Help with Military paper and presentation...

The theme of the paper is "A Matter of Time: Taiwan's Eroding Military Advantage". So I think the paper would compare current PRC-ROC miltiary match-up vs. future PRC-ROC military match-up. Speculations on who'd be elected in Taiwan and what their foreign policy is in relation to future ROC military procurement would prolly be legit for the topic.

Geographically, island nations like Briton, Japan, Taiwan (ROC), some parts of Greece, etc. have enjoyed a defensive advantage by sea. An invader must win both air (modern era) and sea (both modern and ancient) before they can land an invasion force. Briton survived WW2 because they won the aerial battle of Briton. The KMT regime survived in Taiwan/ROC because the PRC didn't have much of a navy in its early days.

However, in the modern era, the above mentioned island nations have lost some of its "distance" advantage, because they're all relatively close to the mainland. North Korea, with its limited missile technology, can send a ballistic missile over Tokyo. In the very unlikely scenario where Briton and France turn hostile on each other, the French could launch LACM's directly over the English channel and hit London. Taiwan, is also within LACM range from mainland China.

In WW2, when the Japanese wanted to attack Pearl Harbor, they had to send a carrier fleet all the way over. Today, if the PRC wanted to attack Pearl Harbor, with exception of ICBM's, they'd also need to send a fleet FAR into the Pacific to bring Pearl Harbor within range of conventional weapons. Before they even get there the USN will prolly intercept the PLAN fleet and sink it.

Taiwan, on the other hand, sits 131-180 km off-shore from Mainland China. What does that mean? If the PLA modify the YJ-62 or even C-803 for land-attack, they can haul them in on trucks to the coast and launch them at Taipei. Taiwan is a small island with limited number of important infrastructure targets. It'd be within PLA's capability (in the near future) to send a saturated missile attack and take out Taiwan's power generation, transportation, and water supply.

Although the ROCA has some fortified air stripes in the Eastern mountains, the majority of its air and naval bases are on the exposed western side. Those will be high priority targets, and once taken out, it'd reduce ROCAF's operational capability by a large margain. So what if your fighters are better and pilots better trained? If you can only get 8 off the ground and the enemy sends in 80, you're screwed.

Even if ROCA purchase additional PAC-3's, I doubt they can effectively protect major assets. The PAC-3 system have limited number of ready-to-fire missiles, and at the rate of PRC's military budget growth, I think the PLA can prolly buy 10x as many missiles to lob over.

Until the ROC obtains something like a laser missile defense system, that can quickly cycle through targets and destroy incoming missiles by the dozens (this system also does NOT exist today, only in R&D prototype), I don't think they'd have the capability to defend against PLA LACM attacks.

The KMT leadership knew very well that, in the long term, they cannot maintain a conventional miltiary edge over the PRC. This is why they had a nuclear weapons program, which was shut down due to US pressure.

i doubt that military option is even viable to China. for the sake of arguments: assume PLA manage to attain air and sea superioty, manage to land and hold beach head, successfully deter an American intervention and conquer the whole island. there still will be the issue of actually ruling and running the place. taiwan natives will no doubt put up an insurgency against the occupation, plus the beijing will ultimately have to rebuild Taiwanese economy, otherwise it would just wasted money and lives conqueringa piece of useless rock. And all that is assuming beijing can actually defeat taiwan/u.s in a military engagement. Therefore, IMO, even if Taiwan came out with a formal declaration of independence (which it will almost defintely not, because it will gain them absolutely nothing except the world's scorn) , the most beijing will do is lob a few missiles or even pretend to put up a blockade, nothing on the scale of an invasion will be attempted.

As a chinese, the best solution i can hope for is that both government put down the pretenses as the sole legal entity of all chinese, forget PRC and ROC, just come together in some sort of confederation simply called China.

I have taken all of your suggestions into account and I will be adding a new section to my paper entitled, The Wildcard: The United States, in which I discuss possible American actions in the event of conflict, and what might be the response by the United States to various scenarios.

kunmingren said:

As a chinese, the best solution i can hope for is that both government put down the pretenses as the sole legal entity of all chinese, forget PRC and ROC, just come together in some sort of confederation simply called China.

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It's probably safe to say that the PRC will never put down the pretense of being the sole lega entity of "China", the only acceptable option to the Chinese leadership is essentially Taiwan being brought into the fold.

Regarding the previous point about an economic trade alliance making military conflict nearly impossible (or not nearly worth the benefit) a good example to look at would be the European Union; which at first was arguably designed to make war between France and Germany impossible, and obviously worked very well in that aspect. PRC/ROC seem to be heading towards that sort of economic integration, the tricky part is how to integrate politically, keeping people on either side of the strait happy.

On one hand you have the Chinese viewpoint which isn't exactly happy with the prospect of a Taiwan that is somewhat autonomous, you can bet it wouldn't be a "One Country/Two Governments" system because the ideology between the two are so different. In addition you have to deal with other Taiwanese concerns such as the writing system (A bigger deal to the Taiwanese than it may appear) among other things. It may seem relatively minor but if China does not address these issues that are important to the Taiwanese, unification will take quite a bit of time.

From what I see I get the feeling that China is simply "encouraging" Taiwan not to declare independence right now when the military balance isn't as absurd, and continue its path towards economic integration. When it gets up to the point that both economically and militarily there is no comparison, it will be too late to declare (official) independence anyway.

In an analysis of military strategy it is definitely worthwhile to consider the motive and goals of the attacking force (PRC in this case) because regardless of how you slice it, political goals can greatly determine what tactics will be used. If for example in scenario A you have Taiwan declaring independence, feeling it has little to lose given the imminent economic isolation of a growing China and lack of entry in the ASEAN alliance, then it is possible that China would attack to "save face" and "teach a lesson", thereby reducing inhibitions against hitting civilian targets and infrastructure. An insurgency would be least effective in this situation because without any reason to gain "hearts and minds" there's nothing to stop the PLAAF from simply carpet bombing a city.

If in scenario B you have a Chinese government that is more rational (Which is what I believe, despite often seen assertions of "We must save face" on the internet the government debatably puts economic higher on the scale) then you would see strikes primarily directed at military installations and highways, power stations, but probably avoiding targets such as water purification systems or nuclear power generators. Also, if goodwill and diplomacy isn't played correctly by the PRC government then it is possible that there would be a urban insurgency that would last quite a while within major population centers, especially if the PRC is unwilling to simply wipe a city off the map.

In short, there are many variables to consider, political goals being a very important one.

Pointblank said:

I have taken all of your suggestions into account and I will be adding a new section to my paper entitled, The Wildcard: The United States, in which I discuss possible American actions in the event of conflict, and what might be the response by the United States to various scenarios.

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Don't bother. The United States will never go into a major shooting war with China, not over Taiwan. It just isn't worth it to them. The level of economic integration, coupled with the nuclear threat on both sides, means that the USA and PRC will be in bed together for a long time to come.

It's politically impossible for America to go to war with their major economic ally over a piece of rock most Americans couldn't find on a map. Look at the storm in Iraq over a few thousand dead, do you really think America will risk tens of thousands more in a naval battle in the Strait of Taiwan? Of course not. The politics of American democracy make such a thing impossible.

Even if the PRC were to launch a full-scale invasion right this second with no explanation, the most the United States would do is launch an air mission or two and then say that it tried its best. And America and China would go on trading. More likely, Washington will make a lot of noise condemning China, push for sanctions in the UN that it knows will be vetoed, and then go along as if nothing happened.