So..Now we know that the PLAN now has access to shipyard that can build an aircraft carrier of some type. I really do wish the PLAN was not so secreretive and would give us a hint about what they will do about their "phantom" CV program.
I think work on an LHD will start right away. It will be helped by the experienced gained from Type 071. Just like the Type 071 was designed with cues from San Antonio, I expect this LHD (on this forum it's been speculated to be Type 081) to take cues from the Wasp class and the Japanese Hyuga class. Maybe something in the 30,000 ton range -- capable of carrying 30 helicopters. I expect a navalized WZ-10 to be in-the-works now.
I expect this ship (maybe even a pair together) to be in the water within 2 years (first half of 2010) and start operating a year after that.
After the first (maybe pair) of Type 081 is finished, the Jiangnan Shipyard will begin to build a wholly indigenous carrier (maybe a pair), something in the 50-60,000 ton range. I expect it to take design cues from the Nimitz, a very successful design. Since China's naval flanker is just about ready for production, the crew will be able to train for carrier operations first.
The carrier (maybe Type 091?) will be launched around 2013. Meanwhile, serial production would have already taken place for the destroyer escort (probably the one we are seeing taking shape now) and the next generation SSN, so the carrier can achieve limited operations shortly after launch.
I expect that by 2015, the first carrier group (or maybe even a pair) will be fully operational.
Varyag never made it to any stage (despite original intentions -- that's why the naval flankers are ready so early) because too many difficulties were found to make it even minimally useful.