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TheFuture_NoMore

TheFuture_NoMore

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4Tran said:
This speaks to the IAF's lack of confidence in the Tejas.
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The Tejas future is questionable at this stage, a recent press conference by an indian general berated teh poort performance of local Indian AD systems in Operation Sindoor. It sounds like setting the scene for large scale foreign procurements from Europe, and also the USA.

The USA and Indians signed a new defence pact a few days ago, so i would more direct procurements from the USA for India.

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mossen

mossen

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Michael90 said:
Israel is a high tech hub (probably the only one in the Middle East), and they supply not just India but even European, Asian and even more so Latin American(one of their largest markets) countries. So it’s not about size but intellect.
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A significant chunk of Israeli "tech" is just sponsored by the US. Look at the development of the Arrow 3 long-range missiles. It wouldn't have been possible without US technical help and of course funding. It's the usual parasitical relationship the Israelis benefit from.

As for India-Israel, former USSR Jews well acquainted with Russian arms often help with maintenance. Since India has a lot of it, the Indians often asked Israelis for help in upgrading etc.

One final point. Israel helping countries in LatAm is not the same thing as helping a country of 1.5 billion. At 1.5 billion, you should do most basic work for yourself. India reformed in 1991, which is 13 years after China's 1978 "opening up". So they are 13 years behind. India in 2025 should be compared to where China was in 2012. At that point, China was already in the final stages of J-20 development. India cannot even make its own competent radar for 4th gen today and are reliant on a 10 million country like Israel.
 
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NorthKimBestKim

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TheFuture_NoMore said:
The Tejas future is questionable at this stage, a recent press conference by an indian general berated teh poort performance of local Indian AD systems in Operation Sindoor. It sounds like setting the scene for large scale foreign procurements from Europe, and also the USA.

The USA and Indians signed a new defence pact a few days ago, so i would more direct procurements from the USA for India.

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That is lovely news, Saar! Beside our imports from Rafale Fries and Jizz-Ra-Hell, it is great to see possible imports from United Masters of Business Administration as well. (Trump Saar, Please don't deny my MBA student visa, we will buy anything at any price). Rest assured, Saar, Tejas will be superior by 2035.

Imagine the lovely logistical maintainance between Russian + "Indigenious" + French + Tel-Aviv systems along with weapons systems from The Orange. The logistical and maintainance problems won't be an issue at all !
 
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GiantPanda

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mossen said:
India reformed in 1991, which is 13 years after China's 1978 "opening up". So they are 13 years behind. India in 2025 should be compared to where China was in 2012. At that point, China was already in the final stages of J-20 development. India cannot even make its own competent radar for 4th gen today and are reliant on a 10 million country like Israel.
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India was always a democracy and "open" so this 1991 reform marker is pretty much meaningless -- very unlike China which needed fundamental changes from a closed economy to a trading nation. This is nothing but an excuse and a hope (cope) that India needs XX number of years to catch up.

India is not 13 years behind. The number of years behind is basically indeterminate because China is growing far faster in everything -- in both things India has and thing India never had.

For example, a dozen years ago India had two carriers and China had none. China is now far ahead of India and accelerating the gap to unbreachable proportions with CATOBAR, EM, carrier-borne fixed-wing AEW, carrier-borne stealth fighter, etc. So India was 13 years behind in carriers in 2010 and is India today 13 years behind China today in fielding a stealth naval fighter on a CATOBAR carrier?

Example 2, India had never built a large transport like Y-20 which will be built in the hundreds and in variants from refueler to FTB to AEW. Will India be able to come up with a platform like this in 13 years? It can't even build a small turboprop transport!

In both cases, the best timeline would be in decades -- if ever. That "13 years behind" is senseless hope and cope. There is no determinate number of years behind.
 
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CMP

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GiantPanda said:
India was always a democracy and "open" so this 1991 reform marker is pretty much meaningless -- very unlike China which needed fundamental changes from a closed economy to a trading nation. This is nothing but an excuse and a hope (cope) that India needs XX number of years to catch up.

India is not 13 years behind. The number of years behind is basically indeterminate because China is growing far faster in everything -- in both things India has and thing India never had.

For example, a dozen years ago India had two carriers and China had none. China is now far ahead of India and accelerating the gap to unbreachable proportions with CATOBAR, EM, carrier-borne fixed-wing AEW, carrier-borne stealth fighter, etc. So India was 13 years behind in carriers in 2010 and is India today 13 years behind China today in fielding a stealth naval fighter on a CATOBAR carrier?

Example 2, India had never built a large transport like Y-20 which will be built in the hundreds and in variants from refueler to FTB to AEW. Will India be able to come up with a platform like this in 13 years? It can't even build a small turboprop transport!

In both cases, the best timeline would be in decades -- if ever. That "13 years behind" is senseless hope and cope. There is no determinate number of years behind.
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India is roughly 50-60 years behind if you think purely about their domestic military industrial and technological level.
 
