Indian Economics thread.

[Bellum_Romanum]

Here's a good quote:

"As long as they stay a bunch of squabbling tribes, they will remain a silly people."

Is that a quote from Bill Maher?

 

[Broccoli]

Imagine the world's largest population of young, unemployed people brainwashed by indian/western media. Sooner or later some extremist sects are going to break out

The demographic dividend is indeed quickly turning into a demographic bomb

India is still a caste society even thought people like to pretend otherwise, that means lower caste people cannot rise above where they are now, that means hundreds of millions poor people who can't turn into average working-class and earn more since they aren't allowed.. that has effect on whole economy.

Street or sewer cleaner dalit cannot become a professional cleaner or plumber and earn more money because he/she isn't allowed.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

India's budget for the next fiscal year (2022-23) was presented yesterday. A few highlights:

• Subsidies for agri were slashed by 20%
• Subsidies for a rural job guarantee (important in times of distress) were slashed by 25%
• Capital expenditure was boosted by 30%, biggest jump in many years.
• Fiscal deficit for center+states only marginally declines to 9.5%. However, nominal GDP will increase by ~14%.
• Debt to GDP will not meaningfully improve, stays elevated at 90% of GDP.
• Interest expenditure will go up to around 1/4th of total revenue collection.

Reflections:

India continues to pursue a policy that is capital-intensive and unsuited for its demographic profile (lots of unskilled and underemployed labour). The govt is betting lots of billions on luring semiconductor firms to its shores. It could work, but to borrow a famous phrase: at what cost?

The biggest challenge is employment generation and semiconductors are not employment-intensive. It will help with the import bill but not the aspirations of its vast reserve pool of underutilised labour. Health care expenditure is shrinking back to its pre-pandemic lows, despite widely being seen as insufficient, as the pandemic showed.

India is once again conducting an elite-biased economic policy which will only work for the top 10%.

Indian doesn't have the capability to support a semiconductor industry because it doesn't have the infrastructure, market or talent.

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Semiconductor fabs

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They don't have an electronics PCB industry to support the semiconductor industry either. They're not importing components, they're still importing whole devices.

 

[Equation]

Is that a quote from Bill Maher?

Yup.

 

[mossen]

Indian doesn't have the capability to support a semiconductor industry because it doesn't have the infrastructure, market or talent.

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and

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Semiconductor fabs

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They don't have an electronics PCB industry to support the semiconductor industry either. They're not importing components, they're still importing whole devices.

Well, I'm skeptical too. But we'll see. I think that Indian elites are too pre-occupied with intellectually stimulating and fancy sectors. They seem to want to forget that their country is just $2000 per capita rich. Pushing low-end mass manufacturing isn't sexy and its boring and unglamorous. But it's what India needs to do.

 

[Andy1974]

Yup.

It’s from Lawrence of Arabia.

 

[Tyler]

Well, I'm skeptical too. But we'll see. I think that Indian elites are too pre-occupied with intellectually stimulating and fancy sectors. They seem to want to forget that their country is just $2000 per capita rich. Pushing low-end mass manufacturing isn't sexy and its boring and unglamorous. But it's what India needs to do.

Have they reformed their agricultural industries?

 

[OppositeDay]

China built its semiconductor industry first by recruiting Taiwanese and South Korean engineers. Given the rumored difficulty TSMC had in getting Taiwanese engineers to move to Arizona, I doubt many of them are going to sign up for India.

 

[xypher]

China built its semiconductor industry first by recruiting Taiwanese and South Korean engineers. Given the rumored difficulty TSMC had in getting Taiwanese engineers to move to Arizona, I doubt many of them are going to sign up for India.

But India is the biggest democracy™ and is going to become a superpower in 2030, I am sure the Taiwanese engineers are already packing.

 

[KYli]

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