Is a Major East Coast War in China's Interest?

FuManChu said:

What small states are going to kick off against China? China's rivals are large, powerful nations, not small ones which it could realistically stand a chance against.

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The same could be said to Manuel Noriega, who had 0% chance of defeating the US.

Given time, opportunity (or excuse for a quick "police action") will pop-up. For example if there was another anti-Chinese riot in Indonesia in 2020, it'd be an excuse for PLAN deployement. Add in a couple of hard-headed Indonesian generals to declare they'd sink all Chinese ships in its territorial waters, and you have your little shooting war.

Sea Dog said:

No. I'm not addressing the views to current US foreign policy and people's views of them. I'm addressing the assertion that:
This implies that China is building up military capabilities for the purposes of conquering people and areas of the Pacific. This implies China is a belligerent state.

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My view is that IF and when the PRC's economic/military power becomes the dominate force in East Asia, most of its smaller neighbors will eventually go through a gradual process of findlandization (apologies to anyone from Finland here!). Anyone who pokes their head up in opposition end up either being isolated or taken out via quick "police action" (see: Panama).

Using force to make your neighbors submit is usually a loser's way of winning, and should be used sparingly or as last resort, and preferably against a small weak opponent that you're sure to win (this isn't WW3). Losers force people to do things their way, vs. winners attract others to your side to fulfill their own selfish needs. Dissidents don't always need to be crushed, they can be shunned until they figure out that they're better off kissing your butt (see: Qaddafi).

Its quite possible that Vietnam, Korea, and some Central Asian countries and other nations in China's vicinity could become China's Carribean when China reaches superpower status. Much as the US constantly intervenes in the Carribean to maintain friendly reigemes, control the political climate and prevent waves of refuges from hitting its shores. I could see China sending troops into Tajikistan every now and then. Of course, the problem is that all around China's periphery are major powers (India, Russia, Japan, US) and they would oppose this. But it is a definate possibility that China will carve out a definate sphere of influence and be able to as it likes in side of it.

adeptitus said:

The same could be said to Manuel Noriega, who had 0% chance of defeating the US.

Given time, opportunity (or excuse for a quick "police action") will pop-up. For example if there was another anti-Chinese riot in Indonesia in 2020, it'd be an excuse for PLAN deployement. Add in a couple of hard-headed Indonesian generals to declare they'd sink all Chinese ships in its territorial waters, and you have your little shooting war.

My view is that IF and when the PRC's economic/military power becomes the dominate force in East Asia, most of its smaller neighbors will eventually go through a gradual process of findlandization (apologies to anyone from Finland here!). Anyone who pokes their head up in opposition end up either being isolated or taken out via quick "police action" (see: Panama).

Using force to make your neighbors submit is usually a loser's way of winning, and should be used sparingly or as last resort, and preferably against a small weak opponent that you're sure to win (this isn't WW3). Losers force people to do things their way, vs. winners attract others to your side to fulfill their own selfish needs. Dissidents don't always need to be crushed, they can be shunned until they figure out that they're better off kissing your butt (see: Qaddafi).

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I don't think it's going to be quite that simple.

It will depend upon whether or not Australia accepts it's role as a minor
power.

Australia will have a key role in South East Asia

FreeAsia2000 said:

I don't think it's going to be quite that simple.
It will depend upon whether or not Australia accepts it's role as a minor
power.
Australia will have a key role in South East Asia

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Technically, Australia is not part of "East Asia" and will not fall under PRC sphere of influence. Australia is in an enviable position of owning large land mass, high per-capita income, and important natural deposits such as copper, gold, diamonds, and uranium. 40% of the world's proven uranium reserves are in Australia.

As the world's easily-recoverable petro reserves decline, we'd become more dependent on other alternatives. The PRC has her eyes on nuclear power, and has signed agreemetns to import 20,000 tonnes of uranium from Australia annually beginning 2010. The PRC is also reported to be planning to build 50-60 new reactors over the next 20 years:


Since Australia will be a major source of "energy" material for the PRC, and the fact that Australia sits all the way south of Indonesia, I don't see any reason for PRC to want to piss them off.

