Indian Economics Thread II

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pbd456

Junior Member
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Hence the reason the Indian gov. consistently wants to export its mouths with feet to other countries. That way, they don't have to worry about educating, training and providing jobs for these people, and india can secure a 5th column inside that country eg Canada, UK.

a new indian desert at the foot of the Himalayas would be an excellent buffer against indians trying to get into China or even SEAsia.


But hygiene (or lack thereof) isn't the only impediment to India's progress.

GB had a great article to show that the attitude of indians who behave as proper Anglo Sepoys is the biggest impediment to their own development:
Indians are used to these food and their bodies are adapted to it, do it shouldn't be a big concern to them -- even as outsiders we may think otherwise. I find 3usd for the sandwich is pretty expensive. Is that tuna that is spread to the bread?
 

mossen

Junior Member
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GB had a great article to show that the attitude of indians who behave as proper Anglo Sepoys is the biggest impediment to their own development:
I think a major difference between Chinese and Indian elites is that Chinese elites are not nearly as westernised as India's elites are.

For a long time, I struggled to understand why India was so keen on letting its smartest people get easier visa access abroad. For low-skill migrants working in the Gulf, it is easy to understand. But why export your most capable people like e.g. Satya Nadella? Okay, maybe you can't prevent it... but why make it easier for them to leave?

But then I understood that this is elite Indian preference. Many view settling abroad in the West - preferably in the Anglo West - as the key goal in life and they influence Indian govt policy in their favour. Every single trade negotiation with India always ends up the same persistent demands from India for easier visa access. You see it with the UK-India FTA negotiations now and you saw it with the Australia-India FTA. Same with India-EU FTA.

But the flipside to this is that it becomes harder for Indian authorities to pursue economic policies that the West doesn't like, because a large part of their elites are "comprador intellectuals". When India tried to force US tech firms to play by local rules, they quickly had to abandon those prospects because the US threatened with reduced visa access. India's software sector also mostly just exports to the West. They tried to diversify to other markets, like China, but they failed to do so. This creates another vulnerability for the West to exploit.

When India wanted to build its own domestic ecommerce champions, once again the West used its influence over the Indian elite - including in the media - and a non-stop campaign of negativity was launched. In the end, the only domestic alternative to Amazon was Flipkart and it was since bought up by Walmart. So the two main players in India's ecommerce market are American!

China managed to build its own domestic champions because it knew that giving full access to its market before it was developed would result in economic colonisation. But you can only take those decisions if your elite aren't as westernised as India's. So while Indians brag about how many tech CEOs in the US are Indian, I always ask myself if bragging about being brain-drained by the West is really something to be proud of. I'd rather have domestic champions like Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent instead of seeing my best and brightest work for the enrichment of someone else. But this is mindset issue that is unlikely to change any time soon. And I believe India's economy is worse off for it.
 

56860

Senior Member
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You guys are being too critical about India, just like what the west think of China , which in no way is close to the reality.
No, I think this forum's evaluation of Indian leadership and governance is, given the prevailing evidence, very reasonable. Especially when viewed in contrast to the "India will replace/surpass China" cope MSM is currently spewing.
 

KYli

Brigadier
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NEW DELHI/OAKLAND, California (Reuters) - A planned $3 billion semiconductor facility in India by chip consortium ISMC that counted Israeli chipmaker Tower as a tech partner has been stalled due to the company's ongoing takeover by Intel, three sources said, dashing India's chip making plans.

A second mega $19.5 billion plan to build chips locally by a joint venture between India's Vedanta and Taiwan's Foxconn is also proceeding slowly as their talks to rope in European chipmaker STMicroelectronics as a partner are deadlocked, a fourth source with direct knowledge said.

The challenges faced by the companies deal a major setback to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has made chipmaking a top priority as he wants to "usher in a new era in electronics manufacturing" by luring global companies.

