H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)
- Thread starter Deino
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Building a bomber that could reach/strike the continental USA while also being stealthy enough to penetrate the air defense is a huge task even beyond the B-2 as the USAF has better in air refueling capabilities and forward bases, as well as having a established aviation industry for large bombers beforehand. The H-20 project is far more ambitious than any J-20 or even J-XD fighter project. For the US the B-2 program took around 16 years and for the USSR the Tu 160 program took around 15 years. Both countries however already had an extensive background in building bombers, and what China needs to do is basically build their first strategic bomber larger than the Y-20. and also stealthy/stealthier than B-2 while only being experienced in making the H-6 or Y-20 as large military spec aircraft.
Not to mention the program is in complete and absolute secrecy. A strategic weapon like the H-20 is more akin to the likes of a Type-09VI or the PLARF than a fighter jet. It's not surprising we are seeing Chinese 6th gens flying before the H-20. It's even possible H-20 prototypes exist and there is absolutely no way we would be getting any information, weapons of the new Chinese nuclear triad arsenal have always had another level of secrecy beyond all other platforms. If the H-20 has been reworked as many have suggested, I don't think a supersonic cruising strategic bomber will be shown before 2035.
Not to mention the program is in complete and absolute secrecy. A strategic weapon like the H-20 is more akin to the likes of a Type-09VI or the PLARF than a fighter jet. It's not surprising we are seeing Chinese 6th gens flying before the H-20. It's even possible H-20 prototypes exist and there is absolutely no way we would be getting any information, weapons of the new Chinese nuclear triad arsenal have always had another level of secrecy beyond all other platforms. If the H-20 has been reworked as many have suggested, I don't think a supersonic cruising strategic bomber will be shown before 2035.
IMO unlike a submarine, it'll be difficult to hide a massive strategic bomber that actually requires flying around in the open skies and land on fixed runways in the open. Hiding a J-36/J-XDS sized fighter on the ground is one thing but hiding a bomber that potentially might be the largest of its type ever built is another. I'm reasonably confident that we'll probably get word of H-20 flying within the first few test flights that and insiders like the guancha trio saying that H-20 prototype is already under construction. RN I still have my doubts about a supercruising design considering what kind of novel engine tech would make such a bomber viable while still considering the massive range required without ballooning such a design to unacceptably large sizes.
Reality is that submarines are no smaller than strategic bombers, in fact they are technically much larger in size, and when on land are able to spot just as easily. Just like a submarine however, hiding both platforms are relatively simple, keep the aircraft/submarine in a building all day and only move in the dead of night. XAIC is located in a far more remote region of their respective city than of both CAIG and SAC are in their cities. The immediate location around XAIC only has a population of ~500k and it is far removed from the city center of Xian. Their facilities are also far closer to remote locations like the Gobi dessert, this makes hiding them in the night as simple as hiding a submarine in the water. We get regular photo updates of the Y-20's being built at XAIC but everything that is contained in the buildings are completely unknown. This doesn't mean I'm saying the H-20 is performing flight tests, but if it were receiving flight tests in the near future and we get hinted towards this by Chinese insiders, it's unlikely we'll ever get to see the aircraft until it enters service many years later.
I think that's highly improbable.
While Xi'an AC is located far from downtown Xi'an itself - It's not exactly in the middle of nowhere in the Gobi or Taklamakan Deserts, or between the mountains of the Xizang Plateau. Its immediate surrounding area still has multiple patches of villages spanning for kilometers on all sides, plus at least 2 towns of considerable size within 10 kilometers of the plant.
More importantly, we're talking about not just a large-sized warplane (i.e. not small-sized warplanes like fighter jets or U(C)AVs) - But a large-sized warplane with an overall design that has never been seen flying across Chinese skies before. Once it takes to the sky, it will stand out. And in the age where literally everyone has portable cameras and literal loudspeakers in their pockets, it'll only be a matter of time before someone takes note and spreads the word (or photos/video).
We won't even need to wait until after the H-20 enters service to verify its physical existence.