Currently the largest energy consumer in the world is the United States, and environmental laws in the US has made it near impossible to construct additional nuclear power plants. In other words the contest for uranium fuel is not as tight as petro. It's also estimated that existing, recoverable and proven uranium reserves can provide the world's energy needs for the rest of this century. I think it'd be in PRC's best interest to be as friendly to the Aussies as possible.

Guy can some one please tell me why would China start a war for any reason in the frist place?

Even ten year on no matter how much China has advanced it would still be economiclly suicide. China would keep being the world economic engine for quite a while and export would still be the base of economcal growth for at lease another 20 years. So if China start any war without being attack frist would sure harm foreign investment meaning economical suicide.

There is only 3 potential issue which china could end up in a war.
Japan - Over oil or Japan deciede to attack NK.
Tawian - Declaring independent.
USA - Decide to attack NK without UN approval.

Guy can some one please tell me why would China start a war for any reason in the frist place?

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Its hardly an unfair question:roll:

Sure I dont think it is anything that the PRC would go looking for, but, just as you state at the end of your post, if conflict seemed unavoidable, I was conjecturing what kind of benefits they could extract from the situation.

I am sure Nethappy, that you would concede, that the ability to transfer a large part of their Private Sector into the Interior would be something the CCP would be happy to achieve. As a Govt, the CCP would be negligent if their strategists were not examining all the parameters and options (benefits and liabilities) of any potential situation that they might find themselves in.

I am sure Nethappy, that you would concede, that the ability to transfer a large part of their Private Sector into the Interior would be something the CCP would be happy to achieve. As a Govt, the CCP would be negligent if their strategists were not examining all the parameters and options (benefits and liabilities) of any potential situation that they might find themselves

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Yes the CCP is trying to transfer a large part of their Private Sector into the Interior and true it's in their best interest to do so. However how long would it take to transfer a large part of their Priivate Sector into the Interior and how much can it Move. If you put the size of their economic, it distribution of wealth and it reliance on export for economic growth into your calculation.

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I think the CCP has the ability to effect very large movements and do it very efficiently.

Dont forget, as other posters have pointed out, most of the targets in such a war would be the key infrastructual elements: Power and Transport, Communications etc in the Coastal Zone.

This would make operation for most of the Private facilites immpossible anyway.

The move would not be artifical, thes eproduction facilities would be needed for material for the War Effort. We all know that the redployment of production facilites to the Interior/Hinterland is a well established communist ethos that dates back to Stalin in WW2. In such a position the Infrastructure would be largely intact and any lack quickly provided courtesy of spending the Foreign Currency Reserves, which may not retain a savings value for that much longer.

So ther you have it. China probably has the ability to effect a mass transfer of its Private Industrial Base, it has a legitimate war effort rationale for wanting to do so and they would probably make it very difficult for these companies to return afterwards even if they wanted to.

Is getting the Interior developed worth starting an unneccesary war? No: But it would; in my opinion, be a major War Aim if conflict became inevitable.

I happen to read some article in some magazines about german cities partnerships with chinese cities. And there is a point i found quite interesting.

One of these partnercitiy mentioned was Chongqing (chin. 重庆/重慶 , it lies between two rivers Jangtse and Jialing. Hubei,Hunan, Guizhou, Sichuan are the next provinces it lies quite interior and is the headquarter to improve the industries in the inner china provinces. I think the CP don`t have to move actually much indutires if really a war is on a brink to destroy the coastal industries, because a lo industries are now developing near Chongqing.

Oh i forgot to write that Chongqing is the biggest city with over 31 mio citizen

Yes many of the Interior 2nd Tier cities are starting to develop and new cities are appearing every month.

But the numbers are still a drop in the ocean compared to the hundreds of millions still on the coast.

BTW Chongqing is a Municipality rather than a City, only a mere 16 Million live inside the City Limits, the rest live in the surrounding counties.