India incursion and Chinese standoff at Dolam, Bhutan

There's no need for China to initiate any conflict.

It looks like Bhutan wants Indian troops out of the Bhutan-China dispute.

"A senior official in Thimphu told me that the Bhutanese government had requested India to withdraw its forces from Doklam so that China, too, would pull back its troops. India reportedly reduced the number of its forces, but there was no complete withdrawal. Subsequently, Bhutan refused to make any anti-China statements in India’s support."

The full article along with an analysis is here in the strategy section

https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/bhutan-dangerous-liaison.t8163/

I don't think India will heed the Bhutan gov request. India only use Bhutan as a pretext to occupy Doklam.
By doing it she poke the dragon in the eye and dare them to act
In doing so India distract their people from the shortcoming of their failed economic policy

Apparently they over promise to win election but bad policy scuttle their economic miracle plan
What a better way to distract people than military adventure See the Indian press relish the idea of pay back time for their 62 defeat even if their stomach is empty

Nobody want war but the longer this standoff drag on the more chance that it has to be resolved by force
Bhutan has no role to play unless they want to save face
China is preoccupy with Korea and BRIC meeting, National congress . But once this is over She has no choice but to act
Or else her credibility will suffer and in dangerous world it is the end of their political capital
China enjoy long peace because it pay with the blood of Korean war

Hendrik_2000 said:

I don't think India will heed the Bhutan gov request. India only use Bhutan as a pretext to occupy Doklam.
By doing it she poke the dragon in the eye and dare them to act
In doing so India distract their people from the shortcoming of their failed economic policy

Apparently they over promise to win election but bad policy scuttle their economic miracle plan
What a better way to distract people than military adventure See the Indian press relish the idea of pay back time for their 62 defeat even if their stomach is empty

Nobody want war but the longer this standoff drag on the more chance that it has to be resolved by force
Bhutan has no role to play unless they want to save face
China is preoccupy with Korea and BRIC meeting, National congress . But once this is over She has no choice but to act
Or else her credibility will suffer and in dangerous world it is the end of their political capital
China enjoy long peace because it pay with the blood of Korean war

Click to expand...

I would agree that Modi needs a distraction.

The demonetisation which caused chaos last year looks like failure because the analyses indicate that almost all the black money was successfully laundered. Yet Modi has convinced the average Indian that it was successful.

The GST reform last month was way too rushed and will cause a lot of pain in the short-run. Theoretically, the GST reform should be a positive for India in the long-run, but if India doesn't fix its labour laws to make legal employment viable, then it likely means jobs will be destroyed whilst no new jobs are created.

Plus both India and China have a similar sized population and a job creation target of roughly 1million jobs per month. Whilst China meets this target, Modi has presided over the last 2 years where job creation is only 2% of what India needs. Article below



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And I would disagree that China needs to use force.

China can keep up the pressure until there is a Bhutan-India rupture, where Bhutan requests India to withdraw the army from Doklam. China just needs to be ready to act, as it will be a similar scenario to when Nepal came under Indian economic pressure. Then Nepal decided it needed a truly neutral position between China and India.

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If Bhutan publicly asks India to remove its soldiers, what choice does India have? Think of the international coalition that Bhutan and China could gather against India.

Does India have enough influence in the Bhutanese Army (which India trained and pays for), to effect a coup against the King and the democratically elected parliament? And if they did, would they do it? This is something that Bhutan thinks about. And if the potential coup fails, it would almost certainly drive the Bhutan government into seeking overt Chinese support.

So I don't see India having any choice but to remove its soldiers if Bhutan publicly makes that request

Jura said:

A: Dong Lang is indisputably China's territory. The Indian side illegally crossed the boundary under the pretext of its so-called concern about China's construction of road. This excuse is ridiculous, the nature of this incident is serious and the fact is there for all to see. The only prerequisite and basis for resolving this incident is that the Indian side immediately and unconditionally withdraw all the trespassing personnel and equipment.

