Help with Military paper and presentation...

Hi everyone, I am writing a paper and preparing to do a presentation on the article "A Matter of Time: Taiwan's Eroding Military Advantage" by David Shambaugh for university. I am arguing from the point that it is not Taiwan that holds the military advantage at the moment, it is in fact China that has a slight military advantage and that advantage is growing. My arguements are as follows:

1. Taiwan's military hardware is fairly dated, despite the types in service. Most are either early models of the same hardware in American or Western service, or are export versions of the same hardware, while China has equipment that has the full capabilites designed for the hardware. In terms of heavy equipment, Taiwanese equipment has not been updated as much as similar equipment found in the West or hardware found in China.
2. The Chinese had made some major advances in C4I since the article was written in 2000. When the Chinese can't develop the technology to fullfill their needs in time, they are more than willing to go ahead and import it from other nations.
3. The Chinese have recognized that training quality is important. The forces that the Chinese are expected to use in a event of an attack or invasion of Taiwan have recieved priority in terms of training quality, and equipment.
4. A major issue of a possible Chinese invasion is sealift capablities of the PLA. The Chinese are currently either building more capable sealift, and also, have access to the large merchant fleet of the many Chinese cargo companies. The Chinese only have to build up enough sealift to lift the inital forces needed to invade Taiwan, and then use the civilian fleet to sustain an invasion.
5. Another issue is a observation of modern warfare. Modern warfare consumes vast amounts of fuel and ammunition, both of which Taiwan does not have in quantity compared to China. The Chinese will most likely blockade Taiwan and if a conflict is over 2 weeks in length, according to many sources (such as in "Modernizing China's Military: Progress, Problems, and Prospects"), Taiwan only has enough fuel for peacetime for a little over 2 weeks. In a war, the usage of fuel will increase exponentially, meaning that the reserve of 2 weeks will be significantly less, and after the 2nd week of combat, if not before, Taiwan's military forces will have run out of fuel to conduct operations. Taiwan is also far from its sources of weapons and ammunition, compared to China, which has the advantage of being able to produce weapons internally, and access to Russian production of weapons and ammunition.
6. Finally, China has been investing heavily in anti-carrier weapons in the event of the US intervening. Such weapons can either severely cripple American carrier operations or at least make life extremely hard for the Americans. Also, the Chinese hold a economic threat card against the US, in the form of the vast amounts of American dollars the Chinese hold. The Chinese can threaten to dump the American dollars on the international currency market, which will massively devalue the American dollar, and increasing the costs for the US to import goods and raw materials, such as oil, causing a economic crisis in the US. It might be enough incentive for the US to stay out militarily and pay lip service in support to Taiwan.

Any other points I should cover, or should I modify any of my points? Thanks.

Something else that might cover is Taiwan's gradual shift away from militarism, although it's not exactly a new matter, as it has been happening over the last few decades. However, it is still worth noting because it does indeed have impact on the Taiwanese people, less and less regarding the Chinese as "bad", rather displeasure with the Chinese government's stance towards unification.

In addition, the reduction in the tour of duty for conscripts is worth bringing up as well. What with the new 18 month(?) mandatory service, there often isn't enough time for good solid training, as well as any exercises for the inactivated reserve soldiers.

If Taiwan is to follow through with its move towards a smaller, more mobile, and elite military, it cannot do so with reduced training time. Furthermore the economy does not permit military spending sprees, unlike for example Israel which basically gets blank checks from the US, which allows it to afford a large and powerful military.

So basically if you want to reduce troop numbers you have to modernize. If you think you can hold on with inferior equipment you'd better have better training and/or superior numbers. Unfortunately Taiwan has neither. The troops aren't interested in fighting, and aren't eager to start a war. That's arguably a pro of a conscription army, in that the President also knows what the grunts are going through and what the consequences for rash actions will be, and knows that if a disaster occurs it will be personal, and one way or the other there will be uproars.

Of course once the bullets start flying it would be a different matter, I'd say that even the Taiwanese military can be strongly motivated if attacked, but as long as the other options are on the table don't expect Taiwan to provoke a war. It's just not worth it, especially to the college age students in the prime of life who compose most of the front-line troops.

You might want to also consider geographic points. For example the Taiwan strait is 131-180 km wide (depending on location), and Taiwan island itself is roughly 144 km across.

This means, the PLA truck in cruise missiles with 300+ km range and reach just about any point in Taiwan.

Previously, the PLA lacked precision strike capability. It had ballistic missiles that could reach Taiwan, but the accuracy was poor. With advances in military technology, coupled with GPS, satellite imagery, terrain following system, etc., the accuracy issue will be resolved.

And then we have to consider Taiwan is a island with limited number of important strategtic/infrastructure targets. Missile defense systems aren't perfect and I find it highly doubtful, that the ROC miltiary could defeat saturated LACM attacks from the PRC.

You don't need to send your ships and planes to defeat the other guy, if your LACM batteries already destroyed their planes, hangers, runways, ships, docks, and shipyards.

Don't forget the ROCAFs lack of missles. That is a huge issue.

Playing the devil's advocate:

Don't overestimate airpower and cruise missiles. Just look at Kosovo. And it's debatable whether PRC's current capabilities equal NATO's back then.

ROCAF has lots of underground and hardened infrastructure.

Don't forget Quemoy can be quite an obstacle. PLAM either has to bypass it and have a thorn on its side or lose surprise and take it. The island is mountainous and dug-in defenders could be tough to remove.

The Strait has pretty bad weather much of the time. Plus you have the seasonal typhoons. Makes planning an invasion harder.

Taiwan island has a limited number of beaches suitable for landing. These will surely be mined and zeroed by artillery. Also, harbors and airports probably have contingency plans for destruction upon imminent capture.

Much of Taiwan island is unsuitable for heavy armor. Lots of it is mountainous and easily defended. The crowded urban centers would require costly street-fighting to capture, if the defenders are determined.

And these are just from the top of my head

RedMercury said:

Don't forget Quemoy can be quite an obstacle. PLAM either has to bypass it and have a thorn on its side or lose surprise and take it. The island is mountainous and dug-in defenders could be tough to remove.

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Kinmen and Matsu are within shelling range from the mainland, and the PLA's artillery has gotten a lot better since 1958. I believe if they wanted to, they can sink any ship that comes in and out of Kinmen & Matsu. The ROC forces may be well dug-in, but there's nowhere for them to go.

Taiwan is better protected because it's further away. However in time the PLA will acquire long-range precision strike weapons that could saturate Taiwan's defenes. In the Kosovo example, NATO command had strict limitations on targets that they could bomb. I doubt the PLA would be as restrictive. Taiwan's secondary strike capability with HF-3 is very limited and nowhere near the amount of munitions that the PLA can dump in the future.

Ideally, the you wouldn't want to land an invasion fleet on Taiwan's shores right now, or at least not while Taiwan has a functional, centralized government and defenses. Assuming if the PLA has (in the future) the capability to flatten Taiwan's military, prevent external powers from intervening (Japan/US), and enforce an air/naval blocade on the island, then they only need to wait for the island to capitulate to PRC's political demands, or, until the island falls into chaos and internal strife before doing a "police action" landing.

Or, in a carrot/stick and good guy/bad guy approach, the PLA generals would be seen as aggressive and want to conquer Taiwan, while the PRC political leadership would "play nice" and offer peaceful negotiations and accept "many compromises". If there was a less-risky method of achieving your goals, why not take it?

I think you've gone a bit wrong on the possibilties of US intervention. For one thing, just because China has "anti-carrier" weapons doesn't mean that they would actually hit their targets. Remember, US carriers have considerable protection from attack. Then there's also the issue of where USN forces would be deployed, how China would be able to track them, etc.

But more importantly, if the US wants to protect Taiwan it will protect Taiwan. It won't be put off by the latest additions to the Chinese arsenal. Going to war with China would not be taken lightly, so if matters were serious enough for that to happen, not a lot is going to change that. The economy could be a factor, but then again that could easily rebound against China. The US economy is a key part of global trade - problems there would affect the world and thus China too. So I think the US will intervene, provided the Taiwanese leadership didn't recklessly provoke the entire confrontation.

Finn McCool said:

Don't forget the ROCAFs lack of missles. That is a huge issue.

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Remember to be specific. It's the ROCAF's lack of newer missiles for its F-16s - other fighters are better stocked.

Violet Oboe said:

Mr. Fu there must have been a warp in time recently or the flow of time is actually relative for yourself.

Your lucid comments would be exactly right on target if written on 6th October 1996 but unfourtunately a decade of decisive startegic transformation has passed since then.

No US administration even the quite ´peculiar´ of George W. Bush would intervene today or in the forseeable future on behalf of Taiwan. The dramatic risks taken by such a decision are meanwhile in absolutely no sensible relation to prospective benefits and every US admistration will be acutely aware of that simple fact!

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I wouldn't state that with absolute certainty. We are bound by law to intervene. This goes beyond the wishes of one man. But what strategic transformation are you talking about? The US rules the Pacific Ocean. And China's leaders know that.

The risks in invading Taiwan in the first place are too dramatic for the CCP leadership. China wishes to grow economically. That pretty much ends with an invasion scenario. China's leaders also know this. I'm not saying Taiwan will never be reunited with the mainland, but the people of Taiwan will ultimately decide if they will become a part of the mainland. The US isn't going to leave Taiwan to the proverbial wolves. The only caveat to this is if Taiwan aggressively rips apart the status quo. And I don't see that happening.

Achieving the reintegration of Taiwan will obviously require a multifaceted strategy since the execution of a miltary campaign (scenario is ranging from a ´flower war´ to a full scale conflict with outside interventionist powers) will only be the last resort for China´s leaders.

A combination of economic pressure and benefits (remember that China is fully dominant in Taiwan´s trade/investments and around 2 million out of 22 million Taiwanese are already currently living on the mainland!) plus a simultaneous political campaign by pro unification parties and organizations on Taiwan will probably have success in pressuring Taipei to negotiate a broad consensus with Beijing. Although this will certainly not mean straight unification, more some sort of reintegration, one resulting effect of this treaty will be of utmost importance for China: The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 will be effectively dead!

Subsequently the aim of ´One China´ will eventually achieved (around 2015) after some years of negotiations about an extended Hong Kong-style solution (local political system + local military) and no US Navy hegemony in the pacific could ever change something about that.

Sea Dog said:

I wouldn't state that with absolute certainty. We are bound by law to intervene. This goes beyond the wishes of one man. But what strategic transformation are you talking about? The US rules the Pacific Ocean. And China's leaders know that.

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No you are not.. read the TRA again. No way did the act says anything about defending Taiwan..or send troops? It only says " maintain the capacity to resist " and even that does not guarantee it, and could mean anything. Sell arms perhaps.

I only problem will the Act be considered void if Independence is declared by Taiwan.