India, which expects its semiconductor market to be worth $63 billion by 2026, last year received three applications to set up plants under a $10 billion incentive scheme. They were from the Vedanta-Foxconn JV; a global consortium ISMC which counts Tower Semiconductor as a tech partner; and from Singapore-based IGSS Ventures.

The Vedanta JV plant is to come up in Modi's home state of Gujarat, while ISMC and IGSS each committed $3 billion for plants in two separate southern states.

Three sources with direct knowledge of the strategy said ISMC's $3 billion chipmaking facility plans are currently on hold as Tower could not proceed to sign binding agreements as things remain under review after Intel acquired it for $5.4 billion last year. The deal is pending regulatory approvals.

Talking about India's semiconductor ambitions, India's deputy IT minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar told Reuters in a May 19 interview ISMC "could not proceed" due to Intel acquiring Tower, and IGSS "wanted to re-submit (the application)" for incentives. The "two of them had to drop out," he said, without elaborating.

Tower is likely to reevaluate taking part in the venture based on how its deal talks with Intel pan out, two of the sources said.

ISMC consortium partners Next Orbit Ventures did not respond to a request for comment and Tower declined comment. Intel also declined comment.


Singapore-based IGSS did not respond, and neither did India's federal IT ministry.

SETBACK FOR VEDANTA

Most of the world's chip output is limited to a few countries like Taiwan, and India is a late entrant. Amid much fanfare, in September, the Vedanta-Foxconn JV announced its chipmaking plans in Gujarat. Modi called the $19.5 billion plan "an important step" in boosting India's chipmaking ambitions.

But things haven't gone smoothly as the JV tries to hunt for a tech partner. The fourth source said Vedanta-Foxconn had got on board STMicroelectronics for licensing tecnology, but India's government had conveyed it wants STMicro to have "more skin in the game" - like a stake in the partnership.

STMicro is not keen on that and the talks remain in limbo, the source added. "From STM's perspective, that proposal doesn't make sense because they want India market to first be more mature," said the person.

Deputy IT minister Chandrasekhar told Reuters during the May 19 interview the Vedanta-Foxconn JV was "struggling currently to tie up with a technology partner."

STMicro declined comment.

In a statement, Vedanta-Foxconn JV CEO, David Reed, said they have an agreement with a technology partner to transfer technology with licenses, but declined to comment further.

In a move seen to revive investor interest, India's IT ministry on Wednesday said the country will start re-inviting applications for chipmaking incentives. This time the companies can apply until December next year, as opposed to the initial phase where there was only a 45 day window.

"It is expected that some of current applicants will reapply and new fresh investors will also apply," minister Chandrasekhar said on Twitter.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
I think a major difference between Chinese and Indian elites is that Chinese elites are not nearly as westernised as India's elites are.

For a long time, I struggled to understand why India was so keen on letting its smartest people get easier visa access abroad. For low-skill migrants working in the Gulf, it is easy to understand. But why export your most capable people like e.g. Satya Nadella? Okay, maybe you can't prevent it... but why make it easier for them to leave?

But then I understood that this is elite Indian preference. Many view settling abroad in the West - preferably in the Anglo West - as the key goal in life and they influence Indian govt policy in their favour. Every single trade negotiation with India always ends up the same persistent demands from India for easier visa access. You see it with the UK-India FTA negotiations now and you saw it with the Australia-India FTA. Same with India-EU FTA.

But the flipside to this is that it becomes harder for Indian authorities to pursue economic policies that the West doesn't like, because a large part of their elites are "comprador intellectuals". When India tried to force US tech firms to play by local rules, they quickly had to abandon those prospects because the US threatened with reduced visa access. India's software sector also mostly just exports to the West. They tried to diversify to other markets, like China, but they failed to do so. This creates another vulnerability for the West to exploit.

When India wanted to build its own domestic ecommerce champions, once again the West used its influence over the Indian elite - including in the media - and a non-stop campaign of negativity was launched. In the end, the only domestic alternative to Amazon was Flipkart and it was since bought up by Walmart. So the two main players in India's ecommerce market are American!

