“The picture is fake, but the producer probably knows what the real thing looks like.”
H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)
- Thread starter Deino
- Start date
Well, the very real possibility of that PSed satellite photo being meant for spoofing cannot be discounted. I would advise caution.
Still, taking a closer look at this PSed photo and making some rough measurements by taking the Y-20's wingspan at 50 meters, here are the results:
Provided that the overall configuration and dimension shown by the PSed photo are close to the real thing, then we can say this aircraft is likely slightly larger than the B-2, most likely with the same wing sweep angle as the B-2, and could fit IWB(s) with a maximum length of:
1. ~9 meters (if overall aircraft length is 3x IWB length, B-2-esque);
2. ~10.8 meters (if overall aircraft length is 2.5x IWB length); and
3. ~13.5 meters (if overall aircraft length is 2x IWB length, B-21-esque).
To be on the conservative/safer side, I'd settle with the first two options for the time being.
And once again, I would like to stress that please do take all the above information with a grain of salt for the time being.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
I think the biggest single, but almost insurmountable concern is security.
Unmanned long range bombers will by definition, be expected to operate far from friendly support and deep behind enemy lines. That opens the risk of the bomber being jammed and hacked by opfor.
Also, one of the core roles of strategic bombers will be nuclear delivery. If you are sending bombers out for nuclear strikes, odds are nukes are already airborne and will be popping off en mass. You can also expect to kiss your space based assets goodbye. How well AI can operate in the environment is a massive unknown that will be difficult to simulate.
The flip side is that if you do develop a hack-proof jam-proof super-AI bomber, what happens if they go rogue Terminator style? Or what happens if it just glitches out and thinks it’s the end of the world and it needs to go nuke a capital when nothing has happened?
Given how much excessive care China has shown with the deployment of its nukes even with massive human complements, it’s hard to see them going so far the other way so quickly.
The obvious fork in the road is thus, will the H20 be a slightly bigger manned version of the traditional flying wing subsonic bomber that will operate alongside the unmanned stealth bomber in a similar way to how the J20/35 and future PLAAF 6th gens will work alongside UADFs and other drones (thereby alleviating much of the concern around replying so heavily on AI); or will China pursue a second tech tree and go for speed with the H20 instead.
Given how Chinese military developments have shaped up in recent decades, it’s actually not that incredible to reckon that China might be pursuing dual tech trees with two manned bomber programmes simultaneously under development, one for a subsonic flying wing and the other focused on speed. There have been rumours of a JHXX for years now. Maybe what they got wrong is that instead of being a JH, it’s actually a second H.
How could that be real? That's a satellite image from 2021.
In 2024, it looks like this.
I mean his reply is truth.ouo
I actually believe if the H-20 was supersonic, there's nothing stopping it from acting like a fighter-bomber. It could self-escort by carrying BVRAAMs. Modern BVR technology isn't just for high-maneuverability fighters. Even a large bomber could use a powerful AESA radar to detect threats and fire BVR missiles. In fact, with a bigger radar, it might even be superior to fighters in a BVR fight.
So, if the PLA develops a supersonic bomber, they might designate it as a "JH" as a self-escorting bomber.
Considering how the PLA is developing so many B-21 sized drones, fighter-sized UCAVs, and 6th gen fighters at the same time, there is a possibility they are pursuing both a relatively smaller supersonic "JH" bomber and a larger subsonic flying-wing bomber.
I can't add much to your excellent analysis, except i think i see a cranked leading edge, sort-of like GJ-X. Iirc this was discussed previously as offering a longer fuselage length hence longer bays for the expected JL-1 class weapons that H-20 is supposed to have. Of course, this being a PS picture we might be wasting our time trying to make anything out of it, however since it is said the guy who made it might know how the real H-20 looks like...