Less talking, more doing.
Indian Economics thread.
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Less talking, more doing.
If India is waiting for compound interest to close the gap with China then good luck
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"the engineer"
Which is applied universally and not to just India. So China's growth is also compounded.
So what Reuters is promoting (regardless of reality) is that the executives of these companies are willing to moving their production lines… ie the very existence of their companies to a place that managed to pass a retrospective tax when the closest they ever got to being a SupaPowa was in their wet dream when they sleep… I wonder how that is going to work out when the production is ever actually dependent on said SupaPowa…
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I don't necessary disagree with that. But in real life it's a lot more complex than that. Don't forget western MSM were saying the same thing about China and U.S. a couple of decades back.
This is the difference between the mentality of China and India. China never pursue the dream of greatness through superpower status. Whereas India shamelessly does.
China's concern was always the welfare of its people, whereas India was, and is still always on how big their military equipments are. I mean, they had carriers to "defend" their sealanes from a non-existent threat before they could feed and educated their populace. For crying loud. And all the uneducated starving Jai Hind can console themselves it's worth it to be an uneducated beggar on the street.
This is true. But! It'll still take India a long time to catch up with China, don't forget it took China growing at a sustain pace never seen before for any country for over 30 years just to be within 80% of U.S. GDP today. So India need to grow like China at double digit for the next 30 years. Something they haven't managed ever in their history.
India always dream superpower. And the western MSM are happy to play along. Particularly if it had the extra benefit of fxxking China up at the same time.
But in reality, businesses are not buying it because of India's poor infrastructure. Corruption, human capital. Etc.
The only thing going for India is cheap abundance labour. Well guess what. This cheap abundance labour is also available from other countries BUT with the added benefit of....... education.
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I mean even India's growth rate doesn't tell the whole story.
How can you even get close to catching up when your growth doesn't surpass your currency's decline in most years?
They get a one time increase then years of stagnation, because their currency consistently depreciates enough to destroy all growth.
And even those random big one time increases are always causing suspicion:
Don't be surprised if one day there is a massive correction in India's total size. By as much as 25% or more. You heard it here first! Honestly, I find the proposition that they have an economy more than double the size of Brazil unlikely.
How can you even get close to catching up when your growth doesn't surpass your currency's decline in most years?
They get a one time increase then years of stagnation, because their currency consistently depreciates enough to destroy all growth.
And even those random big one time increases are always causing suspicion:
Don't be surprised if one day there is a massive correction in India's total size. By as much as 25% or more. You heard it here first! Honestly, I find the proposition that they have an economy more than double the size of Brazil unlikely.
Exactly.
How the two countries want aircraft carriers is a great example of this difference in mentality. The Chinese want to get aircraft carriers to protect their sovereignty and wealth. But the Indians would rather starve to get an aircraft carrier, so that they could perform power projection onto other countries. India have used its aircraft carrier to blockade Pakistan in the past. Jai Hinds now wet dream to do the same against China.
Jai Hinds constantly contradict themselves. On one hand, they talk about India overtaking China. One another, they say that India is already ahead of China. How can you win a race if you don't even know where your actual position is?
India on paper has all the basic ingredients to becomes a country as successful as China. But India will never realise its dream to become a superpower. Simply because of its mentality. India has the wrong aims for coveting power, it lacks self reflection, it lacks self development, it is intensely envious in a negative way, it is very arrogant, and it is easily manipulated by imperialist powers. Not a mentality for success.
I enjoy Jayant Bhandari's savage of India. Nevertheless I do think he does have a controversial extreme pessimism about India. Mostly controversial for the politically correct culture of today. He has mentioned that India only truly enjoyed prosperity under the British rule.
He has this idea that the world is divided into two groups: one group are the rational civilisations, and the other group are the irrational savages. He considers East Asia with China included, Europe, Russia, and North America as the rational 'civilized' group. While he considers the rest of the world as irrational savages. A very controversial view. And can be easily debated in my opinion.
Jayant Bhandari is especially scathing against his own country, India. He said that he grew up in the slums, and have a deep disdain for Indians, both the rich and the poor. The poor he considers as simple minded savages, while the rich are just the same savages with power and wealth. To come to that kinda conclusion, his early life in India must have been hard. To his credit, he cites figures and data to back up his pessimism about India. So far, no Jai Hinds have been able to debate with him. They can only attack him. Well that's hilarious.
Jayant Bhandari does have an extreme pessimism about India that can be hard to digest for the politically correct. But then we see repeated Indian failures, increased consumption of cow excrement, Covid-19 disaster, military disaster, and holy cow > science. Maybe his view are not as extreme as it sounds with regards to India.
I always kind of wondered about all the western media's projection of India.
India's supposed advantages lays in its vast labor pool and low wages. But this is offset by poor efficiency, low skill (based on what I saw in my subcontractors and the high value engineering center employees), red tapes/corruption, poor infrastructure and poor supply chain.
With the 4th industrial revolution, automation and AI, there is bound to be a massive increase in productivity around the world.
This is going to make it uncompetitive for the Indian manufacturing, as the low wages is offset by lower efficiency. The massive labor pool is just going cause a downward spiral for lower wages and high staff turnover, increased rich/poor gap as well as unemployment/under employment problem and low domestic consumption. Its going to be a generational effort to rectify this even if they have an competent functioning government....
I kind of see them as kind of like a 200mil population basket case country with 1 billion dead weights around the poverty line propping up the life style of those 200million.... If they started to properly address the education/infrastructure problems, wouldn't the social structure fracture even more leading to even more problems?
India's supposed advantages lays in its vast labor pool and low wages. But this is offset by poor efficiency, low skill (based on what I saw in my subcontractors and the high value engineering center employees), red tapes/corruption, poor infrastructure and poor supply chain.
With the 4th industrial revolution, automation and AI, there is bound to be a massive increase in productivity around the world.
This is going to make it uncompetitive for the Indian manufacturing, as the low wages is offset by lower efficiency. The massive labor pool is just going cause a downward spiral for lower wages and high staff turnover, increased rich/poor gap as well as unemployment/under employment problem and low domestic consumption. Its going to be a generational effort to rectify this even if they have an competent functioning government....
I kind of see them as kind of like a 200mil population basket case country with 1 billion dead weights around the poverty line propping up the life style of those 200million.... If they started to properly address the education/infrastructure problems, wouldn't the social structure fracture even more leading to even more problems?
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