Is a Major East Coast War in China's Interest?

adeptitus said:

But times have changed. With the kind of precision-strike and stand-off weapons today, the USAF can destroy all major infrastructure targets in Iraq or Serbia within days.

In a hypothetical situation where the USAF/USN was to strike PRC's coastal provinces, they'd prolly go from area to area like a grid-like fashion, destroying important targets like power stations, bridges, oil refineries, ports, telecom exchange, etc. It'd prolly take a couple of weeks to go from top to bottom.

I doubt anyone is stupid enough to attempt a land-war in China, so the objective would be to simply destroy enough infrastructure in its most valuable coastal provicnes to damage the PRC economically. It's impossible to destroy every target of value across China by air because there's just simply too many of them. So the best you can do is to bomb enough to take China out of the game and set its development back a decade or two, then enforce economic sanctions and blocade to hamper its effots to rebuild. It'd be a very costly war for US/Japan, but countries like India, Vietnam, and those in South America would jump for joy as they replace China in the manufacturing sector.

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adeptitus

In order to start a campaign of bombing you're going to have to get rid of
Chinese air-defenses and airpower so I really do not see the comparison with
Iraq and even less so with Serbia making any sort of sense whatsoever.

It's going to take a whole lot more than a few days remember WW1 and
'it'll all be over by christmas' ?

FreeAsia2000 said:

adeptitus
In order to start a campaign of bombing you're going to have to get rid of
Chinese air-defenses and airpower so I really do not see the comparison with
Iraq and even less so with Serbia making any sort of sense whatsoever.
It's going to take a whole lot more than a few days remember WW1 and
'it'll all be over by christmas' ?

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IMO, the PLA today doesn't have the capability to defeat the USAF/USN in air to air combat, defend against saturated long-range cruise missile attacks, or effectively intercept modern stealth aircraft.

A single B-1 bomber can carry 2 dozen AGM-158B's and launch them at distance up to 925 km away. Each missile has estimated CEP of 2.4 meters and carries a 450 kg WDU-42B penetrator warhead. One hit will take out most bridges, power plants, water treatment centers, train stations, telecom exchanges, communication towers, dams, or cargo ship parked in port. The US has a huge arsenal, even if the PLA/PLAAF got lucky and take out a carrier, well, there's still a dozen more, plus thouands of modern combat aircraft in reserve.

If I were to put on the devil's advocate hat and play role of "attacker', I wouldn't even bother attempting to defeat the PLA on ground or try to hit all military/strategtic targets inland. I'd have very limited goals of destroying critical infrastructure in the coastal areas, including all major port facilities and ships I can find. I have no doubt that the PRC can rebuild/repair all damages within a decade, but my strategtic goal is just that - to set the PRC's commercial/economic development back a decade, and hope I (whatever side I'm playing) can leapfrog the PRC by wide gap (in economic and military development) during that time.

Going to war against a nuclear power is dangerous. If you push it too far and threaten the leadership's very survival, they might just opt for a nuclear exchange. So the strategy is to pull the other guy's pants down, and have him think that he can still pull his pants UP and start running again. To "win", you only have to keep him behind you. Your enemy will be pissed off at you for couple of decades, but in time you might find them on your side as a strategtic ally (the enemy of my enemy is my friend).

I won't say much here, other than the fact that China's east coast being attacked would be seriously bad. Sampan did say a "major" war, so you would have to assume the scale of the attack would be very great.

It isn't just physical damage we would be talking about. There'd be damage to investor confidence (foreign capital would be withdrawn and companies pull out), stock market problems, etc. Besides, given the East coast of China is key to the economy, if that was seriously hit then it would make it very difficult to redevelop, let alone get the central and western areas going at the same time.

To be quite honest, the chances of a major conflict affecting the Chinese coast would be highly unlikely. But if it did happen, it would be a disaster for China, with knock-on effects for the rest of the world.

A major war, maybe about 10 years from now, could definitely be in China's interest. By that point, China will have transformed into a much more technologically advanced society. It can take advantage of major changes in international affairs to cripple nearby hostile nations, assemble an alliance of asian nations, and take all the key strategic islands up to the second island chain. Then there will be only the blue water beyond. It might even be able to take the war to the middle of the Pacific.