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What's stopping them from taking off at night at Xian, landing it at a secret airbase in the desert then flying it back to Xian the next night and store the aircraft in a hangar during daylight hours? The Roar of 4x WS-18 at night at Xian's AC will not be unusual at night either and it wouldn't raise any suspicions that it would be a strategic bomber taking off instead of a Y-20 transport.
Maiden flight tests are always done in daytime, primarily for safety and visibility reasons.
During maiden flight of any brand new warplane, you want the pilots of the chase plane (typically a twin-seater fighter) to be able to visually monitor the new warplane's behavior and performance during the flight, and be able to spot anything out of the ordinary, especially in (a lot of) places of the new warplane where the test flight pilots are unable to see themselves. This also ensures that safer and proper emergency responses can be conducted in time in case something goes wrong during the flight.
Basically, you want another pair (or two) of eyes to be on the lookout to make sure that the new warplane can do everything any other warplane does (takeoff, fly, and land) before proceeding any further.
Moreover, there should be a camera mounted on the chase plane to photograph and videotape the new warplane during its maiden flight, of which the photos and video obtained will be used for post-flight analysis and study.
Such abilities will be severely hampered during nighttime.
Also, you want the test flight pilots to be able to observe things clearly during the maiden flight in order to be able to properly respond to any changes to the new warplane itself by eliminating as much foreign-introduced uncertainties as possible, especially when the new warplane is already full of uncertainties itself. Flying at night will only introduce more uncertainties due to poorer visibility, which risks making things worse if something goes wrong during the maiden flight test.
This is not to say that there won't be nighttime flight tests for the H-20. It will be done in the latter stages of the development of the new warplane, particularly when all the fundamental features and flight performances of the H-20 has been conducted and verified.
Ah I see so they must instead disassemble the aircraft and ship the parts by land to a remote airbase then like the Americans.
I'm still quite disappointed in the lack thereof of an attempt at opsec and secrecy for their approach towards the J-36 and the J-XDS. This has already eroded my confidence towards how much they will attempt to veil the H-20 from foreign eyes. I can see from an outsider perspective that those test flights almost appear to be a flashy show of strength and not an earnest attempt was made to conceal the aircraft. I think I've just been trying to self convince myself that they will keep the H-20 more secret due to it's strategic nature of importance. But as you can see doubts are already being cast.
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It's also possible that they simply don't conduct secret tests of it at a different site.
TBH I wouldn't say H-20 as a project is occurring in complete secrecy -- it is basically an open secret that a next generation bomber has been in the works for the PLA for years now. We can all remember AVIC's advertisement a few years back of "the next" with a flying wing under a cover -- which even if it may or may not represent what H-20 actually ends up being, is still a very deliberate eye wink to the public.
I would actually say that H-20 has had less secrecy in the lead up to its emergence (at some point in the near future), than CAC's J-36 and SAC's J-XDS had.
If we are wanting to explain why J-36 and J-XDS have emerged earlier than H-20, IMO it is not explained by H-20 being more secretive or that there are H-20 prototypes which already exist.
I think the best explanation is that they have sought to revise H-20 a number of times (either in concept of operations, subsystems, or overall platform) due to changing projected threat environments and their own technological advancements offering new capabilities, and wanting to carefully define the mission they want H-20 to achieve. Meanwhile, J-36 and J-XDS are arguably more straight forward in terms of their mission profile/theater profile.
This, in addition to that revelation by the PLAAF Vice Commander during a brief Q&A with a Hong Kong journalist in February/March last year. This is pretty much an official acknowledgement of the existence of the H-20 development project.
Indeed.
We pretty much didn't heard of anything close to being indicative, if not affirmative of "why yes, the J-XDs is already in advanced stages of development/will have their first flights soon, etc" until (as far as I remember) that particular Adorable Whale's post several months prior to the Zhuhai Expo 2024 being the start of the "well, what do we have here" moment.
In the meantime, for many of those inside and outside of China who didn't follow the likes of Adorable Whale, Guancha Trio etc (and also this forum, hehe) - The first flights of the J-36 and J-XDS in late-December certainly did come as a major surprise for them.
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