Indian Economics Thread II

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Sardaukar20

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Same JH writer on RT talking about India's presidency of the G20.

How it was going last week:
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How its going now:
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The G20 is in the throes of global dissonance ahead of a meeting of its member's foreign ministers in New Delhi this week.
Yeah, the G20 is losing relevance. And India being its current president means nothing.

An early jarring note was struck by Japan, whose foreign minister Yoshimasa Hayashi will not attend the meeting, Kwatra confirmed. The top Indian diplomat cited the minister’s “domestic compulsions” — he has chosen to take part in parliamentary business back home — despite New Delhi’s “sterling relationship” with Tokyo.
Japan, one of India's 'best friends', didn't show up.

The combined economic might of eight of the nine (Russia excluded) G20 members that are emerging economies – India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Argentina and South Africa – amounts to more than $9.5 trillion. Cumulatively, the size of their economies is larger than any single member’s except the US ($23.32 trillion) and China ($18.32 trillion).
China's economy is nearly 2 times larger than the combined economies of India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, Argentina, and South Africa. India's economy is about $3.5trillion in 2022. Big, but nowhere near in China's league. India already missed its 2020 target of overtaking China's economy. Lack of progress is truly an understatement for India, considering its Superpowa ambitions.

India’s headache​

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s slogan, Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam, a Sanskrit text from the Vedic scripture of the Maha Upanishad, loosely translates to One Earth, One Family, One Future. This optimistic outlook is somewhat pale amid the prevailing global situation. New Delhi has to play host to guests from opposing global camps, such as the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, together with his Western counterparts, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
India is eager to play a leading role in the Global South, and speaking out against debt burden has been one of its main avenues for doing so. This issue itself could be a source of discord at the G20 gatherings even as New Delhi tries to steer discussion away from more immediately contentious subjects.

The likely outcome​

In a zero-sum game that has come to signify modern-day diplomacy, a lack of consensus is the most plausible outcome after the two-day meeting, as Russia and China refuse to back down to bullying from US-led Western nations over the Ukraine situation. The emerging economies will likely be reduced to playing the role of a casual bystander, even as New Delhi bids to amplify its stance as the leading voice of the Global South.

The G20 finance ministers’ meeting last Saturday failed to adopt a joint statement on the global economy over lack of consensus on a raft of issues. A similar outcome is on the cards in this week’s meeting.
Why is all this happening? Because India doesn't matter in big politics. The West and Russia only entertained India to get some favours, and that is it. Like adults entertaining a kid who desperately wants attention. But when the grown ups talk about serious business, they ignore the kid. Being the current president of the G20 is nothing for India, its just a ceremonial position. India itself has no influence in world affairs. It is just like a kid watching adults talk and argue amongst each other, while pretending to be important.
 

TK3600

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Looks like Qin Gang is going to test the waters and see if the Adani setback has cooled Modi's relations with the West.

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Wondering if they can flip South Asia like they did with the GCC.
GCC flipping was a diplomatic miracle. India flipping to just neutral would be another miracle right after. The pre-conditions are there. The Ukrainian war and subsequent non-participating sanction soured western relation to India. The Adani Group attack was out of nowhere and really hurt the India pride, and we all know how prideful Indians are. Further more Adani is a close supporter to Modi and they will surely use their influence to make a point.
 

coolgod

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Looks like Qin Gang is going to test the waters and see if the Adani setback has cooled Modi's relations with the West.

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Wondering if they can flip South Asia like they did with the GCC.
I doubt it, India will most likely suck up to the west and abandon Russia. India even joined in the condemnation of Russia while hosting the G20.
 

xypher

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View attachment 108293

The FT tried to dunk on China and inadvertently shows that India is far behind (and will stay far behind).
Not to mention that the plot itself is dumb and shows once again that Western journalists are either hilariously underqualified or are just glorified propagandists.

Manufacturing fell as a percentage of Chinese GDP, true, but the Chinese GDP grew too - 27% of $18 trillion GDP is higher than 30% of $10.5 trillion back in 2014. So in reality there are even MORE products that are "made in China" than in the past. The plot tries to sell the idea as if Vietnam is overtaking China in manufacturing but when you don't look at the misleading plot, then you get the truth - Chinese manufacturing is ~$4.9 trillion (27% of GDP), Vietnamese is ~$92 billion (25% of GDP) or less than 2% of Chinese manufacturing...
 

mossen

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Manufacturing fell as a percentage of Chinese GDP, true, but the Chinese GDP grew too - 27% of $18 trillion GDP is higher than 30% of $10.5 trillion back in 2014. So in reality there are even MORE products that are "made in China" than in the past.

That's exactly right.

FpiEpLzXoAI1U_6.jpg

China had ~18% of world MVA in 2008. The latest data shows it has increased to ~32%.

India probably saw its share grow a little bit during the same period but progress has truly been glacial.
 

luminary

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Today’s “grim reality” is that the economy needs to create 200 million jobs over the next decade to employ all working-age Indians.

As the optimism of the early years of independence was frittered away, the Angry Indian—materially thwarted and jobless—emerged as a political archetype. He has now given way to the Angry Hindu. Under India’s prime ministers—most notably Nehru and Indira Gandhi—the West was seen as India’s nemesis, intent on denying a proud country its due. Under the Hindu-chauvinist Mr. Modi, Muslim Indians are the scapegoat.



Worse news: Adani is now bought. The chive is cut?
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American investment fund just rode to the rescue of Indian tycoon accused of fraud​

Star fund manager Rajiv Jain invested $1.9 billion in Gautam Adani's industrial conglomerate, just when the beleaguered business magnate needed it the most.
 
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