I frankly don't know what Israel endgame was(arguably Israel itself didn't), their first goal was neutralization of Iranian defensive and nuclear assets. Both succeeded, with exception of targets Israel couldn't touch beforehand, and could only draw in Americans. Which it did. Everything else, IMHO, came as a improvisation, when Israel didn't expecte anything near the success it got, and started making not well informed decisions in uncharted grounds.
Given that Iranian AD managed to hit exactly zero jets, including ancient 1980s jets, doing direct overflights over Tehran (and, perhaps less humiliating but more consequential - TEL hunting), I wonder if Iran even had anything other than decoys per your assessment.
Whole point of IRGC AD system - a massive investment over last two decades, which made Iran probably the only islamic power actually producing such means themselves, - was to prevent just that. This isn't a very high bar, btw - Houthis managed to do it v US.
Into begging same nuclear control that passed targets to Israel to return just to delay sanctions, and not even getting that?
That's one hell of a victory. Tired of winning, aren't you?
Iran now is in a magnificent position of trying to outproduce US(lol) through MRBMs(which was NOT the plan!), using damaged facilities, to establish at least it's D+1 deterrence position (which already failed them).
Their only chance to return to +0 - which also failed them, but perhaps this is redeemable, - is several years of uninterrupted SAM production, i.e. lots of high tech supply chains just begging to be... interrupted.
Yes, starting next year, Su-35s will come - but with ravaged stealth detection network, until it's restored and again supplied with enough replacement stations to make up for losses, they are highly vulnerable targets themselves.
Flanker-E is outstanding stealth counter only in designed conditions. Otherwise, it isn't even best flanker for the job on its own. Should've bought Felons.
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