Fairthought
Junior Member
I agree with Jatt in the sense that the scenario is too far fetched to even be worthy of consideration.
First of all, Chinese and Indian navy would pussyfoot around each other because neither side wants to start a nuclear war. After jockeying for position, one side would proclaim they had the advantage and sail home to a victory parade. The other will furiously upgrade their navy for future competition.
Second, the Thai government is in America's pocket. They will Never fight for the Chinese.
Third, If this conflict was provoked by China, India would have lots of 'sudden' allies. Anyone with an axe to grind against China will lend them their services. The list includes: America, Britain, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Australia. Of these, America and Japan would be the most likely to take action.
South korea and Russia would remain neutral.
Fourth, if the oil conflict begins because of an Indian provocation then India would be blamed by the West for sending oil prices through the roof. The US isn't going to let anyone embargo the persian gulf, and they may send India a stern message.
India has their fleet divided: one in the Arabian Sea, the other in the Bay of Bengal. Only Indian subs, and advanced ones at that, could venture past the straits of Malaccas. But the point is India doesn't have to venture forth. The oil from the persian gulf snakes around India. The burden falls on China to secure these shipping lanes.
In the Arabian Sea, China has a friend in Pakistan. I expect chinese warships to regularly dock in Pakistani harbors by 2012. In the persian Gulf, China has a friend in Iran. In the south China sea, China has a friend in Indonesia. That leaves a big gaping hole in the Bay of Bengal.
China has two options: Help build up the Bangladeshi Navy, or the Myanmar Navy. Either one sounds like a fool's errand. These are incredibly poor countries, and a strong navy is the last thing on their mind. Also, it is still not clear if Myanmar is even pro-China. India has as much if not more influence in Myanmar.
The Indians have the advantage. That is why China is so bent on securing energy from Russian pipelines. China wants some economic insulation in case of a naval embargo.
First of all, Chinese and Indian navy would pussyfoot around each other because neither side wants to start a nuclear war. After jockeying for position, one side would proclaim they had the advantage and sail home to a victory parade. The other will furiously upgrade their navy for future competition.
Second, the Thai government is in America's pocket. They will Never fight for the Chinese.
Third, If this conflict was provoked by China, India would have lots of 'sudden' allies. Anyone with an axe to grind against China will lend them their services. The list includes: America, Britain, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Australia. Of these, America and Japan would be the most likely to take action.
South korea and Russia would remain neutral.
Fourth, if the oil conflict begins because of an Indian provocation then India would be blamed by the West for sending oil prices through the roof. The US isn't going to let anyone embargo the persian gulf, and they may send India a stern message.
India has their fleet divided: one in the Arabian Sea, the other in the Bay of Bengal. Only Indian subs, and advanced ones at that, could venture past the straits of Malaccas. But the point is India doesn't have to venture forth. The oil from the persian gulf snakes around India. The burden falls on China to secure these shipping lanes.
In the Arabian Sea, China has a friend in Pakistan. I expect chinese warships to regularly dock in Pakistani harbors by 2012. In the persian Gulf, China has a friend in Iran. In the south China sea, China has a friend in Indonesia. That leaves a big gaping hole in the Bay of Bengal.
China has two options: Help build up the Bangladeshi Navy, or the Myanmar Navy. Either one sounds like a fool's errand. These are incredibly poor countries, and a strong navy is the last thing on their mind. Also, it is still not clear if Myanmar is even pro-China. India has as much if not more influence in Myanmar.
The Indians have the advantage. That is why China is so bent on securing energy from Russian pipelines. China wants some economic insulation in case of a naval embargo.
