.....
What sort & how many CVs will the Chinese have if any???
What type of aircraft will they have?
When if ever will we see such a ship?
..
crawl - walk - run
at first they will pretty sure don't start with big sticks. It is a great investment, and a failure would be very expansiv;
and at first they would copy a proofed design, as I think.
Now chinese naval ingeneerts studied the design of MELBOURNE, KIEW - MINSK an VARJAG.
The
VARJAG, indeed, is to be finished - as a
trainee carrier like a lot of people suspect.
In my view the ship could be seaworthy in 2009/2010 - and the first crews could be well up in 2014/2015 ...
for the birds:
usable should be
JL-15 trainee and light weight ground attack fighters,
WZ-10 attack and the
Z-8 (SA 321Ja Super Frelon) Multirole
Helicopter (ASW) and
KA-31 AEW Helos - and SU-33, but those not before 2014/2015.
But after that step?
The need of PLAN is
= support of amphibious operations (local air shield)
= escort of trade ships like tankers
= at least counter other carriers in case of conflict with a great super power.
Crawl - walk - run:
To minimize the risk,
at first indegenious design I'll prefer a small Carrier, to operate
JL-15 trainee and light weight ground attack fighters,
WZ-10 attack and the
Z-8 (SA 321Ja Super Frelon) Multirole
Helicopter for support und transport operations. Also ASW and
KA-31 AEW Helos
to support a local air shield.
This would be a
amphibious carrier.
The carrier could be a derivate of the proofed MELBOURNE design, including modern engines (diesels), catapulte and angled deck. This little carrier also in political view is no a big thread to SE-Asien neighbours, so they would accept this kind of carrier without political rejection.
To operate the JL-15 would be indeed also a training for using big fighters like the (suspected) SU-33 with the future "big stick".
I'll prefer 2 or 3 ships of that class, starting to be build in 2009/2010 and finished in 2014/2015 (production continuing).
The next step - this is more speculation - should be for escort-operations.
In my opinion the KIEW / MINSK-Design is pretty sure a famous escort-carrier.
There (modernized) weapons (including ASW und AEW helos like the KA-31) and - if a catapult would be installed - the possibilty to operate carrier based fighters (J-XX? - double engined J-10 ?) and carrier based AEW planes would make a great escort service.
I also prefer 2 - 3 ships of that class, starting to be build in 2012 and finished in 2016/2017 up to 2020.
only as
the last step I see carriers like bd popeye postet - but (indeed) with angled deck and catapulte!!
or
starting to be build in 2015 or later and not operationale before 2020. If chinese ingeneers want to work with the experience of the first carriers, they would'nt start to design this ship before 2015 - better 2020 I think.
I don't speculate about the fighters and helos, usable at this time ...
So in 2020 / 2025 the first chinese carrier fleet could include:
1 trainee carrier (Varjag) - operating JL 15, SU-33, Z-8 ASW and KA-31 AEW
3 to 5 amphibous carriers (Melbourne derivate) - operating JL-15, WZ-10, Z-8, KA-31 AEW
3 escort carriers (Kiew derivate) operating Z-8 ASW, KA-31 AEW (if catapulte also JL-15, J-xx)
1 indegenious "big stick" - operating SU-33, J-xx, ASW and AEW helos and aircrafts.