Not looking to derail the "
2025 Israel - Iranian conflict" thread, so injecting some commentary to a few posts from said thread and this thread here . . .
J10C cost for Pakistan: $40M USD EA
J10C cost for Iran: $80M USD EA + at least 3 shoeshines for the supplier rep per day per year of operation, until your attitude improves
TBF minus the shoeshines, the above comparison more or less reflect reality, even if the numbers are imprecise.
Once Islamabad's access to
is factored in, merchandise like the J-10C make for a significantly more expensive proposition for Tehran than Islamabad.
I don't wanna say this is BS, but at least at this moment there's no way China would supply any weapon to Iran unless it plans to confront the US and Israel, and the West in a whole.
Iran ordered the S-300. Russia dragged its feet nine years to deliver it. At that same point Israel got the F-35. The S-300 system Iran got was basically obsolete on delivery. Having been burned they developed their own air defense systems. Which at least on paper are fairly good.
The UNSC enacted an arms embargo against Tehran in the late 2000s, which both Beijing and Moscow adhered to, in visible and significant ways, at least until the West took a harder stance against Russia in the aftermath of the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
As a result, Iran ended up receiving S-300s they had ordered from Russia in the mid-2000s in the mid-2010s.
When the UN arms embargo against Iran finally expired in 2020, Iran was in the midst of a severe multi-year economic recession which precluded a rebound in arms imports . . .
There's a good amount to digest here. The OP is much more informed than most, but there's quite a bit of nuance that she's ignoring.
Instead, Iran turned to Russia in 2023, at a time when Moscow was already bogged down in the war in Ukraine, which had begun on February 24, 2022. Tehran tried to acquire Su-35s and, more ambitiously, wanted to purchase the entire production line for domestic assembly. But two years later, by mid-2025, not a single Su-35 has arrived in Iran. No planes. No production line. No training systems. No change in combat readiness. By this point, one would expect Iran to reassess its options and consider buying from China. But it didn’t. Iran preferred to go without any new fighters at all rather than rely on Chinese technology.
The principal reason Tehran sought fighters from Moscow rather than Beijing in 2023 was because Iran was providing Russia with OWA drones that Moscow desperately needed at the time for ongoing operations in Ukraine.
This gave the Iranians a much stronger hand in arms sales negotiations with the Russians than what they had or could achieve with the Chinese.
The reason? A deeply ingrained belief that Chinese defense equipment is of inferior quality. Take the case of the C-802 anti-ship missile, a Chinese system Iran had acquired in the early 2000s. Iranian engineers, convinced there were flaws in the original Chinese design, modified the missile’s guidance system without consulting China. Subsequent test launches failed: the missiles missed their targets every time. When Chinese technicians were called in for after-sales support, they found the issue wasn’t with the original system it was with Iran’s modifications. Once restored to factory settings, the missiles performed exactly as intended. Iran's attitude toward Chinese arms: suspicion, second-guessing, and ultimately, rejection. Yet the irony is this: Iran wasn’t short on cash. With the money it had, it could have very easily built up its aerial defense system.
While this story might be true, it's
complete nonsense to think the Iranians look down on Chinese arms.
Besides the fact that Iran's treasured missile program sources a significant number of critical components like fiber-optic gyroscopes and M-code compatible GNSS receivers from China, one ought to consider Iran's principal source for technical military assistance in recent years: North Korea.
If North Korean arms technology is good enough for Iran, the Iranians aren't going to be too stuck up to accept Chinese arms so long as they can reasonably afford the cost of admission.
According to estimates from the U.S. State Department and various intelligence sources, Iran has spent roughly $15–20 billion supporting the Syrian government since 2011 averaging about $2 billion per year in military aid, fuel subsidies, logistics, and training. On top of that, Hezbollah receives an estimated $700 million annually, with some years seeing even higher flows. These are massive, long-term investments in foreign partners.
Given where things stand with Hezbollah and in Syria, an argument can be made that Iran should have prioritized even more funding to those proxies, but no point talking about that now . . .
One thing the OP failed to acknowledge is that Iranian aid to its foreign proxies more often than not manifested in the form of arms rather than cash, especially hard currency like USD, and for a number of years in the case of Syria, a big chunk of it materialized as services rendered by Iranian, Iraqi and even Hezbollah soldiers, militants and operatives.
OTOH not only do Chinese defense exporters need to be paid in cash, but payments will also have to be processed by willing financial institutions unafraid of (secondary) US sanctions.
Not sure what the numbers look like now, but following the expiration of the UN imposed arms embargo against Iran in 2020,
.
So if the Chinese authorities
really, really wanted to sell Iran HQ-9s or J-10s, they could have leveraged frozen Iranian assets, even if not as payment, as collateral for financing. However, Chinese banks didn't want to risk getting cut off from USD denominated transactions by the US Treasury, and there obviously wasn't enough political will for Beijing to go out of its way to "make things work" for cash poor Iran.