Indian Economics Thread II
- Thread starter NiuBiDaRen
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If I'm not mistaken that would give India a gdp of $20 trillion. Yeah good luck getting 8~10% yearly gdp growth when your pissing of Chinese investors, creating tensions on your border.
And expecting Indians to not boast so they can hide their strength and bide their time seems like a impossible thing.
So India has to grow at 8-10% every year, for the next 25 years in a row, to reach China's GDP today. Perspective.
1. India is a structural current account deficit (CAD) country. In other words, their savings cannot cover their investments which means they have to borrow from abroad to bridge the gap. This year their CAD will reach negative 3% at the very least, which is already putting pressure on the rupee.
2. In fact, depreciation of the rupee has been constant and ongoing for many decades. We should expect it to continue. So even if India were to grow 8% for 25 years, their GDP will be lower than $20 trillion due to constant depreciation.
3. There are serious questions raised whether Indian authorities are lying about growth figures. The post-2011 period has seen a dramatic slowdown in every sector except the GDP statistics. Suspicious.
2. In fact, depreciation of the rupee has been constant and ongoing for many decades. We should expect it to continue. So even if India were to grow 8% for 25 years, their GDP will be lower than $20 trillion due to constant depreciation.
3. There are serious questions raised whether Indian authorities are lying about growth figures. The post-2011 period has seen a dramatic slowdown in every sector except the GDP statistics. Suspicious.
@mossen bro from what I understand the more currency devaluation the more restrictive it place on import (aside from crucial commodities like oil and food) to hoard dollars, with it the uncompetitiveness of its industries. So they have to rely more on remittances to cover up the deficit, like I said before they're relying to much on exporting themselves out of poverty as policy rather than industrialization.
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