Impact of China's rise in the world - Long term predictions (30-50 years)

gadgetcool5 said:

As far as India, it's form of government is not that important.

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That's ridiculous. That's like saying the direction a car drives in is not important.

gadgetcool5 said:

What's important is that there are more Indians born every year than in the US, Europe, Japan, Russia and China combined (!).

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That is important. It shows they could run out of food/resources, bury large numbers of people in poverty and either need global aid or start a war they don't have a shadow of a chance to win.

gadgetcool5 said:

India will soon be by far the world's most populous entity united under a single political banner.

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No matter India's population, they have never been united, for reasons already highlighted to you by AndrewS.

gadgetcool5 said:

Even if they are slow and inefficient, by pure demographic power they will have huge weight in the world.

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Only one to drag the world down for need of aid, never otherwise because Indians have never shown competency at any population level. This strategy (if it is their strategy) is comparable to an impoverished mother birthing 6 kids and giving none of them education or support hoping to beat the middle class neighbors who have 3 kids all of whom are being educated, stimulated and morally developed to the highest standards that the parents can provide.

form of government is nominal, which classes and interests actually govern is more important.

The notion that if the form of government is democratic, then the everyone gets a voice is idealistic and unrealistic. In reality, diverse interests coalesce into interest blocks that can command enough votes for these interests to rule. The voices that are not in the governing block still gets a vote, but they affect little because they will be out voted.

What are the interest blocks in india? which one does the BJP represent? Is it well aligned, somewhat aligned, or not aligned with the needs of efficient industrialization.

Richard Santos said:

The notion that if the form of government is democratic, then the everyone gets a voice is idealistic and unrealistic. In reality, diverse interests coalesce into interest blocks that can command enough votes for these interests to rule. The voices that are not in the governing block still gets a vote, but they affect little because they will be out voted.

What are the interest blocks in india? which one does the BJP represent? Is it well aligned, somewhat aligned, or not aligned with the needs of efficient industrialization.

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From my perspective, the BJP has 2 main planks.

1. Hindu nationalism
2. The interests of business (primarily the higher Hindu castes)

That leaves out the Muslims, Dalits and Tribals who are or soon will outnumber the Hindus.

There are studies showing that malnutrition and education have gotten worse over the 10 year period just prior to the pandemic.
I was rather surprised given that India has seen moderate economic growth during this time period.

But it makes sense given the engrained anti-Muslim and anti-Dalit bias the BJP shows towards non-Hindus and the caste/language/religious divisions.

Efficient industrialisation requires the entire population to reach a minimum baseline in terms of basic education and health.
So I don't see the BJP being effective given the systemic discrimination practiced against the majority of India's population.

Plus I see higher caste Hindu individuals frequently having a blind irrational optimism (eg. India Shining, India defeats COVID, etc) at odds with reality.

Basically talking too much *** but delivering results that leave much to be desired.

hindu nationalism is a vote getting strategy, not an interest that the party represents. If BJP represent upper class hindus, ( i am not saying i agree with it) the legitimate question is which aspect of upper class hindu interest must they serve to retain the support of these Hindus?

Do those specific interests require policies that would stand in the way of broader industrialization? which necessarily lead to enlarged middle class?

One could generally assume a government that really is beholden to the interest of currently privileged class in preventing their privilege from being diluted by more of the currently underprivileged classes from rising up in the works will have limited long term success in industrializing a whole nation.

To successfully industrialize a whole nation, a government must rely on the interest of a large segment of the population, preferably the majority, to rise up in the world in terms of income, leisure. and influence.

the practical difficulty is every government lie, or at least is much less economical with misrepresentations, purposed omissions and slippery demagogic languages than with truths, so no one will say I stand for keeping the middle class down.

So it takes some careful observation to discern what is the real interest a government is beholden to.

India's heavy population has not been a positive on anything in their country. Is their economy proportionally the same to the US or even China? No. So it doesn't mean the more people, the more prosperous. Keep buying the Western propaganda that China and India having the most people is a race to something good because it's actually the opposite. That's why the West perpetuates this lie. Or maybe it's the logic that because the US has reusable rockets somehow China has to give up its space program because it doesn't have any. Yes Indians are similar in mentality to the Americans like when they wanted the world to outlaw the J-20 because China wasn't a democracy so the Chinese people didn't okay it. No, they just hated the idea China had a stealth fight and they didn't. India having a larger population means it gets exclusive advantages over everyone else...? It's all a bunch of gymnastic bull just to stop China because of their own selfish envy.

More people means their people doesn’t have to be as rich individually for their country to wield comparable clout.

Richard Santos said:

More people means their people doesn’t have to be as rich individually for their country to wield comparable clout.

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They can have clout in thier region without doing the heavy lifting of economic transformation

Neighbors are all much smaller then India

A poor country with a lot of people is still a poor country. What is India going to do? Invade their neighbors to take their resources to feed the people and economy? Yes the bully option.