Interesting, Pakistani AF to buy both F-16 and J-10

18-41 F-16C/D Block 52
68 F-16A/B MLU
32 J-10
150 JF-17

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The number of F-16 Block-52s may rise to the originally sought 75 by 2015; the PAF would never buy a small number of new fighter planes without heavily expanding on the fleet. Right now the initial Block-52 order is 18 aircraft with an option for 18 more - in all likelihood the PAF will execute the option, and the price would be roughly 1.8bn USD. Due to logistical, financial and technical reasons the PAF will probably order another 36 or so Block-52s in 2009 - and their unit cost would be cheaper as the PAF would have already set up necessary infrastructure, training, etc.

Acquisition of the 26 ex-Peace Gate-III/IV aircraft will also go through; 2 of the 28 embargoed F-16s have already been delivered to the PAF, the remaining 26 will be bought by PAF. Then the 60 F-16 Block-15 and Block-15OCUs will go through the Mid-Life-Update, bringing them fairly close to Block-52 standard in regards to avionics. Infrastructure for up to 100 active F-16A/Bs was set up in PAF since the mid-1990s; it is likely another 40 used Block-5/10/15s will be bought by PAF - but probably under the U.S EDA Program.

Acquisition of J-10s will likely NOT take place before 2015; the PAF has to induct F-16, JF-17, Erieye, new Air Defence systems, re-tool its doctrines, enhance training, etc. All this would require not only funds (which is limiting) but also manpower; it is likely that only a committment (MoU) to buy J-10s will be signed by PAF, but not actually an order. However my belief is that the PAF will acquire as many J-10s as new-built F-16s - to keep political balance with U.S; ensuring that an embargo would not have devasting effects.

The F-7PG, Mirage-V and ROSE-I/II/III will be kept till 2017 due to the formers' relatively new airframe latters' capability to use advanced systems. The Mirage ROSE-I can use BVRAAMs, ROSE-II and III can use PGMs, Mirage V is the only aircraft in PAF that can use Excocet, while F-7PG is pretty new.

you know, i keep hearing this stuff from pakistanis that more block 50s will be purchased. let's see them getting purchased first. As far as i can see, the cut in block 50s were basically replaced by the J-10 count. of course, there is the question of when the J-10s will be available for delivery and such, but that will be determined in negotiations between the 2 sides.

i seriously doubt they operate similar roles, it looks like j-10 will be the air superiority fighter, f-16 will be the multirole fighter and jf-17 will be the low-end intercept.

either way, good news for CAC all around.

tphuang said:

you know, i keep hearing this stuff from pakistanis that more block 50s will be purchased. let's see them getting purchased first. As far as i can see, the cut in block 50s were basically replaced by the J-10 count. of course, there is the question of when the J-10s will be available for delivery and such, but that will be determined in negotiations between the 2 sides.

i seriously doubt they operate similar roles, it looks like j-10 will be the air superiority fighter, f-16 will be the multirole fighter and jf-17 will be the low-end intercept.

either way, good news for CAC all around.

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Totally concur with tphuang. It would be J-10 at the expence of F-16 all the way. 18+ perhaps 18 options should be the last order Pakistan places for any new US aircraft. F-16 is end of line, where as J-10 is just coming into its prime, and it will go a long way with PLAF and PAF. The safer and economical way forward for PAF should be to enter into further collaboration with China on future projects, after they have turned JF-17 into a technical and commercial success.

You have to look at it at the PAF's standpoint; it is not as rich as IAF or PLAAF where it can place an order for 18 or 36 planes without expanding the fleet. Infrastructure, training, and all that stuff take valuable time and effort - if 18 Block-52s are supposed to be a stop-gap, then why not order more F-16A/B MLUs and drop the entire Block-52 plan? Fact that PAF still shows interest in Block-52 contrasts its interest to expand the fleet to at least 75. PAF bought 24 Mirage IIIs in 1964 - only to expand the fleet to 96 by 1979; PAF got 40 F-16A/Bs in 1983-1986 - only to try to expand the fleet to 100 by 1997 (which did not happen of course).

No matter how you look at it, the money comes before all else in Pakistan! Only time that Pakistan got daring was under Benezair Bhutto in her attempt to finalize a deal for 32 Mirage 2000-5s valued some 3bn USD! Of course her government was disposed and deal was cancelled by the Pak National Security Council.

Whether PAF orders 18 or 36 now does not matter - because in all likelihood, one way or another the Block-52 fleet will jump to 70-80 by 2015. You also have to consider that the PAF cannot induct three fighter planes and an AWACS system at the time - there is not enough manpower. Induction of J-10 will likely NOT take place before 2012 - heavy numbers of JF-17 will be inducted, Erieye, as well as F-16 during that time.

