What is RAW? I havn't heard that term before.
Impact of China's rise in the world - Long term predictions (30-50 years)
- Thread starter tamsen_ikard
- Start date
What is RAW? I havn't heard that term before.
That’s because any discussion of china’s rise could not be a seriously one unless the range of possible environments that china will face during its rise are carefully and coolly considered in something other than patriotically chest thumping, or ethnocentrically wish thinking, way.
Yes.
But here's something else to consider.
The average IQ in India is supposedly 82.
There are literally no suitable jobs for people with that sort of IQ, as per the studies.
That implies half of India's population is completely useless
In comparison, China and other Confucian societies like Japan or Korea are near the top (average IQ 104-108)
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In terms of practical effects, I'll use an example from Jordan Petersen.
Petersen recounts training a low-IQ person on a task. After a day of training, they have bare mastery of that task.
In comparison, Petersen expects his university students (average IQ ~120) to master that task within 10minutes.
If you disagree with the IQ scoring, then use the PISA results conducted by the UN, which measure basic maths, english and science.
On the last round of PISA tests in 2009 with Indian participation, India came second last in the global rankings.
India hasn't come back since.
I've done a few posts previously on how child malnutrition and educational standards in India have somehow gotten worse in the past 10 years.
It's difficult to see how India will move past the middle-income trap or sustain fast growth when India's human capital is so low.
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Then if we have a quick look at Vietnam, by all accounts, it looks like China some 10-20 years ago.
And if we look at the PISA results for Vietnam, it looks like they are edging towards the Confucian grouping as well.
I also struggle to see how Vietnam will ever be overtly against China.
Vietnam is just too vulnerable to:
1. pressure from the entire Chinese military on the Northern border
2. blockade from Hainan and the bases in the South China Seas
3. political isolation from its landward neighbours Laos and Cambodia
4. economic pressure from China which is Vietnam's largest trading partner
Vietnam does not have the luxury to treat China as a permanent enemy for all the reasons you laid out. Totally agree
A future Chinese-Vietnamese confrontation is an Anglo, or in this case an Indian wet dream. There are border/territory disputes, but these will be solved amicably. Both nations have a lot in common, and have common enemies.
The Sino-Vietnamese war was a different era, with both nations having more hot headed leaders. Things are different now.
The Sino-Vietnamese war was a different era, with both nations having more hot headed leaders. Things are different now.
I'm sorry China had very calm and cool-headed leader back then and since. Vietnam, on the other hand, had very hot-headed leaders back then, and got carried away by their victory against the American, believing in the myth of their power and started throwing around their weight and invading neighboring countries.
They were taught a hard lesson by the cool-headed Chinese leader, and rightly so. I'm sure the lesson has been keenly learned and Vietnam has been much cool-headed since.
I have noticed various comments on India mentioning dalits as non-hindus. This is factually incorrect. Dalits are very much hindus (a vast majority of them. There is a small minority or buddhist, muslim or Christian dalits). Also dalits have been voting for the BJP overwhelmingly (quite contrary to expectations).
Secondly, it is incorrect to assume, as some commentators here seem to think, that muslims/dalits/tribals will become a majority population in India. That is a standard right wing trope in India and far from the truth.
Secondly, it is incorrect to assume, as some commentators here seem to think, that muslims/dalits/tribals will become a majority population in India. That is a standard right wing trope in India and far from the truth.