We can imagine that if we connive in this absurd logic of India, does it mean that if someone detests the activities in his neighbor's house, he can break into the neighbor's house at will and linger in it? If we follow the logic of India, does it mean that if China believes that the large-scale infrastructure construction in the boundary area on the part of India poses a threat to China's security, it can be justified for us to send troops to cross the boundary to enter India to stop it? If so, the whole world would descend into chaos and the norms governing international relations will become useless. So far, China has exercised utmost restraint and we can show our utmost patience and tolerance, but we hope the Indian side can adopt the responsible attitude of abiding by the law and respecting the fact that a major country should have to make reasonable and wise judgment and decision.

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Its about god damn time China is actually using logic to hit back instead of just repeat the 1 liner that "China wants peace" and all the other BS.

This to us is very basic rebuttal, but I think that is a HUGE step forward for Chinese's press reply, bravo

AndrewS said:

I would agree that Modi needs a distraction.

The demonetisation which caused chaos last year looks like failure because the analyses indicate that almost all the black money was successfully laundered. Yet Modi has convinced the average Indian that it was successful.

The GST reform last month was way too rushed and will cause a lot of pain in the short-run. Theoretically, the GST reform should be a positive for India in the long-run, but if India doesn't fix its labour laws to make legal employment viable, then it likely means jobs will be destroyed whilst no new jobs are created.

Plus both India and China have a similar sized population and a job creation target of roughly 1million jobs per month. Whilst China meets this target, Modi has presided over the last 2 years where job creation is only 2% of what India needs. Article below

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And I would disagree that China needs to use force.

China can keep up the pressure until there is a Bhutan-India rupture, where Bhutan requests India to withdraw the army from Doklam. China just needs to be ready to act, as it will be a similar scenario to when Nepal came under Indian economic pressure. Then Nepal decided it needed a truly neutral position between China and India.

---

If Bhutan publicly asks India to remove its soldiers, what choice does India have? Think of the international coalition that Bhutan and China could gather against India.

Does India have enough influence in the Bhutanese Army (which India trained and pays for), to effect a coup against the King and the democratically elected parliament? And if they did, would they do it? And if it fails, it would almost certainly drive the Bhutan government into seeking overt Chinese support.

So I don't see India having any choice but to remove its soldiers if Bhutan makes that request

Click to expand...

Yes I agree, India is also getting out of control with its debt



Their banking sector bad debt is at all time high, investment is at 13 year low, something is not doing well in their economy and the bad result will trickle down very soon, so something has to be done to unify the peopel.

AndrewS said:

There's no need for China to initiate any conflict.

It looks like Bhutan wants Indian troops out of the Bhutan-China dispute.

"A senior official in Thimphu told me that the Bhutanese government had requested India to withdraw its forces from Doklam so that China, too, would pull back its troops. India reportedly reduced the number of its forces, but there was no complete withdrawal. Subsequently, Bhutan refused to make any anti-China statements in India’s support."

The full article along with an analysis is here in the strategy section

https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/bhutan-dangerous-liaison.t8163/

Click to expand...

AndrewS said:

In summary, the Bhutanese government was ready to cede disputed areas in Doklam to China in exchange for a larger area elsewhere. Article below.

So it seems likely that Bhutan did NOT request the Indian army to intervene in Doklam.

In the Tri-Junction Entanglement, What Does Bhutan Want?
BY P. STOBDAN ON 11/07/2017

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People in Bhutan seem to think it is time to resolve the dispute with China once and for all, without pandering to Indian interests.
...
People in Bhutan think that India has for too long prevented their country from normalising diplomatic ties and negotiating a border settlement with China. India, on its part, fears that any boundary deal will not only impact Indian security but also impinge on its own negotiating position with China on the boundary issue. From Bhutan’s perspective, India’s position is adversely impacting its ties with China. This is the main issue that is leading to complexities and confusion, including the standoff at Doklam.
...
Bhutan’s shares a 470-km-long border with China and according to some reports, over 25% of this border remained disputed for decades. China wanted Bhutan to cede a 269-square-km area in west Bhutan, including Dramana, Shakhatoe and Sinchulung, in exchange for which it had offered to give Bhutan a 495-square-km area in Pasamlung and Jakarlung.
...

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it's interesting
AndrewS
is able to pull Indian links containing what sounds like an anti-Indian narrative; those links lead to

as far as I noticed

AndrewS said:

There's no need for China to initiate any conflict.

It looks like Bhutan wants Indian troops out of the Bhutan-China dispute.

"A senior official in Thimphu told me that the Bhutanese government had requested India to withdraw its forces from Doklam so that China, too, would pull back its troops. India reportedly reduced the number of its forces, but there was no complete withdrawal. Subsequently, Bhutan refused to make any anti-China statements in India’s support."

The full article along with an analysis is here in the strategy section

https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/bhutan-dangerous-liaison.t8163/

Click to expand...

If this is true, cannot happen soon enough. The solution to this problem was always with Bhutan.

sanblvd said:

Yes I agree, India is also getting out of control with its debt

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Their banking sector bad debt is at all time high, investment is at 13 year low, something is not doing well in their economy and the bad result will trickle down very soon, so something has to be done to unify the peopel.

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We can see Modi is retreating into populist policies that play with his Hindu-supremacist support base eg. cow worship and Muslim baiting

And yes, the Indian media is playing up the evil backstabbing China angle to unify the country.

The first time this happened was back during the China-India war in 1962. They had to blame China, as India might have fractured into lots of little countries, if the people known that Nehru started a war which he then proceeded to lose. And since then, India has been trapped in covering up this debacle.

References below. The Hindustan Times and the Times of India are the 2 most respected English language newspapers in India.

Leaked China war report blames govt, military
Hindustan Times

A controversial report that blames India's first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru for the defeat in the 1962 Indo-China war was made public by Australian journalist Neville Maxwell on Tuesday. The Henderson Brooks report – still classified 'top secret' by the government—blames Nehru's policies for India's worst military defeat, HT has learnt.

The leak, coming a month before the general elections, couldn't have come at a worse time for the ruling Congress. The BJP –which has already made dynastic rule by the Nehru-Gandhi family a poll issue – demanded that the report be declassified immediately.

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In U-turn, Modi govt rules out release of Henderson Brooks report
The Times of India

NEW DELHI: In a marked U-turn from the earlier stand taken by BJP, the Modi government has firmly ruled out the release of the classified Henderson Brooks report into India's humiliating military debacle against China in 1962.

"This (Henderson Brooks report) is a top-secret document and has not been declassified so far. Release of this report, fully or partially, or disclosure of any information related to this report, would not be in national interest," said defence and finance minister Arun Jaitley, in a written reply to a question in Rajya Sabha on Tuesday.

The Henderson Brooks report squarely blames the then Jawarharlal Nehru government's ill-conceived and ill-timed "Forward Policy", without proper intelligence or adequate military preparation, for India's abject defeat in 1962.

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Jura said:

it's interesting
AndrewS
is able to pull Indian links containing what sounds like an anti-Indian narrative; those links lead to

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

as far as I noticed

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Looks at the biographies of the founders of "The Wire" newspaper.

It was founded by the former Chief editor of "The Hindu", one of India's leading English language newspapers. Previously he was at "The Times of India", and those are the 2 most respected English-language newspapers in India.

Remember that India is so much more fragmented than China, and takes a lot more to hold itself together. We're talking hundreds of languages, religions, races, cultures.

Yet the dominant ideology is one based around a diverse "Hindu" religion, which has very little to offer the non-Hindus which account for 1 in 5 people in India.

Where would they fit into the Caste/Class/Community structure?

In comparison, China is intrinsically more cohesive, given:

1. Its ideology is a mix of Confucian meritocracy for all, Confucian hierarchy, Communist equality and Buddhism/Taoism
2. Two millenia with a single written language, and now a single spoken language as well.
3. Ethnic groups only account for 1 in 11 people in China, and most of those are already largely assimilated.