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Nevermore

Nevermore

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How many years behind is not a very meaningful statement, let's guess how big India will grow in the future. Optimistically estimating that India will maintain a growth rate of 6.5% in the next 20 years and 3% in the following 20 years, India can grow to 6.3 times its current size in 40 years. This scale is enormous and can support India to become the world's third largest military power and second largest industrial country. Based on India's military spending ratio, it is estimated that India's military strength in 2065 will significantly surpass that of China today.
After having sufficient military budget, India will also imitate and develop, just like the People's Liberation Army. Currently, India still imitates outdated fighter jets, ballistic missiles, air-to-air missiles, and drones. With sufficient industrial scale in the future, India can also develop large warships, strategic bombers, sixth generation fighter jets, and so on.
 
C

CMP

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Nevermore said:
How many years behind is not a very meaningful statement, let's guess how big India will grow in the future. Optimistically estimating that India will maintain a growth rate of 6.5% in the next 20 years and 3% in the following 20 years, India can grow to 6.3 times its current size in 40 years. This scale is enormous and can support India to become the world's third largest military power and second largest industrial country. Based on India's military spending ratio, it is estimated that India's military strength in 2065 will significantly surpass that of China today.
After having sufficient military budget, India will also imitate and develop, just like the People's Liberation Army. Currently, India still imitates outdated fighter jets, ballistic missiles, air-to-air missiles, and drones. With sufficient industrial scale in the future, India can also develop large warships, strategic bombers, sixth generation fighter jets, and so on.
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Spending is not linear to progress. Especially when most of the funding is going to kickbacks from purchases of foreign military goods. By 2065, India will be lucky to have the military industrial capacity and military technological independence of China from the 2010s. India's current state is roughly China's of the 1980s to 1990s. Their GDP looks larger because of outsourced business process, nominally tech support, and low end pharma manufacturing work from the West, but none of that contributes to military industrial complex.
 
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tamsen_ikard

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Nevermore said:
How many years behind is not a very meaningful statement, let's guess how big India will grow in the future. Optimistically estimating that India will maintain a growth rate of 6.5% in the next 20 years and 3% in the following 20 years, India can grow to 6.3 times its current size in 40 years. This scale is enormous and can support India to become the world's third largest military power and second largest industrial country. Based on India's military spending ratio, it is estimated that India's military strength in 2065 will significantly surpass that of China today.
After having sufficient military budget, India will also imitate and develop, just like the People's Liberation Army. Currently, India still imitates outdated fighter jets, ballistic missiles, air-to-air missiles, and drones. With sufficient industrial scale in the future, India can also develop large warships, strategic bombers, sixth generation fighter jets, and so on.
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India needs to ensure it has enough toilets for all its citizens before they indulge in more superpower delusions.

Talking about India's so called potential growth is like fantasizing about subsaharan Africa becoming developed.

India has too much corruption, too much elite dominance, too much colonial mindset to become a developed country.

You need to have developed country mindset and culture before you actually become developed. India doesn't have that.

Look at thailand, stuck at 5000k gdp per capita for decades. Look at latin america. Also stuck.

This is the likely fate of India. They will get stuck and unable to move due to all the contradictions.
 
Nevermore

Nevermore

Junior Member
Registered Member
CMP said:
Spending is not linear to progress. Especially when most of the funding is going to kickbacks from purchases of foreign military goods. By 2065, India will be lucky to have the military industrial capacity and military technological independence of China from the 2010s. India's current state is roughly China's of the 1980s to 1990s. Their GDP looks larger because of outsourced business process, nominally tech support, and low end pharma manufacturing work from the West, but none of that contributes to military industrial complex.
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The industrial scale of India is accelerating, and the purchase of foreign weapons will only last for a period of time. With India's current industrial growth rate, in 15 years, India will have a considerable domestic industrial capability, which can at least support domestically produced fighter jets, small warships, and all non high end army weapons.
Of course, all these assumptions are based on the premise that India can maintain sustained growth. Whether India's manufacturing industry will start to expand and strengthen like an unstoppable snowball relying on its own domestic demand, and whether it can solve the obstacles brought by the domestic system in the future, are indeed unknown.
 
G

GulfLander

Colonel
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Nevermore said:
The industrial scale of India is accelerating, and the purchase of foreign weapons will only last for a period of time. With India's current industrial growth rate, in 15 years, India will have a considerable domestic industrial capability, which can at least support domestically produced fighter jets, small warships, and all non high end army weapons.
Of course, all these assumptions are based on the premise that India can maintain sustained growth. Whether India's manufacturing industry will start to expand and strengthen like an unstoppable snowball relying on its own domestic demand, and whether it can solve the obstacles brought by the domestic system in the future, are indeed unknown.
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Zome indian youtubers claiming mafg % of lndia gdp is decreasing tho... also other issues..
 
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