But of course China will show restraint for now, until the strategic environment (shi) is in its favor.

Roger604 said:

A major war, maybe about 10 years from now, could definitely be in China's interest.

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I disagree completely. A major war would not be in China's interest at all.

You seem to be implying that in a decade China would be able to attack all of its neighbouring rivals and get away with it. There aren't any "enemy nations" around China, so China would have to be the aggressor if it wanted to do as you said. China would not get direct military backing from any major players if it did that. Plus China in ten years is not going to advanced enough to take on anyone and everyone, especially if it was facing off against a coalition, rather than enjoying the support of one.

If on the off-chance that other countries were to get involved militarily alongside China, other countries would then probably kick off against it as well, so as not to get picked off later. It would be fastest way to World War III.

But of course China will show restraint for now, until the strategic environment (shi) is in its favor.

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So you're saying that China will attack all its rivals when it thinks it has the advantage? I'm glad you're not on the Politburo!

Roger604 said:

A major war, maybe about 10 years from now, could definitely be in China's interest. By that point, China will have transformed into a much more technologically advanced society. It can take advantage of major changes in international affairs to cripple nearby hostile nations, assemble an alliance of asian nations, and take all the key strategic islands up to the second island chain. Then there will be only the blue water beyond. It might even be able to take the war to the middle of the Pacific.

But of course China will show restraint for now, until the strategic environment (shi) is in its favor.

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A major war? In somebody's interest?!?! How so? The USA, Japan, and others in the region are all advancing technologically also. And the USA and Japan are developing advanced military applications now that goes beyond the scope of what they have now. This is a pipedream. Ain't gonna happen. And no, I agree with the others. China would not be served at all by starting a war on it's East Coast now, or in the foreseeable future. It would be utterly devastating not only militarily to China, but economically as well.

Are you implying that China is a hostile nation? Waiting for an opportunity to destroy and pillage and conquer?

I never said that China should start the war. I only said that it could be in China's interest if a major war took place on its periphery around 10 years from now.

Sea Dog said:

A major war? In somebody's interest?!?! How so? The USA, Japan, and others in the region are all advancing technologically also. And the USA and Japan are developing advanced military applications now that goes beyond the scope of what they have now. This is a pipedream. Ain't gonna happen. And no, I agree with the others. China would not be served at all by starting a war on it's East Coast now, or in the foreseeable future. It would be utterly devastating not only militarily to China, but economically as well.

Are you implying that China is a hostile nation? Waiting for an opportunity to destroy and pillage and conquer?

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1) It wouldn't be a war, it'd be a "police action".

2) You fight winnable wars, which means picking on small/weak states (US->Iraq). And if the natives prove too tough, you cut your losses and bail.

Roger604 said:

I never said that China should start the war. I only said that it could be in China's interest if a major war took place on its periphery around 10 years from now.

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Why would that enable China to get involved? No one's going to attack it, and I don't see how is going to have a punch-up over the next decade. Besides if China did try to use it to give one of those countries a good kicking, chances are it would bring other people in as well. Don't you remember how World War I started?

adeptitus said:

You fight winnable wars, which means picking on small/weak states (US->Iraq).

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What small states are going to kick off against China? China's rivals are large, powerful nations, not small ones which it could realistically stand a chance against.

Calm down gents, you are getting sidetracked into irrelevant details.

IT IS ALSO DANGEROUS TERRITORY!

The subject under discussion is whether a war on china's Eastern Seaboard, that forces a mass relocation of its existing Industrial Base into the Interior, may, in the medium term be in China's long term strategic interest.

Who participates and the outcome is not relevant to this argument.

Adeptitus you have actually strenghtened the arguement, by stateing that the main targets would be major Infrastructual ones, which would mean that Industry would need to relocate. It also means that the actual dmage would be limited and well within china's ability to quickly rebuild as a prelude to restarting East Coast development.

Any deviations from topic will not be dealt with lightly:nono: