Help with Military paper and presentation...

mobydog said:

No you are not.. read the TRA again. No way did the act says anything about defending Taiwan..or send troops? It only says " maintain the capacity to resist " and even that does not guarantee it, and could mean anything. Sell arms perhaps.

I only problem will the Act be considered void if Independence is declared by Taiwan.

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If you look at the end of Section 2 and look at Section 3, it spells it out for you pretty well. I don't know how "the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary" without using military means. You can guarantee one thing. If China uses military force to try to take Taiwan, the US military will show up and will be angry. The USA will not allow China to use military force without the severest of consequences.

The only caveat of course is something like what Violet Oboe describes. This is another outcome. Of course this still means the people of Taiwan still hold the keys. Like I said, it will ultimately be up to the people of Taiwan whether or not they "re-unite" with the mainland or not. And if this happens, in this way, the U.S. wouldn't care anymore. And the Taiwan Relations Act at that point would be null and void.

And I'm not so sure Taiwan will ever choose to unify with the mainland however. Despite all the talk of "organizations" and pro-unification parties, I actually don't see that trend occuring at all. They may or may not. We'll have to wait and see.

Sea Dog said:

If you look at the end of Section 2 and look at Section 3, it spells it out for you pretty well. I don't know how "the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary" without using military means. You can guarantee one thing. If China uses military force to try to take Taiwan, the US military will show up and will be angry. The USA will not allow China to use military force without the severest of consequences.

The only caveat of course is something like what Violet Oboe describes. This is another outcome. Of course this still means the people of Taiwan still hold the keys. Like I said, it will ultimately be up to the people of Taiwan whether or not they "re-unite" with the mainland or not. And if this happens, in this way, the U.S. wouldn't care anymore. And the Taiwan Relations Act at that point would be null and void.

And I'm not so sure Taiwan will ever choose to unify with the mainland however. Despite all the talk of "organizations" and pro-unification parties, I actually don't see that trend occuring at all. They may or may not. We'll have to wait and see.

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the thing is that 80% of Taiwanese don't want to unify. Even KMT supporters are maintaining their stance because they don't want to risk getting bombed by PRC and want to use China for their own economical advantage. They enjoy their de facto independence and just pay the occassional lip service to PRC. This also tends to be the brighter section of the population. The only condition I see a reunification is if China develops into an economy the size of USA, has some form of democracy and Taiwan is just totally dependent on China. But that won't come for a long time.

Guys, try to stay on track. We are talking about how would a war be conducted by both Taiwan and the PRC, who has the upper hand, and not how will a war start. We are already assuming that a war already has started.

The member has a good point here. Discuss how the war would be conducted by the arguments he established in the first post.

bd popeye moderator

Of course China will have to extend her economic and financial power further and also demonstrate this newfound wealth and glory in an awesome way to the world in the 2008 Beijing Olympics and the 2010 Shanghai Worldexpo. Nevertheless the main obstacle for unification is the psychology of the Taiwanese masses as tphuang correctly mentions.

China has essentially enough power and wealth (money already today, PLA will certainly be ready around 2009/10) but China lacks a viable propaganda strategy and a charismatic leader who can execute this strategy with convincing credibility.

The project of achieving ´One China´has to be made ´sexy´for the average Taiwanese: Mr. Li in Kaoshiung or Mr. Fung in Tainan has to be convinced that unification is certainly good for his purse but that belonging to the nation certainly on the way to fulfill her destiny as a global power in the 21st century will make him feel much better too. This kind of marketing/advertising campaign has yet to be developed by the CPC. A quick look into history shows that successful re-unification campaigns (mainly in central europe) drew heavily on the merging of two powerful ideological motives: 1. Nationalism and 2. Economics. Both have to be masterfully played out if China wants to achieve her aim since crude intimidation (1995/96 missile tests) and economic threats are simply not effective.

Unfourtunately Hu Jintao although surely being a decent administrator is certainly not the type of charismatic leader who could convince the taiwanese people with a few compelling deeds, words and gestures where they economically, culturally, mentally and even genetically inevitably belong.

The next chinese leader of the fifth generation who will take power in 2012/13 will have intricately to know how he conducts the ´great reunification show´ or he will go down in history as the failure who put eventually China on the disastrous path of disintegration.

Well, history will tell Mr. Fu whether something decisive will happen in the 8 - 10 years regarding the reintegration of Taiwan but the situation is certainly changing constantly and the dynamics is obviously headed only in one direction.

Perceiving how the much touted arms deals with the US are slowly but inevitably turning into illusory mirages illustrates only that policy planners in Washington have already quietly acknowledged that Taiwan will play a definitely limited role in the US future pacific strategy of maintaining hegemony in the region. Correspondingly there will be no 8 SSK´s for ROCN in 2015 (perhaps some ´yellow paper subs´for Ah Bian) and the prospective Block 52 F-16 deal went also in deepfreeze lately. All these signs point into the direction of some kind of strategic US disengagement since most DoD and State analysts already regard Taiwan as an embarrassing liability.

