history, something the opposition GNP (almost certain to retake control of the Presidency next year) doesn't care nearly as much about.

Economically, China's economy is far more open than Japan's

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According to what statistics?

On the , Japan (ranked 7th) is way ahead of China (ranked 54th). If you look at the , Japan is 27th, while China is 111th.

So I have no idea how you reached that conclusion.

Huge numbers of South Korean business people live in China, for example, running branch plants and doing other business.

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There are over 600,000 Zainichi Koreans in Japan, more than any other non-Japanese group - I'm not sure what your point is. If you're alleging there are more Koreans in China than Japan, maybe it's the other way around - maybe the Koreans have influence over China.

China has also put a lot of diplomatic energy into its relations with its neighbours. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is an example of this.

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I don't really think much of the SCO. Besides Japan has recently stepped up its diplomatic links as well to Central Asia - it bagged a very nice uranium deal, which will help fuel its nuclear power stations.

Put these together and you can see that China has a lot of influence over its Asian neighbours. Japan, on the other hand, is geographically in Asia, but has had its mind elsewhere for decades. It has focused on the West and the U.S. in particular, at the expense of influence in its own back yard.

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That's not quite true - Japan has been developing ties with Asian states for ages. There's a lot of loans and aid that have been handed out over the years, far more than any other Asian state has offered. Diplomacy was low key, but that is being stepped up now.

AmiGanguli is quite right to say that the a countries Regional Power is the sum of its Military, Political and Economic Influence.

The measure is in large part the way the other countries in the Region would line up in the event of a major power crisis.

Examples are pretty dificult to find, but here is a purely hypothetical situation given for Illustrative purposes only.

Let us assume that a major US vs PRC crisis has emerged. Let us assume that the US approaches the Govts. of Thailand and Laos and ultimately says "We want to use your Territory and Airspace to launch attacks on the PRC, if you do not help us we will bomb you back to the Stone Age!

China responds by saying "if you allow US forces to land and move in your territory, we will never forgive you, we will Invade and you will be forever after, Provinces of the PRC"

The result would be the clearest Indication of the who the Regional Power is. Obviously I do not know what the result would be, nor fortunately does anybody else, so please spare us all from being told, thank you

SampanViking said:

AmiGanguli is quite right to say that the a countries Regional Power is the sum of its Military, Political and Economic Influence.

The measure is in large part the way the other countries in the Region would line up in the event of a major power crisis.

Examples are pretty dificult to find, but here is a purely hypothetical situation given for Illustrative purposes only.

Let us assume that a major US vs PRC crisis has emerged. Let us assume that the US approaches the Govts. of Thailand and Laos and ultimately says "We want to use your Territory and Airspace to launch attacks on the PRC, if you do not help us we will bomb you back to the Stone Age!

China responds by saying "if you allow US forces to land and move in your territory, we will never forgive you, we will Invade and you will be forever after, Provinces of the PRC"

The result would be the clearest Indication of the who the Regional Power is. Obviously I do not know what the result would be, nor fortunately does anybody else, so please spare us all from being told, thank you

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You're right Sampan. That's why I placed the US as the reigional power right now but gave China a very good chance of replacing it relatively soon. The US has far more military power than China, whereas the economic race is almost too close to call but I would give it to China, and the US has more political influence because of its alliances with South Korea, Taiwan and Japan. As you said, the total power is the sum of those three things. So the US is ahead 2-1. However, China's economic power will continue to grow. This will give it a clear lead in the economic category. As economic power grows, political and military power grow with it and I can see Taiwan reunifying and South Korea drifting into the Chinese orbit. That would probably throw the political balance in China's favor too. So, several decades from now, the count will probably be 2-1 in China's favor.

A skilled Chinese leader will speed up this process by encouraging nations to hedge their bet and support China rather than the US in their various disputes by emphasizing China's probable future reigional dominance and the rewards it will entail for those who support China now.

This is, of course, a very simplified view of things, but it helps to show the essence of what qualifies a nation to be considered the dominant reigional power.