But what is the expected use case for JDAM/UPMK-style munitions in a Pacific conflict? Such short range renders any aircraft, even VLO ones, extremely vulnerable to all manner of air defences. Is it really worth risking expensive platforms just to deliver bigger warheads? Surely it would be more efficient to simply acquire and expend larger quantities of standoff munitions.
That is indeed a valid concern.
However, this is more of a spear-vs-shield scenario:
- Modern long-range SAM systems are capable of detecting and intercepting enemy targets at ranges as far as 200-300 kilometers away, if not farther away. Such capability can be further enhanced and reinforced with more ISR support in types, vectors and depths, whether those be land-based (land-based radars and sensors), sea-based (AEGIS-equipped warships) or air-based (AEW&C aircrafts and fighters). They can employ soft-kill means (i.e. EW jamming, decoys) to reduce chances of enemy munitions hitting friendly assets as well.
- In the meantime, with VLO design and sufficient EW & decoy support to disable/deceive enemy detection systems, attacking aircrafts are capable of getting closer to the enemy targets before releasing their payloads, and/or that their payloads (LO or otherwise) will be able to get closer to their targets before the enemy radars and sensors can pick them up. There is also the option to deploy ECM and decoy munitions that can accompany strike munitions on their way to their targets to further degrade enemy defense capabilities.
Hence, it really depends on a multitude of factors at play.
However, speaking of solely strike platforms - If the risks of conducting strikes using JDAM-type munitions are judged to be too high for certain targets and/or areas, given what Yankee has mentioned about the JH-XX - Having manned platforms accompanied by (and piloting) a number of VLO UCAVs each is certainly the way to go forward. Those UCAVs can travel 100-200 kilometers forward of their manned counterparts and drop JDAM-type munitions once arriving at mission area while being controlled by manned platforms that are sticking back at safer standoff distances with their longer-range strike munitions (subsonic, supersonic or hypersonic missiles).
The good thing is that now China has the GJ-11 with 2 tons of max payload capacity and a purported max range of 4000+ kilometers. In the meantime, to pile on top of said strike option, China would need:
1. GJ-11 to enter PLAAF service (not just PLAN); and
2. GJ-11 to be equipped with mid-air refueling capability (plus a Chinese counterpart to the MQ-25 would be a welcoming bonus); and/or
3. A new flying-wing UCAV model with improved VLO characteristics, greater endurance and a larger payload capacity.
During wartime, risks have to be taken on a multitude of occasions. There is a need to strive a balance between strike effectiveness and budgetary constrains.