H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)
- Thread starter Deino
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Though it is entirely possible that, following b-21 unveiling or following observations made in ukraine and observations of US radars/missiles in last few years, the h-20 project was decided to be retooled and reconfigured. Or if some new tech/materials became feasible. (Possible doesn't mean likely, of course)
It wouldn't be without precedent. B-2 was redesigned well into its development.
It wouldn't be without precedent. B-2 was redesigned well into its development.
It's also possible that with rapid advances in the UAV sector, they can make something cheaper, better and safer to get the job done, instead of a manner bomber.
air launched ballistic missiles don't nearly have enough range for what the H-20 project is meant to accomplish. Why can't the PLAAF operate both H-6's and H-20's and strike UAV's? All have different mission profiles and don't necessarily make each other obsolete. Why has the USAF invested in the B-21? It's because it needed something that was capable of striking deep into heavily defended enemy airspace to deliver any kind of payload. Currently China doesn't have such a capability and it diminishes it's own nuclear triad.
Until you see benefit of having stealth which allows you to bring more firepower to your targets.
ALBM is sure great but.. how many can be carried by an aircraft ? Just 1. Means a squadron of say 12 aircrafts can only strike 12 targets at a time.
Now we put stealth bomber.. then arm it with something like say UMPB-30 or Chinese equivalent of such It may carry at least 12 or even 24 bombs per bomber. Your bomber squadron can then strike 144-288 at a time. Your bomber can even loiter around the battle arena providing Close Air Support. If your bomber have attack radar which should be standard.. you can hunt moving target.
For standoff attack your bomber can carry smaller hypersonic weapons or smol ALBM's like say Russian Kh-15 or US SRAM. Because you can now close in to the enemy thanks to stealth.. you can then carry more of such weapon and replicate the effect of guided bombs.
I do agree with most of what you're saying, I'd like to add that China has capabilities to get all of this done via UAVs, which would naturally be more stealtheir than H-20s. Unit to Unit, UAVs would be cheaper as well, likely with more space and fuel.
Now, the only glitch in this matrix is you dont want to leave Nuclear options to AI. Perhaps, optionally manned part could even be outsourced to a manned variant of the UAV or a dedicated UAV, with no complex internal bays, but more fuel and more limited sensors to stealthly CnC the bomber squad. This is something that China can or is on brink of achieving. Would make everyone scratch their heads about B-21s. B-21s are result of US inertia from mid 201xs. China does not necessarily have to follow the same path and could just leapfrog around as technological advance accelerates exponentially, like they did with NEVs. Ofcourse, this all somewhat speculative and for sake of discourse.
Stealth does NOT "bring more firepower to your targets."
The purpose of stealth is to defeat the enemy's air defense.
After this is done non-stealth, cheaper, aircraft is used to finish the job..... pound the enemy into submission.
If we look at how many tons of bombs and missiles that get dropped it is actually the non-stealth aircraft that does most of the "work".
Using only stealth aircraft would be cost prohibitive. Yes budgets do matter.
Good strategy involves counting capabilities relative to cost, not simply just counting capabilities.
The PLAAF needs a modern version of a "B-52 bomber" something with long range and large capacity. The H-6 is insufficient, but that's a separate topic.
As I have talked about before, I still think H-20 as a project is obsolete for China at the moment. They don't need a subsonic missile truck. For China's strategic priorities for the next 40-50 years, China needs to dominate the first island Chain. Which means they need ways to fight WW3 with Japan, US, Korea, Taiwan all combined if needed and need to absolutely defeat heaviliy saturated air defense network over Japan, Korea and Taiwan. Only then they can achieve dominance in the first island Chain and Eject US out of Asia.
Stealth is a highly vulnerable technology. All you need is a radar that can defeat stealth. You can do that by using low-frequency radars, Use Infrared or other parts of the EM spectrum. Stealth is also heavily dependent on shaping to reflect radar signals away from the sender. But what if Sender and Reciever are in in different locations? Then Stealth shaping has no defense. So, overall anti-stealth technology will only grow stronger. AI will also help with detection of tiny Radar cross section targets from clutter.
Therefore, I don't think Stealth is a game changer technology in a Superpower war. Yes, you must have it, but you can't rely on it to win the battle for you, you need other advantages.
That other advantages will be speed, manuverability and quantity. So, you need systems that are supersonic, highly manuverable and if possible, then cheap. Thus, Hypersonic missiles and cheap drones will be a decider. In terms of manned systems, The main game changer will be a fighter bomber that will be supersonic, manuverable enough to evade missile fired against it, and also stealthy. Then it come close to air defenses and perform strike missions and SEAD
So, I do believe PLA will prioritise JH-XX instead of H-20.
Okay, there is another way a subsonic missile truck makes sense, that is if that bomber is able to strike into continental US from Chinese mainland. That will be a big asset since conventional ICBM will not be cheap. China needs cheap ultra long range way to directly attack continental US. That way, it can deter any US fantasy to fight China while keeping its production base and other important bases safe inside the continental US.
An extremely long range bomber. Not 8000KM range, but 20 thousand KM, able to break through the choke point of the first island chain, come close to US, fire its missiles and then flee, without being detected by US assets will be a good asset. So, that could also be what PLA goes for. Maybe H-20 is not big enough to have that level of range. Maybe, this is the change that is being made so that H-20 has more range.
Stealth is a highly vulnerable technology. All you need is a radar that can defeat stealth. You can do that by using low-frequency radars, Use Infrared or other parts of the EM spectrum. Stealth is also heavily dependent on shaping to reflect radar signals away from the sender. But what if Sender and Reciever are in in different locations? Then Stealth shaping has no defense. So, overall anti-stealth technology will only grow stronger. AI will also help with detection of tiny Radar cross section targets from clutter.
Therefore, I don't think Stealth is a game changer technology in a Superpower war. Yes, you must have it, but you can't rely on it to win the battle for you, you need other advantages.
That other advantages will be speed, manuverability and quantity. So, you need systems that are supersonic, highly manuverable and if possible, then cheap. Thus, Hypersonic missiles and cheap drones will be a decider. In terms of manned systems, The main game changer will be a fighter bomber that will be supersonic, manuverable enough to evade missile fired against it, and also stealthy. Then it come close to air defenses and perform strike missions and SEAD
So, I do believe PLA will prioritise JH-XX instead of H-20.
Okay, there is another way a subsonic missile truck makes sense, that is if that bomber is able to strike into continental US from Chinese mainland. That will be a big asset since conventional ICBM will not be cheap. China needs cheap ultra long range way to directly attack continental US. That way, it can deter any US fantasy to fight China while keeping its production base and other important bases safe inside the continental US.
An extremely long range bomber. Not 8000KM range, but 20 thousand KM, able to break through the choke point of the first island chain, come close to US, fire its missiles and then flee, without being detected by US assets will be a good asset. So, that could also be what PLA goes for. Maybe H-20 is not big enough to have that level of range. Maybe, this is the change that is being made so that H-20 has more range.
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