Violet Oboe said:

Perceiving how the much touted arms deals with the US are slowly but inevitably turning into illusory mirages illustrates only that policy planners in Washington have already quietly acknowledged that Taiwan will play a definitely limited role in the US future pacific strategy of maintaining hegemony in the region. Correspondingly there will be no 8 SSK´s for ROCN in 2015 (perhaps some ´yellow paper subs´for Ah Bian) and the prospective Block 52 F-16 deal went also in deepfreeze lately. All these signs point into the direction of some kind of strategic US disengagement since most DoD and State analysts already regard Taiwan as an embarrassing liability.

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Taiwan is not an embarassing liability for the United States. It is a valueable asset with some risk attachted. Taiwan serves as a strategic check on China, overall stunting its strategic growth (the biggest service Taiwan gives the US) and serving to slow China's growth to blue water dominance in the East China Sea. Also, Taiwan is a US ally that supports the US internationally (even though it can't do much, considering its "special" status). Finally Taiwan is a big weapons costumer, and the US has gotten billions of dollars from weapons deals with Taiwan and general economic exchange.

But basically my main point is that Taiwan is a major issue between the US and China. If the US simply allows China to come in and take over the island, the US will lose a lot of credibility and will suffer a major strategic defeat. The US isn't willing to let that happen, and I doubt that China is willing to risk it either.

As for your paper Pointblank, the Taiwanese Navy and Air Force have large numbers of Hsiung Feng I and II cruise missles, and smaller numbers of the HS-IIE. All are capable of being air launched, land launched from stationary protected launchers and from ROCN ships. It is believed that at present the ROC has small numbers of the HS-III, which is somewhat like the Sunburn ASM missle on the PLANs Sovremmenys. I think that these missles are a major deterrent for the PLAN, especially because they are based not only on Taiwan but also on outlying islands like Kinmen and Matsu, the Pescadores and some islands to the north of Taiwan whose name I forget. Of course, one missle class is not enough to win the war, but it is elaboration on something Fu Manchu wrote and it will help you write a balanced report.

The US can indeed not afford to damage her credibility by selling Taiwan out for cheap. Of course China has to be prepared to make major concessions to the US regarding Wahingtons interests in Asia e.g. North Korea, Myanmar or the malacca straits. (a deal requires ´do ut des´ from both partners!)

Some slight correction to your assertion that Taiwan is a major weapons customer for US defense corps Finn: The last major deals (we talk about the 1 bn $ + range) are dating back to the late 90´s and as I mentioned earlier expecting new mega deals now and in the coming years will certainly be like ´Waiting for Godot´!

Violet Oboe said:

the situation is certainly changing constantly and the dynamics is obviously headed only in one direction.

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You may kid yourself that is the case....

But that's another story, which we're not allowed to discuss on this forum.

Correspondingly there will be no 8 SSK´s for ROCN in 2015

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Maybe, maybe not. But these are things both of the main political parties in Taiwan want, despite a bit of pacifist nonsense from the Pan-Blues. If the KMT wins the presidency in 2008, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the outstanding parts of the arms bill are pushed through.

The US itself also wants Taiwan to have those submarines.

the prospective Block 52 F-16 deal went also in deepfreeze lately. All these signs point into the direction of some kind of strategic US disengagement since most DoD and State analysts already regard Taiwan as an embarrassing liability.

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Quite the reverse. Washington is fed up with Taiwan engaging in political wrangling because they think the US will protect them anyway. The DoD recommended the sale, but in the end it was decided that authorising would send the wrong message to the politicians in Taipei. It's important they realise that they will have to contribute towards their own defence. If or when they actually get on and pass the revised arms bill, chances are the F-16s will be sold.

Fu I am somewhat surprised by your rabulistic logic but if the US administration actually needs to ´animate´ Taipeh for doing enough for her defence (i.e. paying billions to US defense industry!) that seems to imply that something is really going wrong in Taiwan from the US perspective or even that ´the boat is already sinking´.

Interestingly you are suggesting that Ma Jing-yeoh in 08 will eventually push the sub and F-16 deal (this will cost the taiwanese taxpayer some cheapo 12 bn $ plus!) through the legislative Yuan but you do certainly not mention which motivation he could have for this kind of folly. Perhaps Hu Jintao will tell him at their forthcoming historic meeting in Beijing that if he scraps the deal Taiwan will get 24 bn $ + in investments and subsidies every year from the PRC and that China will additionally guarantee Taiwan´s security.

Of course some will say this is only a speculative pipedream (as you will certainly do, Mr Fu) but in my opinion the time of political volatility and surprising actions will definitely come if the current paralytic deadlock in Taipeh is eventually broken after the 08 elections by a KMT president strongly backed by a KMT/PFP legislative Yuan majority.

Violet Oboe said:

if the US administration actually needs to ´animate´ Taipeh for doing enough for her defence

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There is also the small issue of annoying China and potentially losing trade/diplomatic deals. The sales are worth-the-while in the US' eyes only if Taiwan buys them - they're not worth it if Taiwan gets distracted by something else and puts it off.

China will additionally guarantee Taiwan´s security.

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In that case why should he bother funding the Taiwanese military other than for internal security? Your argument has been pushed before here and each time people have asked the same question - what then is the point in having a military? The answer is always the same - insurance.