China managed to build its own domestic champions because it knew that giving full access to its market before it was developed would result in economic colonisation. But you can only take those decisions if your elite aren't as westernised as India's. So while Indians brag about how many tech CEOs in the US are Indian, I always ask myself if bragging about being brain-drained by the West is really something to be proud of. I'd rather have domestic champions like Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent instead of seeing my best and brightest work for the enrichment of someone else. But this is mindset issue that is unlikely to change any time soon. And I believe India's economy is worse off for it.
India invested a lot in tertiary and higher education for a small minority at the expense of basic primary and secondary education for the majority of its population. The idea was it would allow India to skip the transition China made and developing countries by going from a primary sector economy directly to a service oriented economy. It would also allow India to take on ambitious projects like the space programme.

The gamble didn't pay off because as soon as these scientists, doctors and engineers can they go abroad, never repaying the investment India made in them. They're left with a massive brain drain and poorly educated populace, even by third world standards.

The medical profession is the prime example. India trains far more doctors than it can afford to employ, and there is intense competition for job places in hospital in India - especially in state run hospitals. This is a situation unheard of in most of the world. So Indian doctors emigrate all over the world for work, with India receiving very little compensation for the years of training put into them.
 

Chevalier

Captain
Registered Member

As much as India has grown there are not a lot of jobs for young Indians, not that they have much beyond customer service representative type roles and scamming gullible boomers.
The medical profession is the prime example. India trains far more doctors than it can afford to employ, and there is intense competition for job places in hospital in India - especially in state run hospitals. This is a situation unheard of in most of the world. So Indian doctors emigrate all over the world for work, with India receiving very little compensation for the years of training put into them.
Not that the training is up to first world standard, this was a massive scandal in Australia years back when it happened
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And of course you have grifters like mindy Kaling’s brother pretending to be black in order to get affirmative action in medical school
 

mossen

Junior Member
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India invested a lot in tertiary and higher education for a small minority at the expense of basic primary and secondary education for the majority of its population. The idea was it would allow India to skip the transition China made and developing countries by going from a primary sector economy directly to a service oriented economy. It would also allow India to take on ambitious projects like the space programme.
Excellent point. I have never seen any other country as obsessed with the term "leapfrogging".

Circling back to our previous debate, is India's overinvestment into elite education a function of the caste system? If the elites were of UC (upper caste) then they'd care more about their own offspring rather than improve the chances for everyone, even if it means investing less in elite education.

China did the exact opposite. It was a very "anti-elitist" strategy and it didn't really change ever after Deng came to power. It was only after the year 2000 that China began to pay serious attention to its university system. The sequencing was perfect for a developing country.

India would really need a major push to invest in vocational education or else they can forget becoming an industrial power.
 

mossen

Junior Member
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6-7% growth isn't enough for a developing economy. All the economic miracle runs in East Asia sustained around 8-10% for several decades.
Wait until I tell you that perhaps India isn't even growing at 5%.

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In a move seen to revive investor interest, India's IT ministry on Wednesday said the country will start re-inviting applications for chipmaking incentives. This time the companies can apply until December next year, as opposed to the initial phase where there was only a 45 day window.

This is an implicit admission that the entire process will be redone from scratch and it won't be until 2025 that we will have any serious deal in place, at the earliest. As for STM, I've heard that the Indians have done their usual bit of aggressive tech transfer pressure tactics, just as they've tried in negotiations over jet engines etc. It never works.

Some of their troubles are also probably related to the fact that the entire chip industry is in a structural slowdown (outside of China), so committing to major new investments isn't something major firms will want to do. Bad timing on top of bad policy.

The question will need to be raised if investing billions into a chip industry makes sense for an economy with a per capita income of $2500. But this is the usual Indian obsession with "leapfrogging". Can't help themselves.
 
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