Indian Economics Thread II

[ansy1968]

There is like close to zero similarity between China and India apart from the population size, people trying to draw parallels should really try to look beyond the surface level. Starting from blatant work culture & workforce quality ending with government regulations and infrastructure, they are almost 180 from each other and often these differences favour China.

Until India dissolved its CASTE SYSTEM then we can talk about challenging China, The collective west always rave about India due to its large population BUT how many of those are educated and productive? Dalit comprise a large part of the population and the much vaunted middle class that have REAL purchasing power only numbered 60 million. With majority relying more on Overseas remittances to sustain their way of life.

 

[siegecrossbow]

There is like close to zero similarity between China and India apart from the population size, people trying to draw parallels should really try to look beyond the surface level. Starting from blatant work culture & workforce quality ending with government regulations and infrastructure, they are almost 180 from each other and often these differences favour China.

I have seen a comment somewhere saying that "India is always the future country" - and I can't agree more with that statement. I have been hearing this buzz about the "India is the second China" for decades, yet India is still far behind but people somehow think that the long awaited leap is just around the corner and in mere 5-10 years India will be the new manufacturing powerhouse. You might say that "Rome was not built in a day" or something but I would like to point out an example of the IT sector where India has been "the China" for the American tech companies for decades now yet still all their large companies are just IT outsource sweatshops, are there major indigenous Indian software companies even on the local scale? It is as if China would still have zero local brands and just be riddled with contract manufacturers like Foxconn. For all the purported talks of Indian competency in IT (I'm often even seeing people saying that India has edge over China in IT, lol), I'm yet to see any successful Indian company in that sector. I'm not even talking about some global-level players like ByteDance, I would be satisfied with local tech giants that actually make quality products.

It is the Once and Future Country, the King Arthur of countries and a noble goal to aspire too for other developing nations.

 

[xypher]

Until India dissolved its CASTE SYSTEM then we can talk about challenging China, The collective west always rave about India due to its large population BUT how many of those are educated and productive? Dalit comprise a large part of the population and the much vaunted middle class that have REAL purchasing power only numbered 60 million. With majority relying more on Overseas remittances to sustain their way of life.

That would be a first step but there are MANY other issues that need to get solved. For example, remember the farmer protests that raged all over India and the government eventually had to cave in? These reforms, although unpopular, were actually needed but had to be backtracked.

 

[MortyandRick]

That would be a first step but there are MANY other issues that need to get solved. For example, remember the farmer protests that raged all over India and the government eventually had to cave in? These reforms, although unpopular, were actually needed but had to be backtracked.

Wait did the government actually cave in? I thought they went through with it.

 

[ansy1968]

I can clearly see another supply chain will exist and it's going to be beneficial for india because if china is not going to be part of it then west will seek goods from other region, india can fullfill alot of demands.

If you really believed what you say then I have a bridge to sell you.

 

[xypher]

Wait did the government actually cave in? I thought they went through with it.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

. All three bills were repealed.

 

[henrik]

iPhones were manufactured in China from the very first one back in 2007. The budget Chinese phones you can only afford to buy in your local bazaar aren't representative of Chinese manufacturing capability.

Whatever happens in Taiwan isn't going to change the fact that it's going to take decades to shift large scale production away from China. If America sanctions products made in China all that will happen is they will end up like the USSR where consumer products are either non existent or clearly inferior to those available in countries not sanctioning China.

China can just ban Apple products thereby suppressing it worldwide. They can also ban the use of Chinese technology in US branded products. That would mean Apple cannot buy parts from Chinese vendors, like memory chips from YMTC and screen panels from BOE.
This would be effective as Chinese vendors have displaced most Korean and Japan vendors.

 

[supersnoop]

India in 2023 is a much bigger gamble than China in the 1980s. There was no bloated bureaucracy, poor law and order, ethnic and religious warfare, and so on.

India is a big domestic market and many western and Chinese companies alike have been burned investing in it.

I suspect this story is Apple signalling to the US government, "if we can't make iPhone cases in India, how can we make anything high tech?"

Apple is paying for it, and ultimately it will be the consumer.

Divesting away from China is a political decision not an economic decision, but one that can be imposed by the American authorities.

China in 1980's shared almost all of these aspects, maybe not religious warfare, but there was quite a bit of regionalism at the time.
- Party apparatus was still very entrenched within companies since SOEs still ran the show, most of these people simply did not have a business background
- Poor law and order, many decisions were kind of arbitrary owing to the learning curve from the transition from a fully planned economy to an open one. For example, AMC/Chrysler was given special deals to be allowed to move money more freely back to America. Other companies did not enjoy this privilege.

The big difference is that changes came quickly and the reabsorption of HK which brought more stability and familiarity for both sides (China and Western/Japanese companies).

Yes it’s a political decision with no money behind it. Apple (and other companies) are NOT paying for these things which is why the transition is slow and relying on smaller (both literally and revenue wise) products such as AirPods first. Why do most companies start with CKD assembly? Because it minimizes risk. Is anyone opening an OLED panel and memory chip factory in India? Who’s building the port facilities? (Adani actually, and we know how that is going…)

 

[Hadoren]

This article has a very interesting graph showing GDP per person as a share of the G7 average.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I got unarchived access from

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

.

Since 2014, India only increased from 11.1% to 13.0% of G7 GDP per capita. That is, India only caught up by 1.9% under Modi.

I was genuinely surprised by this, considering India's consistent 6 to 8% growth and the BJP's endless boasting.

Modi has honestly done worse than I thought.

 

[coolgod]

This article has a very interesting graph showing GDP per person as a share of the G7 average.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I got unarchived access from

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

.

Since 2014, India only increased from 11.1% to 13.0% of G7 GDP per capita. That is, India only caught up by 1.9% under Modi.

I was genuinely surprised by this, considering India's consistent 6 to 8% growth and the BJP's endless boasting.

Modi has honestly done worse than I thought.

Modi is honestly a pretty competent leader for India, Modi's successor may not be so competent.