The J-10 committment itself shows the PAF's interest in acquiring it and the Pak Gov't's way of telling the U.S that it has alternatives; however if the PAF openly says that it wants Block-52s and the Chinese Gov't has yet to officially and publically give Pakistan the export license for J-10 gives us an idea of how the next 5 years will unfold. J-10s were going to acquired back before the Kashmir Earthquake - in IDEAS 2004 PAF made it clear that J-10 and Gripen were Plus One options; the retired ACM made it clear again in July-2005.

Dongfeng said:

I have got a feeling that this might something to do with politics.

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A political reason may be present for the decision by PAF to purchase F-16s from the US. It is known that the last assembly line(deemed for closure) for the F-16s and a few thousand jobs associated with it are dependent on the order by PAF.

It is still unclear as to why PAF requires F-16s, even though it shall get an equivalent or superior fighter jet with the J-10, and which is also cheaper.
As far as the A2G package of the J-10 is concerned, even though it is not as comprehensive for as compared to F-16, PAF can compensate for it by purchasing western A2G missiles besides having Chinese LGBs.

asaracen said:

Totally concur with tphuang. It would be J-10 at the expence of F-16 all the way. 18+ perhaps 18 options should be the last order Pakistan places for any new US aircraft. F-16 is end of line, where as J-10 is just coming into its prime, and it will go a long way with PLAF and PAF. The safer and economical way forward for PAF should be to enter into further collaboration with China on future projects, after they have turned JF-17 into a technical and commercial success.

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PAF requires upto 100 F-16s. The number would be made up through brand new F-16s which may go from 18 to 36 C/D models while rest of the number will be made up with the 2nd hand ones. Even with the end of the production line the F-16s (around the world) would have good amount of juice in them to form a country's good defence.

The advantage of J-10 is that it is next door friendly neighbour's invention. Coming at cheaper and production line will continue on when F-16 production haults. With the end of F-16 production line would come the end of F-16 evolution, but J-10 would still have good number of time to evolve into much better fighter.

The thing now is that PAF officials dont want the airforce and country to waste their resources on any current generation fighters. Many of them are saying buying more of them wont be sensible since they will be taken over by next generation aircrafts in next 4 to 5 years. So Pakistan should save its resources and buy next generation (4th gen) fighters when time and money is good and the new 4th gen fighters become a bit cheap. Major interest seems to be in Euro-Fighter but the price is not right now. May be after producing countries and interested countries (like Saudi Arabia) induct them, the price will come down. But by than, China might have some thing in its pocket to divert Pakistani attention.

The Pakistani Air Force has not purchased any major aircraft for quite some time due mostly to political reasons or sanctions. As for the diversity of its aircraft, over the next few years you'll see the emphasis placed on F-16's, F-10's and F-17's with a couple of AEW systems and the phasing out of older F-7, A-5, Mirage III and Mirage V's. In my opinion I think there will be less diversity over time and a concentration on 2-3 aircraft only. Pakistani 's have no shortage of manpower/trained individuals for they just need to conduct more recruitment drives to make up for any shortfalls as their are no shortage of potentially skilled aces in this country 150 million people. Furthermore, PAF has been flying a mixture of American, European and Chinese(Soviet) aircraft for quite some time and has the necessary infrastructure already in place, all that may needed is to expand or modify it.
In the end I would like to see Pakistan invest further in Chinese development programs(possible even going for a share of the J-10 program if possible) as well as with other foreign countries to further diversify its military procurement sources. :nono:

SABRE said:

The advantage of J-10 is that it is next door friendly neighbour's invention. Coming at cheaper and production line will continue on when F-16 production haults. With the end of F-16 production line would come the end of F-16 evolution, but J-10 would still have good number of time to evolve into much better fighter.

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Even when f-16 production halts, dozens of countries across the globe(From taiwan to greece) will still be opearting the aircraft. They would all need spares, maintanace, and mid-life upgrades. General dynamics wont miss out on the chance to make profits out of this demand, and will likely keep some lines open and keep a small r&d team in place.

MIGleader said:

Even when f-16 production halts, dozens of countries across the globe(From taiwan to greece) will still be opearting the aircraft. They would all need spares, maintanace, and mid-life upgrades. General dynamics wont miss out on the chance to make profits out of this demand, and will likely keep some lines open and keep a small r&d team in place.

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I agree with what you state here, but just a small correction: it would be Lockheed Martin which acquired the general dynamics-fort worth division in 1993. But absolutely, with thousands of F-16s in service worldwide, that is not business you just turn your back on. The last major version will be the Block 60, i am pretty sure, but a number of defense contractors worldwide will see business making minor add-on upgrades and keeping up with all the associated MRO.

I have to set something straight here. The fact that J-10 is even getting exported is amazing. China is not looking to give Pakistan ToT on this thing. I've read a lot about China offering ToT easily and such, that is bs. When are people going to realize that J-10 is getting attention due to its performance and future rather than it being easier to get parts and cheaper and ToT?